Stepping off the Bobtrain

The Charlotte Bobcats blew out the Wizards in Washington in their last game 92-76.  Nick Young, the Wizards promising young shooting guard, had averaged 20 pts. in his previous two games.  Jackson got him out of the game quickly, by posting him up and drawing two quick fouls.  Young finished 4-11 for 10 pts.  The Bobcats now have a four game winning streak, that includes a win against the Cavs. They are now 6-1 ATS since the Jackson trade, 5-1 ATS since I began the Bobcats Bet.

When Stephen Jackson joined the Bobcats, the national media sneered.  No one picked the Bobcats to make the playoffs, and many scoffed at the idea that Jackson would make them better.  Kelly Dwyer wrote a particularly hateful piece, in which he stated that both the Bobcats and Stephen Jackson got what they deserved.  In the last few days, however, this has begun to change.  National commentators have begun to take notice of the Bobcats’ sudden resurgence.  Jalen Rose just picked them for the 5th seed in the East.  And John Hollinger — the same snake-oil salesman who hated the Chandler for Okafor trade, and who pegged the Bobcats for 29 wins pre-season, and whose “Trade Machine” predicted that the Jackson acquisition would result in -1 win for the Bobcats — has now jury-rigged the Bobcats into the fifth-rank of his Power Rankings in the East as well, to avoid looking like a fool.

It is now obvious to many, including the worst of the national NBA press, that the Bobcats are a nascent playoff team in the East. Now is the time to pile on this bet, right?  Ride this Bobtrain into the sunset?

Wrong!  I got on this train when no one believed that Stephen Jackson would make the Bobcats a playoff team but myself. Now that everyone is piling on, it is time for me to step off.  Picking sports teams to ride is not unlike trading the stock market.  There is a well-known canard in the stock market that you have to “sell the news.”  That is, the time to get out of a rising stock is right before the news is published that lets the public know why it has been going up.  As the suckers are getting in, the pros are getting out.  Sadly, it is time to sell the news on the Charlotte Bobcats.

Consider today’s line:  The Bobcats are getting +3 at home against the Celtics.  I know its a home game, but 3 points against the best team in the East?  The last two times Charlotte played the Celtics at home, they were getting +8.5 and +9.5.  Obviously, the betting public, aided by the media, has started to take notice of the Bobcats, and the bookies are making the necessary adjustment.

I still love the Bobcats with Stephen Jackson.  I think they can and will play even better than they have been playing. Particularly when Boris Diaw gets over the ankle woes that have been plaguing him.  I think they are a lock to make the playoffs.  And I even like the way that Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace match up against Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in tonight’s game against the Celtics.  They might very well win straight up.  But I will not bet this line.  When I bet, I bet for profit, not for fun.  I do not like to give the bookies a fair bet, ever. I’m rooting for the Bobcats.  I hope they go on a long run. But from now on, they’ll be doing it without me.

I went 5-1 on the Bobcats Bet.  Minus the juice, that nets a profit of  3.9 units on a 6 wager play.  Not a bad return.  The Thaiblonde, feltbot’s ravenous girlfriend, is going to be eating steak for the next few weeks!

Update:  Since writing this, the line has moved from +3 to +3.5.  Ha, nice try.