Monthly Archives: October 2012

The Soreness Element: 2012-13 Golden State Warriors Preview

There’s a soreness element….  – Bob Myers

I’m going out of town this weekend, and just realized I won’t have time for my typical preseason Warriors forecast. This might upset me more if I felt like I had something useful to say about this upcoming season. But I actually don’t.

Joe Lacob has created a team that is utterly hostage to the ankle situations of Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry. Everything about this season is currently up in the air, starting with who will play, and ending with what style of basketball they will play. (Assuming of course, that the Warriors’ style of play will be influenced by the players they have available. That has never been a given for Joe Lacob’s amateur coaches.) What could I possibly say at this point about the 2012-13 Warriors that isn’t rampant speculation? Nothing.

So I’ll just let a few numbers do the talking for me. These three numbers, to be precise:

52.5

60.5

36.5

These three numbers express the future of this season’s Golden State Warriors far more eloquently than I can. Do you know what they are?

Jump for the cold, hard math:            Continue reading

2012-2013 NBA Western Conference Rankings

I’ve been waiting for Bogot long enough. With the start of the NBA season around the corner, it’s time for me to once again start putting my opinions on the line.

What follows are my regular season rankings for the Western Conference. Please note that my playoff rankings might differ considerably by the end of the season. My opinion of the Lakers is the most obvious example. If they manage to reach the end of the season with a healthy and rested (and somewhat deeper) roster, I will rank them higher for the playoffs.

Along with my ranking, I’m going to offer opinions of the Las Vegas regular-season win total lines for some teams. But when I offer a win total opinion in this post, that does NOT mean that I am going to bet this line. (I need a substantial perceived edge to bet. I’ll let you know which lines I’m betting in a later post.) Today’s opinions are just another way of stating which teams I think are over/undervalued headed into the regular season.                        Continue reading

More 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts

This is Part Two of my 2012-2013 Sleepers and Busts review. In Part One, I discussed Jrue Holiday, Dorell Wright, Kawhi Leonard, Monta Ellis, David Lee and Derrick Favors (Sleepers); and Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, Anthony Davis, OJ Mayo, John Wall and Jeremy Lin (Busts).

It’s mid-training camp now, and we have an actual idea who’s in shape, who’s injured, and how the position battles are shaping up. I’ve kicked into my serious draft preparation, because this is the sweet spot for holding your draft — the moment where a little work can give you a serious informational edge over your rivals.

I’ve reviewed the rosters and depth charts of every NBA team, and assembled a list below of players that I think are undervalued or overvalued relative to their rankings on Basketball Monster (the best ranking service I know). That is how I think of Sleepers and Busts — in terms of value. You may think you have identified a breakout candidate, but guess what? If the ranking services like Yahoo and CBS agree with you, then your breakout candidate will not be undervalued in your draft. In fact, he could very well be overvalued!

My picks might seem unconventional as a result. I like to think against the grain, because that’s the only way you can crush your draft.

Jump for fantasy value!                   Continue reading

Why Brandon Rush Must Start

We’ve heard a lot in the press lately about the raging battle for the Warriors’ starting small forward role. It appears to be a two-way battle between last year’s standout reserve guard Brandon Rush, and the promising rookie lottery pick, Harrison Barnes. Aging all-star Richard Jefferson is apparently not in the running, despite the fact that he’s been the starting small forward on some pretty good teams every single year of his career.

Today’s news adds some fuel to the fire, as Barnes is slotted to start tonight’s exhibition against Maccabi Haifa, after Rush started the first two preseason games.

I’m not buying the hype on Barnes starting though. Jackson probably does want to get a look at Barnes playing with the first unit. But it is Maccabi Haifa. And the argument against Harrison Barnes starting for the Warriors this season is simply too strong. But that’s not the right way to put it. Here’s a better way:

If they want to win this season, the Golden State Warriors absolutely must start Brandon Rush.

Why? Jump for a two word answer.                          Continue reading

First Look: Warriors 83 Jazz 80 — Preseason

Had a great time at the Warriors game tonight, courtesy of my poker buddy Micah Brown and his killer halfcourt season tickets. Thanks Micah!

Jump for a few of my observations:                       Continue reading