More 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts

This is Part Two of my 2012-2013 Sleepers and Busts review. In Part One, I discussed Jrue Holiday, Dorell Wright, Kawhi Leonard, Monta Ellis, David Lee and Derrick Favors (Sleepers); and Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, Anthony Davis, OJ Mayo, John Wall and Jeremy Lin (Busts).

It’s mid-training camp now, and we have an actual idea who’s in shape, who’s injured, and how the position battles are shaping up. I’ve kicked into my serious draft preparation, because this is the sweet spot for holding your draft — the moment where a little work can give you a serious informational edge over your rivals.

I’ve reviewed the rosters and depth charts of every NBA team, and assembled a list below of players that I think are undervalued or overvalued relative to their rankings on Basketball Monster (the best ranking service I know). That is how I think of Sleepers and Busts — in terms of value. You may think you have identified a breakout candidate, but guess what? If the ranking services like Yahoo and CBS agree with you, then your breakout candidate will not be undervalued in your draft. In fact, he could very well be overvalued!

My picks might seem unconventional as a result. I like to think against the grain, because that’s the only way you can crush your draft.

Jump for fantasy value!                  

ADJUSTMENTS

Before I start, I’d like to make some corrections to Part One in light of training camp developments:

Derrick Favors is no longer on my sleeper list, because Enes Kanter has lost 50 lbs. and is looking like an absolute monster. They’re going to eat each others’ minutes.

Jrue Holiday and Dorell Wright are greatly dependent for their value on the health of Andrew Bynum. There’s greater risk there than I previously thought.

John Wall has of course gotten injured, and fallen from #19 where I thought he was overvalued, to #41. At that level, I’m just guessing.

Dirk Nowitzki has come up with a bum knee that he might need scoped. So while my opinion of Anthony Davis hasn’t changed, his value relative to Dirk has.

UNDERVALUED (SLEEPERS)

Michael Beasley: Big time sleeper @83. Finally with the right coach for his talents, uptempo and offensive-minded Alvin Gentry. Beasley’s the best offensive player on the Suns, and he’s already being urged to let it fly from three. Grab him!

Damian Lillard: @64, not sure how much he can overachieve. But there is literally no one behind him on Portland’s depth chart, which makes him very low risk. He killed it in summer league, and he’s still killing it so far in the preseason.

Pau Gasol: Projected @26 after ranking 13 and 18 the last two seasons. I understand the thinking that Dwight Howard will take away points and rebounds. What they’re missing: In the Princeton offense, the Lakers will be forcing the ball to Pau in the high post. A lot. Pau’s assists totals should explode.

Alonzo Gee: @103 with 32 min/gm projected. This is thin, because Basketball Monster is good. If you’re ranking service has him lower though, take note: Gee is the primary beneficiary of the Cavs naming CJMiles as their starting two over Dion Waiters.

Mike Dunleavy: @142, 26 min/gm. Excelled off the bench last season, but who else do the Bucks have at SF now that Delfino is gone? Please don’t say MBam — you can’t play a non-shooter at 3 in this league. He’s an undersized 4.

Stephen Jackson: @190, 22 min. Seriously? Two years ago Jackson was the #35 player in the league. I have a hard time believing he doesn’t work his way into serious minutes for the Spurs this season. Danny Green ahead of him? Huh. Jack proved he’s still a great player in the playoffs, guarding Kevin Durant. Sit down, Green. And one other thing: this is a contract year for Stack Jack.

Kevin Martin: Perfectly valued @56, after an injury-wracked season last year. Just want to point out two things: Horrible team. Contract year.

Jason Terry: Why in the world is he @99 when the last two seasons he was ranked 61 and 58? Avery Bradley will be out until December and Courtney Lee won’t challenge his minutes. And he’s playing with a dude named Rondo! Jump on Terry if he falls to the 80′s.

Eric Bledsoe: @260, 15 min/gm. This is as deep as a sleeper can get, but Bledsoe proved that he’s a terrific player in the cauldron of the playoffs last season. Undersized at the two but still a ferocious defender, I see him becoming the number three guard in the Clips rotation, taking minutes from Crawford and Billups. Does that mean you can draft him? Probably not, but I just wanted to get on record with this guy. Good player, and if Paul goes down, immediate stud.

Dion Waiters: You can’t draft him if he’s not starting. But keep an eye on him at midseason. I believe in this kid.

[10-17 Update: Dare I speak the name Andray Blatche? Currently off the board @250, he was the 89th ranked player two years ago getting only 28 min/gm. He has re-dedicated himself under Avery Johnson's wing, is apparently in great shape, and has been killing it so far this preseason. And he'll be playing with DWill. Hmmm. Intriguing late round sleeper.]

[10-20 Update: Jonas Valanciunas and Andreas Bargnani. I haven't seen JV play yet, but Toronto is raving about him, and he's already impressing in the box scores even though he's not yet in shape -- he sat out the first half of training camp. Does this mean he's a steal @164? I'm not sure, because Basketball Monster forecasts him at 26 minutes, which is probably right. But I'm wondering what the presence of the kid in the middle will have on Bargnani, who will now be sliding to the spread four to start the game. I think this will help keep Bargnani healthy and fresh, may increase his minutes over the 34 forecast, and also could help his horrid rebounding numbers. Ranked @73, Bargani might be worth a higher pick.

Stephen Curry (bust) and Jarret Jack (sleeper): Curry has now suffered two incidents with his bad ankle that caused him to be taken out of preseason games. I think it's safe to say at this point that the likelihood of him surviving the season healthy is low, and of returning to his rookie form is even lower. It would be insane to draft him @6 where he is projected, and it might be wise to take him off your board altogether. Let someone else gamble their fantasy season on him, unless he drops far enough that he's screaming to be taken.

This makes Jack a definite sleeper @173. I think it's likely he'll exceed his 25 min/gm forecast even in games Curry plays.]

OVERVALUED (BUSTS)

Kobe: Projected @11 after ranking 7 and 9 the last two seasons. How could that be overvalued? I just think in the Princeton offense, the ball’s going to be in Kobe’s hands a lot less than people think. That 5 assist projection in particular looks wrong. This could be the year that Kobe spots up, and trusts his teammates to carry the load in the regular season.

Mo Williams: A lot of risk taking him where he’s projected @59. Utah needs a point guard that can feed the post, and that is SO not Mo Williams. I could see him actually losing his job mid-season to Jamaal Tinsley, who’s suddenly in the best shape of his career.

Eric Gordon: Still feeling his knee, being held out of training camp. A major risk @31, particularly for a player so reliant on athleticism.

Jeff Teague: Can you risk drafting this guy @37, when Devin Harris is behind him?

Ryan Anderson: @35, 35 min/gm. It is astonishing to me that people haven’t realized that Anderson and Anthony Davis play the same position. Nobody seriously believes either of these guys can play the three, do they? And NO isn’t going to throw Davis to the Wolves at the five, are they? I don’t believe in Anderson’s minutes.

Brandon Bass: Can a player @131 be a bust? Yes, if they’re projected at 32 min/gm with Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger behind them.

Ersan Ilyasova: Projected @50 and 33 min/gm after ranking 72 with 28 min  last season. Really? I love Ilyasova as a player, but take a look at the Bucks’ loaded front court this season: Dalembert, Gooden, Udoh, MBam, Henson, Pryzbilla, Sanders. Is he really going to get 5 minutes more this season than last?

Isaiah Thomas: Too risky @77, 30 min/gm.  The Kings picked up Aaron Brooks, and still have that guy named Jimmer that the down-to-the-cloth Maloofs and everyone else in SacTown will be chanting for.

George Hill: Probably ok @91. But I’ve never believed in Hill as a starting caliber pg, and DJ Augustin is behind him. Pass.

Lou Williams: Fairly valued @94. I mention him because he’s considered a sleeper by many. Don’t fall for it! At 6-1″ 175, he’s a big underdog to get starters’ minutes. And his shooting percentage will kill you.

Wilson Chandler: @127. One of the most underrated players in the league before his injury. But his injury was a bad one. And the Nuggets are loaded on the wings. And there are trade rumors. Pass.

Tiago Splitter: @126. I bring him up because I’ve seen him discussed as a sleeper. Not sure how anyone who watched last year’s playoffs could believe that. Splitter can’t defend against the Thunder or the Heat nor any other team built like them (Nuggets, Celtics). And Pop loves him some Boris Diaw.

Kemba Walker: @105, 30 min/gm. Shot 37% last season in a running system that should have been good for him. Playing for a no-nonsense college coach this season. Ramon Sessions behind him. Pass.

[Stephen Curry (bust): The injury risk on Curry is now extreme (see sleeper update, above). Stay away.]

As always, I’ll answer questions about any players I’ve left off my list in the comments below. [I've also begun updating this post as more names occur to me, so check back if that interests you. Updates will be posted at the end of each list.] Good luck in your draft!

See also: Feltbot’s 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts, Part One.

80 Responses to More 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts

  1. Steve | October 15, 2012 at 9:43 am | Reply
    From Rusty Simmons:

    Center Andrew Bogut, who is rehabbing from ankle surgery, was cleared for one-on-one contact drills, and Jackson hopes the big man’s recovery allows him to play one or two exhibition games. “His presence alone makes a difference,” Jackson said. “He’s doing all of the things he’s supposed to do with rehab and treatment. He looks better and better every day. We’re very happy with where he is right now, and we hope he’ll be in a position to get some work prior to this thing starting.”

    http://www.sfgate.com/warriors/article/Warriors-build-long-trip-into-preseason-3948087.php#ixzz29O2UhKSG

    • Can you imagine the type of year the W’s could have if both Steph and Bogut are healthy for most of the year? I’m not even gonna think about it.

      16 days…

  2. Here’s a link for tonight’s Warriors/Denver game (reminder: After clicking this link don’t click on anything else. The video stream should start in about 30-40 seconds)

    http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/146929/1/watch-denver-nuggets-vs-golden-state-warriors.html

  3. Pick and Roll Curry Ezeli!!!

  4. DENVER — Stephen Curry looked like his old self on Monday night.

    Although the Warriors were handed their first loss of the preseason, 104-98 against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center, Curry had his first big night in a while.

    The fourth-year point guard, who is returning from right ankle surgery, had a game-high 25 points in 25 minutes. He knocked down 10 of 15 shots from the floor, including 4 of 5 from beyond the arc in logging his most extensive playing time since Feb. 20.

    “The ankle felt good,” he said. “I was able to move pretty fluidly out there and not really think about my ankle. It’s a step in the right direction.”

    http://www.mercurynews.com/warriors/ci_21781006/stephen-curry-scores-25-points-golden-state-warriors?source=rss

  5. Season Preview from nba.com: YOUR Golden State Warriors

    http://www.nba.com/preview/2012/GSW/index.html

  6. Preseason games link alert:

    We’re almost there, there being having the ability to watch the Warriors on our very own (big screen? high-def?) television set(s) as opposed to watching the video stream from an offshore site on our computer.

    The Warriors next game is Wednesday night in Sactown vs the Kings, and once again no local TV coverage scheduled. But after that? YES! Games at Portland and LAC will be shown on NBA TV, and the Dubs final preseason game at The Oracle vs Phoenix will be TV’d by our local CSN BayArea. All 82 regular season games will be televised so only one more game to watch online (while constantly being reminded (lured) that my “files don’t support this video feed so click this plug-in so we can take over your computer”).

    That said, anyone interested in watching/scouting Utah and the Lakers, they play tonight at 7 and I’ll post that link here for those so inclined, right around game time. I’ll do likewise for Wednesday’s Warriors/Sac game, which also starts at 7.

  7. The Warriors biggest deficiency last year was their inability to get to the foul line. It could be worse this year given that last night the Warriors were outscored 25-13 from the stripe. Even with the Warriors shooting 48% from the field to Denver’s 38%, the Warriors could not overcome the foul shooting deficit, especially since the Warriors didn’t take as many three’s as Denver, and got killed on the offensive boards.

    Just don’t understand why Jenkins played such few minutes last night. Let him develop his game.

    Given how much Jack is being paid, Jackson coach is hell bent on playing Jack over him, even though Jack, to date, not on his game.

    And Rush taking only four shots in 18 minutes of play. Just ridiculous.

    • The Ws were near the league’s worst in rebounding last year. It slammed their whole game, on both ends of the floor. It would have been helpful to rack up more FTs, but that can’t happen without possessions. If rebounding improves, we’ll see more FTs too.

  8. IMO, the best writer to follow in regards the NBA is Zach Lowe…..

    “A Whole New Ballgame”

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8509901/what-next-trend-sweep-nba

  9. A few impressions from last night’s game:

    - Couldn’t figure out the Ws offensive scheme, if any. Maybe it’s too subtle for me to detect, but it looked like the most complicated plays the Ws ran all night involved no more than 2 players – and those seemed to develop spontaneously, not planned. OK, it’s just a preseason game and the team’s anchor isn’t on the floor yet, but still, where’s the plan? Jack and Jenkins looked lost. I think they both need more structure to be effective. The most disturbing sign was the late-developing offense every time up the floor.

    - Curry lit it up on offense, but mostly through late-clock bail-out shots. A good guy to take ‘em, but taking the team’s first shot at :20 doesn’t say much for the offense, even if it’s Curry shooting.

    - Defense was ghastly. THIS is a no-excuses, defensive-minded team?!?!? WTF? Is Bogut going to cover everyone’s assignment?

    - Jenkins got just a few minutes last night, with the scrubs, but he ran the O as well as Jack, and unlike Jack he’s a scoring threat. If Coach Flow ignores salary and just goes by performance, Jenkins gets more PT than Jack this season. But who knows what Jackson will do? Not sure even he does.

    - Thompson isn’t just a tad slow on D. He’s terrible. Bad footwork, stupid positioning, unable to predict, slow to react, dumb fouls. Here’s the opposition’s offensive game plan this season: get the ball to Thompson’s guy. Calling all Montas!

    - Tyler will not be a contributor this season. Pitiful D, below average O, and not even a rebounder. Plays like a weakling. It’s Santa Cruz for him.

    - I like Landry. Didn’t see much of him last night, but he’s a creative low-post scorer. He’s not outstanding at anything else but perfectly OK, and maybe the toughest guy on the team. If Bogut can’t play much, I could see Landry backing up both big positions.

    - Anthony Randolph is a great player until he loses focus. Then he starts to fire up wacky shots and wander around aimlessly on D. Karl pulled him immediately after his corner-3 attempt. Hope Randolph gets the message, someday soon. When he’s not being an idiot, he’s awesome. Hey, Anthony! 4 years, 4 teams! Wake up!

    • Missed the game — why didn’t Ezeli take more shots?

      • Getting Ezeli the ball near the rim didn’t seem to be a team priority, and he had only one offensive rebound. I think when playing with Lee and the team’s gunners, Ezeli’s offense is mostly going to be put-back points. No rebounds = no scoring for Ezeli. It will be interesting to see if it plays out that way with Bogut too.

  10. White Hat: If our opponents are taking four more foul shots per game than us, that effects somewhat our garnering less defensive rebounds. We were a terrible rebounding team because of the trade in which we lost our best defender which resulted in teams scoring at will inside and thus we garnered less rebounds. This was compounded by the fact received a center who could not play the remainder of the year. So, the rebounding stats are deceiving.

    Our main problem last year was not having many defensive players who could keep opponents from scoring inside. Biedrins simply could not defend.

    This year, if Bogut is healthy the Warriors will have a major defensive presence with a center tandem of Bogut-Ezeli. Both should be able to protect our PF’s- D. Lee and Landry.

    We don’t have players who have the ability to get to the foul line. Running would help, but Jackson is an eastern style coach who likes the half court game.

    You make a good point of Jackson not devising schemes to get the ball inside to Ezeli for easy scores.

  11. This post was updated to include Andray Blatche as a sleeper. Details above.

  12. Frank, yeah, a layup against Biedrins or Lee last year was a pretty high percentage shot. Not good for the team’s rebounding stats.

    But the traditional Ws free throw disparity is weird. Players and coaches come and go, but the FTA disparity has been a fairly regular feature of the Warriors for decades. Last year we averaged 18.7 FTAs per game vs. 26.1 for opponents. The year before that it was 20.7 vs. 27.7. In Nelson’s last year it was 25.4 vs. 29.1.

    The last time the team averaged more FTAs than its opponents was in 08-09, when we had just 2% more than the other guys. And the season before that we had 24.9 FTA vs. 29 for opponents.

    It’s a tradition, I guess. Jackson didn’t change it last year and it looks like business as usual so far in this preseason too. Against the Nuggets we got 22 FTAs vs their 34. Against Maccabi Haifa we got 24 vs. their 34!!!

    We usually average close to the league overall average FTAs (the league average was 22.5 last year)

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html)

    but our opponents clean up against us. This is not a good defensive team, plain and simple. Maybe that’ll all change with Bogut. Maybe we’ll quit fouling so much, and quit giving away games at the FT line this year. It wouldn’t be my bet, though. Not this year.

  13. Blow for Minny:

    MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Kevin Love returned from the London Olympics determined to do what every one of his U.S. teammates have already done — lead his team to the playoffs. The Minnesota Timberwolves will likely have to begin the first month of that pursuit without him.

    The two-time All-Star broke his right hand in a morning workout Wednesday and will miss six to eight weeks.

    Love broke the third and fourth metacarpals on his shooting hand in a workout before practice. It’s a crushing blow to the Timberwolves, who already will be without star point guard Ricky Rubio for what is expected to be at least the first six weeks of the regular season while he recovers from a torn ACL in his left knee.

    http://newsok.com/timberwolves-star-love-out-6-8-weeks-broken-hand/article/feed/449120#ixzz29byFMNY4

  14. I guess we get Maloofed-out (blacked out) on tonight’s game. With no Kings telecast the in-house telecast (what you see on the scoreboard and on TV moniters when you’re in line at the refreshment stands), which is what we watched the other night from Denver, was our only hope. And in fact the feed was up the other night from Sac as I watched the last qtr of their game vs Portland. But tonight? Nothing, and the site that had this game linked finally removed the link after promising a feed for about 30 minutes.

    If I find anything in the next hour or so I’ll post it otherwise check your local TV listings for time and channel for all remaining games this season. Next game is scheduled for NBA TV.

  15. Bogut’s opening game status getting dicier? (Dr. Feltenstein, paging Dr. Feltenstein!)

    http://www.ibabuzz.com/warriors/2012/10/17/it-seems-boguts-status-for-the-opener-getting-dicier-by-the-day/

        • From MT:

          SACRAMENTO – Warriors center Andew Bogut will have his troublesome left ankle examined Monday in Los Angeles.

          The Warriors play at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday, giving Bogut an opportunity to visit Richard Ferkel, the doctor who performed arthroscopic surgery on the ankle in April.

          Bogut, who fractured the ankle in January while with Milwaukee, has yet to practice or play a preseason game. Before Wednesday’s exhibition game at Sacramento, Warriors coach Mark Jackson said Bogut is “still a ways away.”

          Bogut is still pushing to be ready for the Oct. 31 season opener. The plan was to get him in a couple exhibition games to prepare him, but the Warriors have just three exhibitions left — Friday at Portland, next Monday at the Clippers and next Tuesday at home against Phoenix.

          With Bogut scheduled for an exam Monday, only Tuesday seems possible — and not likely. According to one source, Bogut won’t play even if he checks out at 90 percent.

          However, he could still make the season opener. The Warriors have eight days between their final exhibition and the season opener.

          Friday’s game: Warriors at Portland, 7 p.m. NBATV

  16. Warriors Being Extra Cautious with Andrew Bogut

    By Marcus Thompson
    Thursday, October 18th, 2012 at 11:16 am in Uncategorized.

    Warriors fans have been worried about center Andew Bogut’s recovery for some time now. With reason, too. Unlike with point guard Stephen Curry, who seemed to hit every projected timeline, Bogut’s injury seems to be a bit on the hush. That has to be unnerving for a fan base who has been sold on Bogut being worth giving up a star and enduring last year’s losing.

    Sure, he had surgery in April in part to ensure he’d be ready for camp. Yes, his status changed from to going slow in camp and making sure he’s ready for the regular season. And now, all the plans and expectations seem to be hopes and ideals. The reality is this: Bogut won’t play until he’s healthy. No one knows exactly when that is because it’s largely based on how Bogut feels. And until he says “I feel spectacular, no issues,” they’re probably going to keep the reins on him. The Warriors are going to be cautious about because he is 7-foot (which means his foot injuries are more delicate) and it’s a long season (which means rushing him back prematurely isn’t quite necessary).

    Monday’s examination with Richard Ferkel, the doctor who performed Bogut’s arthroscopic surgery in April, was scheduled and not the result of some set back. He could get the green light (and sometimes, when he’s working on the side, he looks like he’s not limited at all) on Monday or he could be told he’s making progress but he needs more time. But it couldn’t have been schedule too long ago as this visit seems to exclude Bogut from playing a preseason game. The Warriors had hopes he would play at least one or two so he wouldn’t have to jump into the regular season cold turkey after having not played since January.

    Bogut hasn’t been cleared to practice, which means he will have to do his usual work on the side for today’s practice as well as Saturday and Sunday in Los Angeles. Mark Jackson’s rule is you can’t play unless you can practice. After Sunday, the Warriors play a Monday-Tuesday back-to-back and then the preseason’s over. Bogut could be an exception to the rule, get a few minutes Monday if the exam goes well, and a few more minutes Tuesday against Phoenix in the preseason. But that means he’ll have to be 100 percent. Warriors officials are saying they don’t see any sense in running him out there for a preseason game and risking re-injury. The regular season may be a different story, but the preseason just isn’t worth it to them.

    If Bogut is cleared on Monday, and he’s held out of the preseason games, he will have seven days to get to as close to game shape as possible. But if somehow he isn’t ready, don’t be surprised if the Warriors hold him out of the opener, too. GM Bob Myers, coach Mark Jackson, their M.O. is to be cautious and to look at the big picture. Curry can attest to that.

    It won’t sound good to say to a fan base clamoring to see Bogut play, but he won’t get out there until he’s ready. No pain. No swelling. No limited mobility. They want to make sure this thing is behind him. That might be Oct. 31. Or it might not be.

  17. White Hat:

    Last night, we won with a small line-up mainly due to great defense, holding the Kings to less than 40% FG shooting, and making 9 three pointers, to the kings 3. The Warriors have to do that to win given that they don’t have players who can get to the line consistently.

    We were outscored at the foul line, 35-17. Except for Corey Maggette, the Warriors have never had players who could get to the foul line on a consistent basis.

    The only way to limit the FT differential is for the Warriors not to foul as much as we presently do. That’s not going to happen with a young team.

    Thompson took 8 FTA’s, but made only 3. He had 4 turnovers.

    Once again, Rush our best shooter took few shots. Jackson, do something about shot distribution.

    • Hmm…

      Didn’t see the game, but the box score shows the Ws starters all seriously negative on the +/-. Klay Thompson in particular stands out with -20. Total FTAs for the teams were 27 Ws vs. 42 Kings. Free throw %: 63% Ws vs. 83.3% Kings. Based on those fig.’s alone it looks like the Ws lost. The Kings outscored the Ws at the FT line by 18 points!

      Then there’s the 3-pt shooting: 9-23 Ws ( 39.1%) vs. 3-21 Kings (14.3%). In overall shooting percentages, the Ws did well and the Kings stank up the place.

      I guess you could say that the Ws played great defense, but it’s debatable. If keeping an opponent to a low shooting % means accepting an 18-point deficit at the FT line, the Ws are going to have a very rocky season.

      http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400400523

      ps what happened to Ezeli? He didn’t show up on ESPN’s box score at all, even as a DNP.

  18. With all the PED talk around here the last couple months I thought this might be interesting to some here; Victor Conte was the guest on Joe Rogan’s podcast the other day. Pretty interesting stuff.

  19. MT on Curry’s ankle (which was kicked/stepped on by Wesley Matthews. Just looking at this GIF it makes you wonder about curses and spells. Any witch doctors out there not liking SCurry? Geez!)

    http://www.ibabuzz.com/warriors/2012/10/19/warriors-pg-stephen-curry-hurts-right-ankle-again/

  20. ESPN’s NBA Countdown or TNT’s Inside the NBA? Sir Charles or The Sports Guy?

  21. Jonas Valanciunas, Andrea Bargnani and Jarret Jack have been added to my sleeper list above.

    Stephen Curry, malheureusement, is now added to my bust list. Way too risky to draft @6.

  22. I happen to catch some Raptors games (myself as well as JV being Lithuanian), from what I’ve seen he should be putting 8-10 rebounds and close to same with points.
    He’s active as hell, setting picks and he rolls beautifully to the basket for a guy his age. Has long arms, the only problem now being Raptors guards not passing to him often enough. But I believe that will come. So, I don’t know what it means for fantasy league, but that’s my take on his game as of yet.

    As for our own woes, well, not much can be said (that hasn’t been said re: Stefanijus Curijozikus), except that Jack really impressed yesterday.

  23. Barnes and Thompson should both not be in the Warriors starting line-up opening night. The Warriors getting outscored 28-20 in the first quarter should have been awake call for Jackson.

    Thompson’s defense is just atrocious. It’s hard to consider him an upgrade over Ellis. He would be more effective coming off the bench and playing with the second unit. Right now, he’s just a catch and shoot player.

    Both Rush and Jefferson should start, and an argument can be made for starting Landry over Jefferson.

  24. From The NBA Geek…….

    You’re Gonna Be Surprised: The Suns

    http://www.thenbageek.com/articles/you-re-gonna-be-surprised-the-suns

  25. “‘No setbacks’ for Warriors’ Andrew Bogut (ankle), but still no timetable”

    http://nba.si.com/2012/10/20/andrew-bogut-ankle-golden-state-warriors/?xid=si_nba

  26. Curry’s ankle and the GIF @32:

    So what are we looking at in this clip, a normal reaction of a healthy ankle to this kind of accident or a weakened ankle rolling too much with the collision?

    Biedrins most likely has a career ending injury, and it has been speculated here that Bogus might have one as well, but what is the prognosis for Curry? How many other players have gone down with weakened ankles? The doctors aren’t finding structural damage.

    The best hope may be that he simply hasn’t had enough time for the ankle to heal—only a half a year for repeated injuries—and that keeping him quiet longer might be best for him and the team.

    The only thing I notice from the clip is that once again he may have put his foot in harm’s way, as he is prone to do. Most of his injuries have come from stepping hard on other players’ feet in his active and sometimes wild movement around the court. I’m curious how many other players have done the same as many times, especially in a short time. This leaves us wondering if he can learn to correct that behavior.

    Is there a doctor in the house?

    A fortune teller?

  27. My wife is a chiropractor, athlete and coach. Also a fan of Stephen Curry.

    She says Curry is naturally hypermobile, a condition that typically makes someone more prone to sprains than normal. It’s just the way he his.

    Re putting himself in harm’s way, Curry plays the #1 most injury-causing sport in the US. Someone else tripping over his heel isn’t his fault, or something he could really prevent. The only way he could be guaranteed to avoid that kind of thing would be to quit playing ball.

    I realize you’re just looking for solutions here, rgg, but there aren’t any simple answers. Surgical repair, limiting the range of motion in Curry’s heel (foot orthotics, custom shoes, tape AND an ankle brace), and having Curry do stability/balance/strengthening/awareness exercises pretty much sum up all the options.

  28. MT writes about Carl Landry

    “Lee said he is looking forward to getting his minutes down, something he can do comfortably now that Landry is a Warrior.”

    (Jackson is way overdoing it with Lee and his minutes in the preseason. I gave The Reverend a mulligan for last season but now he’s on the clock and IMO he’s not exactly off to a flying start with his playing starters like Lee heavy minutes while going all out to win these meaningless games, not to mention his idea for the long, extended preseason road trip so that the team can “bond” for the regular season.)

    http://www.insidebayarea.com/warriors/ci_21824918/golden-state-warriors-carl-landry-will-get-his?source=rss

    • “If … Bogut is not in uniform … [and] when teams have power forwards playing the center position, we can get away with those two [Lee and Landry] on the floor.”

      Nice to see Jackson sort of agrees with me about playing Landry at C, but “getting away with” a smallish front line isn’t the same as “taking advantage” with it. Don’t want to nitpick his choice of words here, but he’s talking about smallball. His best smallball lineup would play a spread 4 – Barnes or Jefferson- with one of his bigs.

      Maybe Jackson should read Feltbot, or watch some old Nellieball game films.

  29. The truth about Joe Lacob’s head coach: Charlie Rosen’s coaching rankings.

    http://hoopshype.com/columns/rosen/the-coaching-rankings

    • Ouch. (And I may be wrong about Dunlap.)

    • The lowest rating of a non-rookie coach. Brutal.

      No hedging and no “wait and see” in that review. Also no explanation. Twitter-length reviews don’t cut it.

      I wonder if we’ll hear a response from Lacob or the Ws PR machine.

    • The coach Lacob passed on:

      6. Rick Adelman (Minnesota): Adjusts his system to fit the talents of his roster and gets his players to execute. A winner.

    • I wonder how many of the top ten coaches Lacob would have gone after, given the chance.

      Here’s the coach he was high on (Lacob tried to get Brown, right?):

      “22. Mike Brown (LA Lakers): Makes poor in-game adjustments. Caters to his star players. Known around the NBA as the most overrated coach in the league.”

      If Jackson doesn’t pan out, I put this squarely on Lacob. Jackson fit the conception of what he wanted (or thought he wanted, sketchy as his thoughts are). Then he didn’t give him much to work with.

      And I’m not that optimistic about this year, if health issues plague Bogut and Curry. There’s only one proven consistent player on the team, Lee. Thompson, instead of being an intriguing prospect in his sophomore year, will be put in the starting lineup. If Barnes starts, his prospects are ambiguous at best. The rest look like promising or adequate backups, plus some expensive bench warmers. The pressure and load will be on Lee. Again.

  30. While Ezeli has far superior individual stats over Udoh this preseason, the last two games that Udoh has played, the Bucks outscored their opponents with Udoh on the court.

    The last three games with Ezeli on the court, the Warruior’s opponents have outscored the Warriors. I think the later is more a reflection of the surrounding cast that is starting with Ezeli. Over the course of a season it’s more fruitful to look at the positive-negative rating of a player compared to other players on the team, than ind. stats.

    A healthy center combination of Bogut and Ezeli, should do as well as as last year’s Udoh-Biedrins combination.

    But, I doubt that Bogut-lee combination this year will reach the positive eight rating when both Udoh and Lee were on the court last year. But, such should may depend on the performance of this years starting line-up.

    • Imagine if we had both Ezeli and Udoh this year.

      • Continuing my thought, how much would we have given up if we had Udoh and Ezeli instead of Bogut over the 48 minutes of a game?

        But then add to that whatever the team might have picked up with Bogut’s salary.

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