Well, after getting back from vacation yesterday, I had one day to qualify for the 10k World Poker Tour in San Jose, and managed to win my first satellite. So I’ll be extending my break from blogging for at least another day (and hopefully several more!) to play in this tournament. If you want to follow my progress, I’ll be posting updates on Twitter on my feltbot account.
Jump for my last Mavs bet update:
Mavs bet update: I don’t have time to go back and add up the games since I started this coverage, but here’s a summary from SBRForum.com: The Mavs have won 10 straight games, and are either 5-4-1 or 5-3-2 against the spread in that span. I think it’s the latter because I pushed a game before I left for vacation.
I would classify this Mavs bet so far as a very good play, that only achieved a marginal return. A few complicating factors occurred: Butler missed a few games at the beginning of the bet, and Hayward, who had been playing great since the trade, as well as Terry have missed the last few games. Terry will continue to be out for a few weeks.
During this 10 game winning streak, the Mavs covered all of their away games, but had a losing record against the spread at home. Most of those home games had quite big spreads of 8 points or more. I have not checked those spreads to see if they were reasonable, so I’m not sure what to make of that. But this is a very old team, that has been playing short handed, so perhaps they have been conserving energy when playing with the lead. Or perhaps those home lines were out of whack. Or perhaps Mavs bettors simply got unlucky. One thing seems clear: the Mavs are a greatly improved team since the trade, and could prove to be a serious threat in the playoffs.
Tomorrow they are playing the TWolves in Minnesota, giving up 6 1/2 points. This is a very reasonable line, as the Mavs have recently been giving up 8 or more in Minnesota, and covering. But muddying the picture is that the Mavs are playing very shorthanded right now, with both of their centers out as well as Terry. And Minnesota played them tough in Dallas last week, losing by only three.
So I won’t be betting them tomorrow, and am calling off this play. Confusing injury factors have entered the mix, and I’m not sure whether any edge remains. It doesn’t help that I haven’t been able to follow the last several games, or check the lines. I don’t like to bet unless I can clearly define my edge, and I don’t feel like I can do that right now.