More Pre-Season Bets

I pulled the trigger on two more pre-season bets today, betting the Lakers to win more than 61.5 games, and the Spurs to win more than 54.5.  I expect the Lakers to win 70, and the Spurs 60 if they remain reasonably healthy.  The Celtics were a little more difficult to bet, with a line of 56.5, but I probably could have bet them as well.  With the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels they simply cannot be challenged in the East.    

These are somewhat silly bets, because they carry a very high injury risk.  If the Lakers lose Kobe or Gasol, or the Spurs lose Duncan or Parker, I simply cannot win.  Contrast that to my Warriors bet, for which I have a very large injury cushion.  It is hard to pick a player on this Warriors team whose loss would automatically take them out of the running to win 35 games.

For this reason, I kept these bets very small in relation to my Warriors bet, and waited until now to inform my readers of them.  I don’t want anyone following me on these.  They are for fun.

I did NOT, sadly, bet the Clippers to win over 34.5.  I think they are still very likely to pull this off despite the Griffin injury, but I just could not bring myself to give the bookies the same price they were offering before the injury.  They didn’t move their line, of course. You can’t do feltbot like that!  No, no, no.

I also did not bet the Spurs at 7-1 to win the Western Conference, although as I mentioned in my Spurs forecast, I think this price is wrong.  The reason I didn’t bet is I doubt the Spurs will have the better regular season record and thus home court advantage in the conference final. And the price on that series will undoubtedly be wrong as well.  The Lakers will be made massive favorites regardless of how tough the Spurs look. Which means I wouldn’t be able to lay my Spurs bet off at a good price, which is what I would normally do at that point. So I might as well wait until the two teams meet to bet the Spurs, if I still want to.  The best bets in that case will be attacking the game lines, not the series price.

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