This is going to be brief, because I didn’t see much of interest in the pre-season win totals. But I did make a couple of bets, and in the tradition of this blog I want to play my cards face up for my readers. I found it very interesting that the Warriors win total was 30.5 (-130 over [the juice on this bet has now gone up considerably, indicating betting interest on the over]) while the Washington Wizards win total was 32.5 (-130 over, EVEN under). Are the Wizards, led by a rookie, and with the always unpredictable Gilbert Arenas playing a major role, really 2 games better than this Warriors squad, even accounting for the conferences? I’m comfortable wagering a 5th round pick on Arenas to produce stats in fantasy basketball, but it’s quite another thing to wager money on him to produce wins.
As for the Warriors, it seems funny that they are going off 3 games worse than they were last season, doesn’t it? It’s hard to name the actual reason why that might be, given the addition of David Lee, but the initials of the reason are probably KS. The coaching change and the thinness of the Warriors bench, in particular at center and power forward and point guard (are those important positions?) are the only reasons not to like the over on the Warriors. Their starting 5 is playoff caliber. And we’re being offered quite a discount to believe something good might happen this year. Keith Smart figuring it out, a good trade, whatever.
I’m betting a decent amount on the Warriors over, and a much smaller bet, for fun, on the Wizards under.
The only other line I saw that I had an opinion on was the Cavs at 30.5 (over -105, under -125). The same win total as the Warriors? That’s insulting! I like under, but didn’t bet.