Vacation Thread and Mavs Bet Update

Yes, just as things are once again getting heated in Warriors land with Biedrins-gate, feltbot is off to the Mexican riviera for a much needed stint of Warriors rehab.  I’ll be gone 10 days, missing the next 6 games, including the brutal 4 road games in 5 nights stretch next week.  It’s probably just as well. My Lagavulin bill has been killing me.

Feel free to continue the discussion here as you see fit.  Perhaps some of you guys can recap the interesting stuff for me.  One thing that will be very interesting to watch is just how Biedrins reacts to being called out by Nellie.  I like Biedrins, and know from observing his play over the last several years that he has a great deal of competitive pride.  On the other hand, he has a very considerable psychological block against going to the free throw line right now. Which way will it go?

Mavs bet update: Dallas was a -2 home favorite against the Lakers tonight. I had some trepidation about that line, but after I researched it (I use the excellent matchup reports at SBRForum.com) my concerns eased.  The line was quite reasonable by recent historical standards. The bookies have not yet moved their lines in reaction to the trade, and so I placed my bet on the Mavs.

Then I found out right before tipoff that Caron Butler wasn’t playing. A reaction to some medicine he took. Aaaaargh!

No more small ball.

I needn’t have been concerned, though, because the Mavs still wound up covering, winning 101-96.  I’m guarded about reading too much into this game. Yes it was in Dallas, Yes the Lakers were on a back to back road game, Yes Kobe is not yet completely right after an extended layoff.  But still I noticed a couple of things that should greatly concern Laker fans. The first is that Brendan Haywood contained Andrew Bynum, and Dallas outrebounded the Lakers by 5. This Dallas team is HUGE, every bit as big and a lot more physical than the Lakers.  And they will get even bigger when Butler plays off-guard at 6-7″, and Eric Dampier returns.

Unlike Nellie and the We Believe Warriors, the Lakers won’t be able to punish the lumbering size of the Mavs by running, because Phil Jackson doesn’t believe in running.  If Phil Jackson let Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar run, then he would no longer be Big Chief Triangle. Capisce?

Conference finals preview?

The second eye-opener for me in this game was Shawn Marion’s defense on Kobe.  It was unbelievable.  Marion simply would not let Kobe get around him, and his length and jumping ability clearly bothered Kobe’s shot.  Kobe shot 9-23 in the game, and only 2-6 in the fourth quarter.  Remember how much Paul Pierce bothered Kobe in the finals?  Well, Shawn Marion, even at this stage of his career, is Paul Pierce times two on defense.

I didn’t consider this possibility, that Marion would guard Kobe, after the Butler trade.  I knew that Butler was a great defender with size, and automatically assumed he would be taking Kobe.  But now it is apparent to me that Dallas has TWO players who can make life tough for Kobe.

Combine this with the Mavs huge size, and their superior point guard play, and you have a very interesting situation developing in the West.  The plot has gotten much, much thicker.

The Mavs are now 4-0 straight up, and 2-1-1 against the spread since I began the Mavs bet. (The tie came in the Indiana game, when the Mavs gave up 10 points of a 19 point lead in the final three minutes to win by only 9.)  So it’s safe to say that I still like this bet, and would be looking to continue it if I weren’t going on vacation.  So long as I satisfied myself that the bookies had not adjusted. The bookies will eventually adjust to the new strength of the Mavs, and I always stop my plays the moment that happens.

I will of course not be betting the Mavs while in Mexico, nor researching the lines for you, so if you have been inclined to follow me on this, make sure you do your research on every game.

Adios muchachos!

35 Responses to Vacation Thread and Mavs Bet Update

  1. Enjoy your vacation. That Philadelphia game tempered my enthusiasm (temporarily?), kept it from becoming “irrational exuberance” which as we all know is a bad thing.

    Rest up, and come back with the Warriors on the cusp of getting Nellie his record. (Oops. Is that irrational exuberance again?)

  2. Denver:

    My hopes sank when I heard Ellis had a bad back and Watson was out, Watson especially, because he’s shown a lot of energy which might have made a difference.

    When will this team ever catch a break?

  3. Detroit:
    New assistant coach Raja Bell appears have had a strong influence on Anthony Randolph. He had his best defensive night ever in addition to 6 steals, no personal fouls. The first night Biedrins shows some life, he’s goes out fortunately Ronny had plent of fire (and brimstone) to impact the game.

  4. Detroit:

    Aperacer — you mean Anthony Morrow?

    Curry only took three shots in the fourth quarter, surprising, since the other guys weren’t shooting well and the game was then close. What the box score will not reveal is how much he kept the other guys in the game, start to finish.

  5. Too many Anthonys, yeah Morrow had a great game.

  6. Feltbot,

    Here are some highlights of the last game, just in case you take a break from the beach!

  7. That game certainly wasn’t pretty but I’ll take the win. Seven more to go…it’s gonna be close!

  8. I think they get the win tonight but getting a second will take a miracle. Reggie Williams is probably not a miracle but he is intriguing. A scoring wing, but not a pure shooter ala Morrow. All these D leaguers seem to have great first games, he may be a big help tonight.

  9. Biedrins and Ellis out for the road trip.

    When will this team ever catch a break?

  10. Nivrag,

    And I just heard on KNBR that the Warriors called up another D-Leauge player, Reggie Williams, from the Sioux Falls Skyforce. That’s the fifth call-up for the Warriors, which ties an NBA record.

    http://www.nba.com/dleague/news/williams_100302.html

    This is all Don Nelson’s fault…yeah, right.

  11. Miami:

    I had to see a game decided by refereeing, and this may well have happened. Three of the fouls called on Curry were utterly questionable, and probably two against Watson. Not only did the fouls take them out of the game, they took their quick hands out of the defense when they went back in down the stretch, when they were only two down — and Watson had six steals.

  12. Just to get it on the record, the Warriors lost to the Heat in Miami by 4. For those who didn’t see the game, this was a well-played and coached game by the dubs–a probable win if played at the Oracle. They had their chances, down by 2 Morrow missed a 3 with 11 seconds left and still down by 2 Turiaf fumbled the ball with a wide open dunk staring him in the face, 4 seconds on the clock. Oh, well.

    Reggie Williams looked like he will more than fit in: 20 minutes, an efficient 10 points on 4of7, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, Nellie had to be pleased. He was fun to watch, he may be the best reason to watch the next 4 games on this road trip.

    On to Orlando.

  13. WheresMyChippy

    Sigh… Eventually this has to catch up to the NBA. The Warriors cannot continue to be F’d by the officials year after year so blatantly without people taking notice.

    Does Stern just hate the Bay Area? Don Nelson? Cohan? (Alright, that one’s justified but you don’t punish the players for an owner’s incompetence.)

    I’m really sick of seeing this EVERY game.

  14. At the risk of losing my remaining credibility (assuming I ever had some) on this website, I must say that with the exception of his brute strength, watching Duane Wade I was reminded of Monta. Same heighth, same incredible quicks, same sense of being ‘the man’. Monta could be called ‘Baby Wade’ and it wouldn’t be a stretch.

    Better yet, I like Monta and hope he doesn’t get run out of town by fans who find him an easy target to blame for the Warriors woes. Losing the 6th highest scorer in the league would sicken me. If the nickname Baby Wade caught on it would help.

  15. Shooting threes: 9 of 31. Morrow had a particularly bad evening shooting 2 of 10. There’s your loss.

  16. Orlando:

    Ooooooooof. . . .

  17. D-League reality. We even made Matt Barnes look good. At least he hustled.

  18. Drinking margaritas at an Internet bar in cabo harbor. Thanks for the updates guys!

  19. Drooling saliva on my couch at 2:00 AM after dozing off during the fourth quarter. Thanks for the high draft pick, Warriors!

  20. Pre-Game Atlanta:
    Pay back time for the Hawks, I hope it’s at least competative.

  21. Atlanta:
    A good loss. Don’t know whay CJ didn’t come in sooner. I think Nellie blew this one. Curry was amazing.

  22. Yes, good night overall for Curry. However, I’m looking forward to the day when he can limit the turnovers due to those one-handed hot-shot passes.

    Looking forward to the Charlotte game. I know it’s the end of a back-to-back, but I think they’ll be up to it for two reasons:

    1. Going against Stephen Jackson again.

    2. SC not only playing in front of his dad but also a sizable Davidson crowd in the stands. No doubt much of the screaming will be for him.

    Stephen Curry, it’s showtime.

  23. Especially “the 0ne-handed hot-shot pass” & Bibby grabbed his arm with no call by the ref! That was sweet?

  24. Bob Fitzgerald on KNBR Friday made the comment that the Warriors, given their injuries and short rosters, should get blown out almost every game. They didn’t get blown out last night, in fact were down one with 50 seconds to play.

    I know, we’re tired of close games. . . .

    Very nice ball movement, involvement of all players, and we showed a lot of offensive looks. CJ got the ball a lot the first quarter and did well. Maggette provided some energy and muscle when we needed it 2nd. half. And he worked with the team. It was his pass to Curry that got us within one.

    So many have argued about trading, dumping players (Maggette, Curry over Ellis, etc.). In this league, given the realities of the schedule, salaries, etc. we need every body we have. If Ellis had played last night, more players could have gotten some rest, especially Curry, and maybe they would have had the energy late to get over the hump.

    I don’t want to see Curry play 48 minutes every game next year.

  25. My attempt to imbed a vid like DW above:

    Stephen Curry Davidson Highlights

    [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9vmoQ5WABU&hl=en_US&fs=1&]

  26. I’d love to see Curry play 48 minutes. Ste-fun is a blast to watch. But definitely, he couldn’t last. I think Nelson could have given him a rest in the 4th (at least a minute) and put CJ in. Tonight should be great, hope we have the gas in the tank.

  27. Byrtex,

    Some things are so good they’re worth repeating.

    Good SI article on Steph here:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/frank_hughes/03/05/stephen.curry/

  28. Atlanta:

    Turiaf went out with knew problems after 7 minutes, which left all center duties to Hunter and pretty much sealed the deal. We had no inside presence, and Turiaf’s play outside has been working the past games, opening up the offense.

    When will this team ever catch a break?

  29. knee problems — sory

  30. Atlanta:

    Steph’s mom was there with a new hair-do. Wow, we all miss her.

    Also Curry got the loudest cheers for a while when he hit. If he were hot, he might have gotten the crowd on the Warrior’s side.

  31. Even without Ronny, the W’s still had chances (thanks to the Bobcats) but just couldn’t hit enough shots. But it’s clear how much Ronny helps keep the ball moving.

  32. Didn’t see much of the game other than to tune in late with them only one point down and then fall apart with turnovers and blocked shots at the rim. Out of gas on a back-to-back?

    One thing I haven’t seen discussed enough is the number of NBA players who have been injured this year who also played on their national teams this past summer. I believe Beidrins and Turiaf are amongst them and both have missed a lot of games. Co-incidence? I bet there is a strong connection.

  33. Oregony you bring up a valid point. The list internal players who have missed NBA playing time is long and includes Pau Gasol and Tony Parker. No question that year round play takes it’s toll. But there’s nothing that can be done about it. Almost every player would not pass up a chance to play for their home land which includes US players and the Olympics. NBA contracts do not prohibit such offseason play, at least that I am aware of.

  34. Feltbot,

    Highlights of the Charlotte game.

  35. Thanks for all the updates, video and otherwise guys!