Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets Playoff Preview

There are some difficulties in forecasting this Nuggets – Warriors series. For one, Andrew Bogut didn’t play against the Nuggets this season. And, in another indication of just how lucky the Warriors were in their schedule this year, they played the Nuggets three times in the first month, and then on Jan. 13th, and not once after that date. The Warriors managed to avoid the period when the Nuggets had their full roster and were clicking on all cylinders — and beating the Thunder on their home floor — towards the end of the season. So even if the Nuggets were at full strength, which they are not, it would be hard to apply the lessons of the regular season games to this playoff series. The Nuggets got better as the season progressed, while the Warriors, with the addition of Andrew Bogut, got objectively worse.

Then, of course, there are the injuries to Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. The loss of Gallinari is particularly devastating to the Nuggets’ playoff chances. He had developed into a tremendously efficient two-way player this season, and was the Nuggets’ closest thing to a crunch-time closer. His three-point shooting was critical to a team that has difficulty spreading the floor.

Ty Lawson’s torn fascia will be less of a problem for the Nuggets. He really helps them push the tempo, and is a much needed three point shooter, but he’s not a great playmaker, and he hurts them on defense. The Nuggets have played quite well in his absence, with Andre Miller and even Andre Iguodala at the point. For what it’s worth, Lawson’s boxscores look fairly decent since his return, although he’s not close to 100%. He should be productive in limited minutes, unless his fascia explodes.

Kenneth Faried missed the last two games of the season with a badly sprained ankle. He is “hopeful” that he will be able to play in game 1 of the series. But even if he does play, he will obviously be limited. For a player who relies so much on his speed, athleticism and jumping ability, this injury could prove devastating.

So the Nuggets come into this series down all or part of three starters. A darn shame if you’re a Nuggets fan, because in my book, they were primed for a title run. I think they could have beaten the injury-devastated Spurs. And I think they were good enough to beat the Thunder, as this resounding 114-104 victory, in March, on OKC’s home floor, in a key game for playoff seeding, indicated.

And they would have been an intriguing match-up against the Heat. They lost their two games against the Heat this season by a total of eight points, with both games falling in November, before Wilson Chandler — the key defender to deploy on Lebron James — was even available. The Nuggets could have been the toughest matchup imaginable for the Heat.

Do they still have enough to beat the Warriors? Vegas certainly thinks so. Here’s the line:

Nuggets: -500

Warriors: +420

The Nuggets are 5-1 favorites, though you only get slightly better than 4-1 if you want to bet the Warriors.

This is certainly not encouraging for the Warriors’ chances. But I think this line is pretty fair, particularly if Andrew Bogut plays. Allow me to explain:

The Andrew Bogut Target: The Nuggets are an all-out running team, pushing the tempo relentlessly. Both Kosta Koufos and Javale McGee run the floor. Faried excels at running the floor. Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer. You get the picture.

George Karl is going to pin a big bullseye on Andrew Bogut’s back, just as Don Nelson did to Eric Dampier back when We Believed. He’s going to see if Bogut can run with the Nuggets.

The Nuggets are also a driving and slashing team. With poor outside shooting, they need to attack the rim, and they do it relentlessly, with Faried, Iggy and Chandler. And also Koufos and McGee.

Does Bogut have the mobility and stamina to defend the rim for thirty minutes against all those players? Twenty minutes? Ten?

I fear that George Karl is going punish the Warriors badly for their use of a big, immobile, non-scoring center. The Nuggets are a terrible matchup for Bogut.

The Stephen Curry target: I’m sure we all greatly enjoyed Curry’s record-breaking regular season. And with the exception of one game where he got in foul trouble, he performed pretty well in the regular season against the Nuggets.

Don’t count on him performing well in this series.

George Karl knows that Curry is the key to the Warriors chances. If he can prevent Curry from having big games, the Warriors have little chance of success. So I’m guessing Karl pins a target on Curry’s back as well.

It will be interesting to see how Karl matches up against Curry. Because I think he has the weapons at his disposal to simply take Curry out of the game.

Particularly if Andrew Bogut plays. Both of Karl’s centers are exceedingly mobile, and deft at coming out of the lane to defend the pick and roll. If Bogut is used to set picks, Karl will be able to simply blitz Curry with absolute impunity. Because Bogut is no threat at all at the top of the key. No threat to roll, no threat to pop.

The Warriors offense will be better if David Lee is used to set the pick. But even then, the lane will not be open for Lee to roll to the hoop. Andrew Bogut’s man will be waiting for him under the basket, to block his shot. If I were George Karl, I would blitz Curry anyway with whoever is playing the four, Faried or Chandler, get the ball out of Curry’s hands, and live with Lee’s jumpers.

The other weapon that Karl has to take Curry out of the game is Andre Iguodala, one of the premier defenders in the game. We have seen numerous times already this season how Curry has struggled getting his shot off over long athletic defenders when Bogut is on the court. Well, Iggy is the longest and most athletic defensive guard there is.

I’m pretty sure that Karl will resort to the Iggy option sooner rather than later in this series. The only question will be where to hide his point guards.

Wait a minute, that’s not a question. We already know where he will hide his point guards. On Harrison Barnes. Andre Miller will have no problem picking up Barnes. But what about Ty Lawson?

I don’t know. Popovich guarded Barnes with Tony Parker, to good effect. And if I were Karl, I would want to entice the Warriors into posting up Barnes as often as possible.

The Klay Thompson target: One reason for Karl to match up conventionally in this series would be to put Iggy on Klay, who has become more and more of a threat as the season has progressed.

It seems like overkill, though, to have Wilson Chandler – another fabulous, long defender — on Harrison Barnes. If I were Mark Jackson, what I would fear most from the Nuggets is Iggy guarding Curry, and Chandler on Klay Thompson.

Unless it were the next lineup.

The David Lee target: Lee has been superb — the antithesis of a target — against the Nuggets this season. He and Festus Ezeli combined to do a fabulous job shutting down Koufos and Faried in the lane. The secret to playing Faried is to keep an eye and a body on him around the hoop at all times. Never let him shake loose. This is something that Lee absolutely excels at.

But what happens when George Karl slides Wilson Chandler to the four? I think we can definitely expect this to happen. It happened even when Gallinari was healthy. Towards the end of the season, I saw Karl close games with Chandler at the four, and Gallinari at the five!

Chandler at the four turns Lee into a target. Spreads him out to the three point line, taking his rebounding prowess out of the equation. Puts him at risk of being burned on drives.

And makes it more difficult for him to put the ball on the floor in pick and roll.

The Harrison Barnes target: It’s quite possible that Barnes shows well in this series, as he will be the least guarded Warrior on the floor.

Unless Karl matches up conventionally. If that happens, Wilson Chandler will eat Barnes alive. On offense, on defense, and on the boards.

Mark Jackson’s Answer: Does Jackson have an insurmountable problem in front of him? Perhaps.

But it should be noted that the Warriors have a team within their team that can run with the Nuggets. A team that starts Festus Ezeli at center in the first and third quarters. Plays Carl Landry at center in the second quarter. And finishes the game with David Lee at center.

The team that won so many games this year, against so many tough opponents, when Andrew Bogut was out.

Why are the Warriors better with this lineup on the floor?

Because they can match the Nuggets speed, and get back more easily on defense.

Because by upping the tempo, they can increase their number of offensive possessions, which is exactly what you want to do when you have the edge in three point shooting.

Because by upping the tempo, they can shake Curry and Thompson loose from the smothering defense of Iguodala, Chandler and Brewer, and get them open looks at transition threes.

Because by upping the tempo, they can get to the line more, as the Warriors did under Don Nelson.

Because David Lee, Festus Ezeli and Carl Landry have been effective defenders of the Nugget’s front line.

Because David Lee in the pick and roll has absolutely tortured the Nuggets this year. And Lee in the middle with a spread floor gets Curry and Thompson open at the three point line.

Because of games like this one: Warriors 106 Nuggets 105.

When you are watching Andrew Bogut play in this series, and watching the Warriors get out to miserable 15 point starts in the first 10 minutes of the game, keep in mind that there is another Warriors team on this roster.

Does Mark Jackson have the cojones to play it?

Is he willing to coach this series to win?

 

Also Check Out: Feltbot’s Western Conference Playoffs First Round Preview and Grading Feltbot’s Western Conference Regular Season Forecast.

96 Responses to Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets Playoff Preview

  1. If Bogut can walk onto the court, he’s going to start.

  2. I think you nailed it, FB. And we know the starting lineup for sure – Bogut, Lee, Barnes, Thompson, Curry. Wondering if we will get off to a slow start???

  3. Hughs your daddy

    For sure you have not watched curry much. Since all star break he is top 5-7 player in the league – period. Don’t belove me , check the stats. Teams have been trying to slow him down with all kinds of double teams, traps, ext – to no avail. All of a sudden iggy and chandler are the answer? I don’t think so – if you watch game one vs. Denver – warriors should have never lost that game – watch the end and if you disagree your crazy – the one point warrior win was about as bad an officiated game as they come and thankfully the good guys one. I agree in part to assessment on bogut – mobility is a problem – David lee – he has owned faired – killed nuggets – don’t belove me – look a numbers – this will not be a 4-5 game series, it’s going 7 and either team can win – curry so much better then Lawson, lee so much better then faried – even combined other three starters and nuggets depth much better then warriors plus mad love to George Karl – dude can coach and that’s a huge advantage

  4. According to Bill Simmons, Lacob turned down Paul Pierce in return for Harrison Barnes, plus either Biedrins or Jefferson.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9186204/nba-trade-value-column-part-1

    (scroll down to #47 Klay Thompson)

    Another deal I would have done in a heartbeat.

    • one, singular n.b.a. pundit compared barnes to pierce (aldridge ? who combines as a shill for both the league on nba.com and espn of course) and the myth keeps getting repeated by barnes’ fans. simmons can’t be considered 100% reliable by any means, but if this were true, lacob apparently believes the myth, no surprise, and worried about pierce’s expiration date. of course bogut is likely much closer to his, and won’t ever be close to h.o.f. consideration either.

      one season’s evidence for a 20 yr. old with questionable coaching is inconclusive, but we see young players at barnes’ position surpassing him thus far who were drafted far lower and didn’t require a concerted losing campaign combined with trading for a disabled player for their acquisition. their excuse for the ugliness taken to an extreme for a lottery pick was the marcus williams trade debacle of course, another convenient means to scape goat the cohan regime, and their way of demonstrating that two wrongs can make a right. by another name, moral midgetry.

    • Obviously Boston is trying to rebuild and is trying to shed a veteran contract, but I can’t figure out their angle here, unless they believe Barnes has potential? Biedrins only has expiring contract value next year. This is bizarre.

      How many years left on Pierce’s contract (about $17m)?

      • there’s no excuse available in the length of pierce’s contract, for it expires in June 2014, same as jefferson’s or biedrins’ or landry’s after they exercise their options, or bogut’s. well, fantasizing about a trio of wings comprised of thompson, pierce, rush won’t get us anywhere.

  5. The Ws – pack the key – zone defense should be VERY effective versus this Nuggets non-shooting offense. Why? Because this Nuggets team can’t shoot well from the perimeter sans Gallinari. Sure Lawson can shoot, but is he healthy? The only chance for the Nuggets to win this game IS to run.

    No Gallinari – a known Ws assassin – and a lesser Ty Lawson, who’s going to shoot from the perimeter and spread the floor? Chandler? Iggy? Brewer? McGee? Koufos? Faried? A. Miller?

    Why no mention of Brandon Rush’s season ending injury? Yet every imaginable Nuggets injury/excuse for potentially losing this series was listed. And the Ws handed one season win over to the Nuggets.

    The huge Nuggets altitude home court advantage will be nullified as the Ws players become acclimated in a 3 days hotel stay in Denver prior to the games versus 1 day in a hotel during the season… Denver’s road record is more indicative of their teams quality of play and is eerily similar to that of the Ws.

    Denver losing to the Heat twice by 8 points? Don’t ever think that by shutting down Curry, the team will lose! Our Ws got only 9 points from Stephen Curry and STILL BEAT the Heat in Miami!!! Lee, Klay, Jack, and Landry can all score with great efficiency… And LeBron & company can defend… The opposite has been true – Curry’s biggest offensive scoring games were Ws losses!

    A 47-win team, the Ws have a huge chip on their shoulder. The Denver Nuggets MUST run, because they sure can’t shoot! The Ws can do both – run and shoot.

    Fact is – this line is wrong. More like 50-50 in my mind. Last time I Checked, most of the so-called experts – pegged this Ws team for 30-35 wins… Not so smart.

    • inaccurate assessment of Den’s perimeter shooting — the rotation is different than what the woeyrs saw in their four contests. chandler and fournier (>.40) both surpassed gallinari’s accuracy beyond the line, the french rookie’s overall f.g. pct. is .53. miller has also done his share in past games, and there’s the karl factor of finding ways to overcome zones and quasi-zones, which won’t be needed if the woeyrs turnovers are converted into transition scores. getting to up a half court defense at all could become a luxury for the lacobites.

      • Citing Evan Fournier as a legitimate playoff perimeter shooter is actually PROVING my point… A nice prospect for sure, though.

        Andre Miller? Miller can post up anyone, throw an alley-oop with the best, and run the fast break the right way, but he AIN’T much of a shooter…

        Just Chandler and Lawson, if you’re rounding up.

        Denver MUST run…

        I smell a loss on Denver’s home court, I’ll say Game 2.

        • playoffs, career true shooting pct. a.miller, .511 ; j.jack , .426

          we’ll see if fournier and miller surpass barnes and jack.

          • We’ll agree to disagree here and just have to wait and see…

            Denver’s not a decent perimeter shooting team right now without Gallinari and hobbled Lawson.

            I think the Ws pack the paint zone defense will fare very well against this poor shooting Denver team.

            Andre Miller’s CAREER stats? Fine, but he’s 37 now. He ain’t the same player. In the past, I’d agree Miller > Jack. As of today? I’ll say they’re close equals as NBA players…

            Fournier is a BARELY played rookie – only a handful of > 20 minute games under his belt. It will be Karl’s genius if Fournier plays a significant role and should Denver succeed.

            Harsh on Barnes’ game? Fine – I see it too. But Fournier? He hasn’t even played?

        • fournier had years of professional seasoning in the French league (rather different circumstance than j.tyler who was in foreign lands and non anglophone cultures), and came up with respectable performances when karl made him a regular with lawson’s, then gallinari’s injuries. player assessment is perhaps another aspect of coaching where karl surpasses jackson ? after his promotion his minutes are pretty similar to barnes’. you think barnes won’t continue to start against Den ?

          • @Moto – Karl “surpasses” Jackson on his player assessment??? Why? Because Karl puts in his backup SG (Fournier) in less meaningful games at the end of the season when his starter is injured???

            Sophomore Coach Mark Jackson’s doing just fine coaching 47 wins out of a team many here predicted to win only 30-35 games. Two pre-season projected starters – Bogut and Rush – have been out most of the season. And Mark Jackson started 2 rookies (including Barnes) for most or all of the season…

            George Karl has the better player roster (although it’s much closer now with the injuries) and home court.

            Getcha popcorn ready!!!

  6. Re the Barnes/Pierce trade (with Biedrins as a throw-in)

    Of course it’s very possible that Simmons’ rumor was untrue (nod to moto). But if it were a real deal possibility, it could be useful to think of it as a salary-for-salary Biedrins/Pierce trade with Barnes as the throw-in.

    The net results for the Warriors:
    - A proven winner for 1 non-player + 1 below-average player with potential.
    - Choosing 2 years top-level play vs ? from Barnes.
    - Higher salary payout; the Ws go over the cap.
    - A decision to “win now” v “possibly-maybe win later, if we wait long enough and Barnes actually steps up.”

    Very few players could ever make the sort of contribution Pierce makes in every game. Even with 2 broken legs, Pierce would demand more attention from defenses than Barnes ever will, and that would make it more difficult to defend against Curry and Thompson.

    I’m like Don Nelson, a “win now” kinda guy.

    Assuming Simmons got it right, then Lacob chose to continue to hype Barnes over making the team better right now. It’s possible that eventually Barnes will prove to be worth last-year’s shameful tank job and all the phony hype the front office feels they must lay on a not-so-good player.

    But turn Barnes into Pierce, and a shot at the championship with Pierce would also be a fine payoff for tanking. No hype required, either.

    • @Hat – I do see both sides of this argument and I would have been on the fence…

      Long-term Barnes (nice rookie contract)

      Short-term Pierce (and dump a bad W’s contract)

      Unless one thinks Barnes can’t play, then it’s a no-brainer trade!

      Barnes can still be traded for something good next year if he’s not the W’s future player.

      • PB, I can see how the Ws FO would turn this down, too. Barnes cost the team a lot. To some degree, the reputation of the front office is riding on Barnes.

        While Barnes hasn’t proven himself yet, his athleticism makes it seem like he has all the basic tools to be an above-average player. And since no great baller is as good as he’s going to get while still a rookie, there’s still hope. That’s probably especially true for someone with as little college PT as Barnes.

        On the other hand, if next year Barnes does make it clear he’s not the W’s future, every other team could see the same thing at that time. His trade value would be minimal. The opportunity to dump two sub-par players for a short-term contribution from a HOFer like Pierce would not be available then. There’s a real possibility that Barnes/Biedrins-for-Pierce is the best deal the team could EVER make to salvage its investment in Barnes.

        Also arguing for the trade is this: truly great players are immediately recognizable. Think Curry or Ellis. Most will have “rookie issues,” but their potential is still crystal clear. That cannot be said of Barnes. No way, nohow is Barnes ever going to impact the game as much as a Curry, or an Ellis, or any other HOFer you could mention. Barnes has already proven beyond doubt that he will never reach the level of… Paul Pierce. Even an oft-injured, slow, ancient Paul Pierce.

        The decision point comes down to whether team management are devotees of Sturgeon’s Law:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_Law

        “90% of everything is crap.”

        For “crap” read “mediocrity.”

        Sturgeon’s Law is the mindset of every winner in the history of the world. It’s why Boston, Miami, Dallas and LA have all nuked their salary cap at times. It’s why Dr. Jerry Buss, longtime owner of the Lakers, almost always had a shot to win it all. It’s why owners like Chris Cohan never did.

        If Barnes worked for Jerry Buss, and Barnes’ at his best looked to be an 80th percentile player, Dr. Buss would trade him for the best.

        Wanna win? Play winners. There ain’t no fakin’ it.

        • I really don’t object to cutting ties with Barnes. I’m not tied to keeping him by any means…

          But I also see Barnes’ awesome potential. Even if he only gets just incrementally better in all facets of his game, he’s still a decent NBA player… Just because everyone here bags on Barnes game, doesn’t mean he’s washed up! Lol! If Barnes steps up his defense next year to passable like Klay did this year – he’s worth keeping.

          Watching James Harden play his first year or two – I’d never see how he’d be a max player.

          I would have loved to see Pierce in GS. But there’s no future, only present. Then cap space.

          What would be painful is the Ws give away a future good player. Like the SF Giants with OF Carlos Beltran and P Zack Wheeler.

  7. Stephen Curry and the rise of the three point shot:

    http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/stephen-curry-and-the-rise-of-the-3-pointer/

    [gratuitous Nellie reference]

  8. I like to assume Boston knows what it is doing, but I still can’t figure out Boston’s angle on the trade, unless they think Barnes has some potential which they can pick up cheaply. They may even think Biedrins might be of some use for a year. At any rate, they’ll have a lot of money to play with after next year. They are rebuilding.

    If they are taking Biedrins quasi seriously, it might explain why Lacob played him before the trade deadline. They are showcasing him in case anyone else has interest.

    On our end, Lacob is going to nix it automatically because it would cost $5m more (Pierce’s contract minus Barnes’ and Biedrins’). Otherwise we certainly don’t lose anything. I wonder how hard Pierce would play for us, though, after he’s left his band of brothers. Also he’s at the end of his career. Allen hasn’t torn it up in Miami.

    Most, if Simmons is right, it’s hard not wonder how many other opportunities for trades were possible that Lacob passed on.

    • Think what we will about him as a viable NBA player (I’m still on the fence as undecided), Harrison Barnes is still a valuable NBA commodity with upside and a good trade piece on a rookie contract.

      Paul Piece will be going fishing every day REAL soon… Lol!

      Even T. Robinson netted (and dumped Garcia’s contract) Patterson, Aldrich, and Douglas +$1 million cash for poor Kings ownership.

  9. Something amiss with story told by law enforcement in
    Boston marathon bombing. No way after exchanging many rounds of bullets with many police officers over a minute or two period of time, does shooter drive vehicle past police vehicles and get away. Not with over 100 policeman in area. For they would surely be shooting at driver and would shoot and flatten tires. Police would immediately be on his tail and he would not make it two blocks from scene of shooting nor escape. Nor would he still be at-large as claimed.

    • Frank, that’s about OT as it gets on a basketball blog, but yeah, the narrative doesn’t add up. It’s mostly likely that reporters simply didn’t get the story right. It happens, especially when everyone has their heads down.

      Occam’s Razor wipes out about 99.99% of the conspiracy theories out there.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

  10. Hat: the events in Boston are too important for any of us to ignore.

    It may be that the police are not sure where they want to place the shootout or whether the police want to hide that there were two different police shootouts with four different men, and the police only want to portray a shootout taking place with two suspects.

    As press reports portray suspect no. 1 is portrayed as being shot on the way through Watertown with the second suspect then fleeing on foot, and later there was a different portrayal of two suspects getting into a firefight with police on I believe Laurel Street, with one suspect being shot there in the street, and the other crashing through the police line and getting away.

    This may not be about the press making a mistake in reporting, but rather law enforcement not having decided how to portray the shooting or wanting to limit the number of men involved.

    It seems entirely possible that the suspect no 2 that was portrayed as running away on foot is not the same suspect who an eyewitness Andrew Kitzenberg said he saw crash a vehicle into the door of a police vehicle after a shootout by two men on his street. The police have not been quoted in the press as far I can find as saying that is what occurred. It sure makes more sense that the suspect got away by running on foot than crashing through police vehicles. If so, then who was the suspect that crashed a vehicle through many police cars after a shootout in the street?

    What’s also troubling is that the portrayal of the brothers biography keeps changing (they in U.S. one year, other stories they are here many years) and it looks like family members are being quoted in the press and telling very discordant stories, raising the possibility they are not speaking about the same two alleged brother suspects.

    Some stories has the brothers residing together in Cambridge. A sister says the older brother had a wife and child. Be interested if that’s the final story told and whether the brother are presented as residing together along with one’s brother’s wife and child.

    Also photos of white cap suspect no.2 (still portrayed as being at large) taken a the marathon, appears different ever so slightly, than school photos, raising the possibility that suspect no 2′s photo taken at the marathon may have been doctored, or he is not the same suspect who appears in school photos.

    • “white cap suspect”

      hmmmmmm. Anybody we know?

      • For what it’s worth, h, I kicked myself after posting that comment. Utterly inappropriate, and maybe Feltbot will pull it.

        The Boston affair was brought up on another post, the reason it’s being discussed here. It’s haunted me as well. The last days have been unreal.

      • Lol! White Cap? I know a White Hat!!!

    • over-reacting to incomplete information can lead to your confusion. according to a NY Times interview with a family member, the older suspect who died from his injuries inflicted at his apprehension had been denied citizenship because he’d been arrested for hitting his girlfriend, and went back to Russia for six months to renew his visa.

      the name tamerlan probably comes from the legendary tribal chief Timur the Lame, a descendant of Genghis. genghis has more living descendants verified by genetic analysis than any individual in history.

      • I’m reading the suspects are of Chechen descent, though no direct ties have been traced yet to radicals there or Islamic extremists.

        I’m too lazy to look this up, but wasn’t there an incident, a bombing in Russia at a school or something during the war which was blamed on Chechen rebels but was later discovered to be done by Russians so that it looked like Chechens did it and they could blame them, to justify escalation?

        • if we’re going to delve into the work of Anatoliy Golitsyn, the KGB/FSB defector and author of “The Perestroika Deception ” with the assistance of publisher/editor Christopher Story, let us also pay homage to Stalin, for keeping down the casualties both in his western allies and the extermination camps, and our own great prez, Andrew Jackson, who did his own big part in the ethnic cleansing of much of the original territories of our home republik.

          V.Putin from the KGB/FSB became the west’s ally in the war against terrorism. by the account of Golitsyn and others, the Moscow ‘terrorist’ bombings attributed to Chechnya separatists were the work of state intelligence operatives. the tactic of using state secret police to conduct assassinations or bombings and attribute them to the opposition goes back to the time of the Romanov czars, their successors under Lenin, the Cheka, to Stalin’s Narodnyy Kommisariat Vnutiennikh Del, who became the KGB after Stalin’s death.

          the Moscow bombings were used to justify the re-occupation and ethnic cleansing of Chechnya. Golitsyn chose Story to publish his book because Story had for some time worked to expose how the emergence of Gorbachev and Putin with the support of the west was the triumph of a long term Soviet strategy to re-consolidate within a down-sized empire.

  11. Father of Dzhokhar Tsamaevis quoted by The Guardian, April 19, 2013, as saying his son is a second year medical student in the U.S. He is not speaking about white cap, suspect no. 2, allegedly on the run, who purportedly is only 19 years of age.

    Take a look at recent internet social media post of Dzhokhar Tsamevic, with thick upper and lower lips and compare it to Dzhokhar Tsamevic teenage and h.s. photograph who has thin upper and lower lips. Do we have imposters or merely two different guys with the same name? Such a common name. Not.

  12. Mass. Col. Timothy Allen told press that suspect no. 2 abandoned vehicle and ran. Didn’t say on what street this happened nor whether this was before or after shootout on Laurel in Watertown when according to an eyewitness a vehicle crashed through police cruisers. Story makes some sense if he was different guy and that took place before, not after, the shootout in the street.

    Maybe the eyewitness is mistaken about seeing a suspect crashing through and rip off a police cars door after the shootout occurred. Or, possibly he’s telling the story of the suspect crashing through police car after shootout in street, because he was part of the cover-up and the story he was telling was in vogue at that point in time last night. The police should be asked the press and should respond and tell us when and where the fleeing took place, and the sequence of events.

  13. rgg,

    In response to your implications I can only plead guilty to “bad attitude.” There it is, no dispute.

    Regarding criminal activity, I can only quote that paragon of Americanism, The Ultimate TrueBlue Apple Pie He-Man Guy’s Guy Himself, Elvis:

    “I plead innocent to all charges.”

    I hereby wrap myself in an American flag.

    Frank,

    You are absolutely right, there are many conflicting, nonsensical reports emanating from Boston.

    Here’s a story from a two-year period of my life. Bear with me.

    I lived in the Oakland hills when the Loma Prieta earthquake hit. My mother in Florida saw on TV that the entire Bay Area was devastated. In reality, my wife and I experienced nothing more than a ho-hum carnival ride. Our “suffering” involved having to replace knickknacks on their shelves. Some people were hurt, for sure. 60 people died as a result of that earthquake, out of the 6 million or so who lived here then. I would never trivialize all those deaths, but there’s NO WAY the earthquake was “complete devastation” for the Entire Bay Area. When it was over all the area’s landmark buildings were still standing, and so were 99.999999% of its residents.

    Two years later, in ’91, we still lived in the Oakland hills when the Oakland hills fire hit. When it started I was exploring the town’s waterfront with my bicycle and camera. I saw a huge black cloud in the sky, roughly in the vicinity of my house, and rushed home.

    Once again, my mom was frantic. There was lots of bad info circulating nationwide about that fire.

    My wife and I listened carefully to the news and got a pickup loaded with valuables ready to leave town. When nothing happened we drove over to the firestorm just to judge our level of danger. Despite all the nationwide reports of COMPLETE AND TOTAL DEVASTATION FOR HUNDREDS OF MILES, in reality we lived less than two miles from ground zero and experienced nada.

    From those experiences, I think I’ve learned that the mainstream media makes a sincere effort to get it right, but they don’t always. They are in the business of news, and !Alarm! draws eyeballs, which is what they sell to make money. I don’t believe they intentionally distort facts. Losing credibility would be bad for business. But when in doubt – and there is lots of doubt about what’s going on in Boston – they do tend to err on the side of MORE ALARM.

    In Boston, two moronic pitiful loser sociopaths hurt a lot of people for no reason anyone else will ever truly be able to comprehend without being moronic pitiful loser sociopaths themselves. Maybe some other asshole losers were involved too. And the media doesn’t always get their facts straight, especially when they’re in a rush.

    According to Occam’s Razor, that’s about all there is to it. No vast international conspiracy, no Obama plot (he’s apparently not stupid, and he’s got enough problems without attempting vicious moronic plots too).

    And no sneaky attempts to deceive. Just the usual insufficient, incomplete, irrational, inconsistent info from career public servants counting the days til their retirement, who never signed up to deal with anything out of the ordinary in the first place.

    Here’s another quote which COMPLETELY explains the true facts:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor

    “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

    • While we’re twiddling our thumbs, here is my Loma Prieta story. I was within an hour past being on the 18th green of Santa Clara Golf Course. Had it struck earlier or I had teed off later, I would have had a very unusual situation that I don’t think is covered in the rule book. If I flub a putt because of an earthquake, or the ball misses the hole because of same, altering its trajectory at the last second, what is the ruling?

      My father was getting ready to watch the World Series, back on the east coast. All my parents saw was that section of the bridge falling, repeatedly. But their calls couldn’t get through because the lines were flooded. They were worried.

      We can’t joke around about terrorists acts, even casually online, my point. And someone might respond seriously. You never know.

      • rgg, your Loma Prieta story is funnier than mine!

        • Then I’ll finish the story. I was literally in the shower at the time, and decided it might be a good idea to sit down for a second. Our only misfortunes were that our chimney snapped and had to be rebuilt. Also a bottle of creme de menthe fell and broke (I hate the stuff), and for days the place smelled of creme de menthe.

  14. Great, great piece on Ellis at Grantland. It may not change anyone’s views on him, but at least you see the man and his life. Finally we see the individual.

    Two quotes:

    Ellis on the Bogut trade:

    “The thing is with that, you trade me, you didn’t let my agent know that you were going to trade me,” he says. “The killing thing about that, I’m in Sacramento, the trade deadline is going on and I talked to them. We talked to them. They said, ‘You’re not getting traded. You’re not going anywhere. Get ready for the game.’ I’m cool with that. We were just two games out of the eighth spot for playoffs. We rolling. Everybody’s jelling. We good. I get from the hotel to the gym. I’m getting dressed, the next thing you know, it comes on the bottom of the screen. One of my teammates sees it. I say, ‘Nah, I ain’t getting traded. They said I’m not getting traded.’ At the bottom of the screen, it comes across again. I’m fitting to go out there and work out for the game. Then Mark Jackson brings me back, he tells me, ‘Well, they didn’t want me to tell you, but I’m going to be a man and tell you we traded you.’ Those were his exact words.”

    Footnote 11:

    John Hammond, Milwaukee’s general manager, says Milwaukee made the trade because of Andrew Bogut’s injury woes and because the pairing of Jennings with Ellis, two of the faster guards in the league, intrigued the franchise.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9186861/the-life-career-milwaukee-bucks-guard-monta-ellis

    • Why didn’t Lacob want Ellis told he’d been traded? Was there ill will there?

      Seems like a shoddy way to treat people if you ask me. And reminiscent of the way Nellie was treated.

      • One more quote:

        Joe Lacob, who became Warriors co-owner in 2010, detailed the trade in an e-mail to the San Jose Mercury News’s Tim Kawakami. “I feel badly that players have to see their lives change on TV before we can even say anything,” he wrote. “Ridiculous. But it is the rules.” Lacob called Ellis “a tremendous talent and very exciting.” He added: “The fact is we just hit a home run.”

      • If I remember correctly, it was because he actually wanted to do it face to face, and in fact immediately drove to Sac with Myers and Riley to do so. Unfortunately, information travels much faster than humans theses days. Doesn’t always have to be a nefarious subplot of an evil mastermind.

        • Did they in fact meet face to face?

          • warriorsablaze

            I don’t know for sure… but that’s what I remember at the time.. Lacob specifically saying they drove there to meet face to face and being regretful that the news got there before he did.

        • So why this, again from Grantland?

          Then Mark Jackson brings me back, he tells me, ‘Well, they didn’t want me to tell you, but I’m going to be a man and tell you we traded you.’ Those were his exact words.”

          • warriorsablaze

            Because they wanted to tell him face to face as the management/ownership team? It wasn’t like he wasn’t going to be told, Jackson just chose not to wait for them to get to Sacramento.

          • Either that or Jackson is more of a man than Lacob. Hard to believe Lacob wouldn’t have prepped Jackson first for the reason you give, that Lacob couldn’t anticipate the problems of news spreading fast.

          • warriorsablaze

            Or maybe they don’t tell the players they are traded before they are actually traded? Around the trade deadline, there are tons of almost deals, discussions, rumors, etc… it would be ridiculous for the front office to keep the players in the loop during this process. No other team operates differently, but of course, on this blog Lacob is the devil so when he does what every other front office in the league does, he’s “less of a man”.

          • You have a tendency to avoid questions W’aB. Why didn’t Lacob prep Jackson?

          • warriorsablaze

            And you have a tendency to talk about your wild speculations as if they have any basis in facts. How can I answer a question about why Lacob didn’t prepare Jackson? And who says he didn’t? Deals are complex and often don’t come together until the very last minute…which was the case with the Monta trade. He obviously did tell Jackson how he wanted him to handle it, but based on Monta’s story Jackson chose to go his own way and tell him when he did. Nothing nefarious happened. Players get traded all of the time and the process –short of those situations where players are using their leverage to force a trade — almost NEVER involve the players or their agents until the deal is done. There was no disrespect or mistreatment… just business as usual. Same as pretty much every trade that has ever happened in the NBA.

        • your memory of the events is much the same as my recollection. another the twist to the story was how lacob’s fiancee at the time (is she still with him at the home games ?) had become close to the ex-cop married to ellis, and her disappointment. what ellis has provided here (a different personality might choose different memories or not seem as resentful) just supports the notion, circulated earlier this season when curry flourished, that he wasn’t exactly ideal leadership material.

          almost every decision lacob has made, and the manner chosen to disclose the process, we can put in perspective as his initiation as a rookie exec in big time hoops. the next twelve months should show us if he’s really learned anything, or simply has an abundance of confidence and won’t let a little turbulence change the course he’s set.

      • Who are we to challenge how Mr. Lacob, the smartest man in NBA handles his players? Unless we figure out how to buy a NBA franchise without taking a penny out of pocket, we haven’t earn the right to even question Mr, Lacob’s decisions.

        Mr. Lacob rules.

  15. Last thought on the end of the season—

    I think another thing that’s made it difficult to appreciate this season is the haze of promotion from within the organization and praise coming from without circling around Barnes and Bogut in particular, thicker than that in a college dorm room in the ’60s. Thanks for clearing some of the smoke, Feltbot.

    • lacob has been fairly consistent and true to himself from the start. other than ridder in marketing, weeks to crunch the $$ numbers, and the alpha assistant coach, everyone one he’s placed in a position of any significant authority (minority partners like west clearly don’t have it) didn’t establish meaningful n.b.a. clout independently from him. he’s been middle of the road and thoroughly conventional in all of his roster decisions, declining risk at every chance (k.brown, d.jordan, jenkins over lin, amnesty for bell not biedrins, barnes). and the big shill has been relentless.

  16. The players suck, the draft picks suck, the coaching sucks, the ownership sucks, the GM sucks, the hot dogs are pricey (okay – I made this one up! LOL!)… Really???

    How in the world can people here explain 47 wins and a 6th playoff seed in the West from this W’s team? For a team many people here predicted to win 30-35 games? A second year coach starting 2 rookies most of the year (UNHEARD OF!)? With 2 pre-season projected starters out most of the year?

    If you didn’t enjoy this W’s team this season and it’s nice core of young players – especially Stephen Curry, David Lee, Klay Thompson – I feel sorry for you guys… Stephen Curry is a once in a generation shooter.

    No one’s perfect – but something’s going awfully right with this organization.

    In Jerry West I Trust!

    • “How in the world can people here explain 47 wins and a 6th playoff seed in the West from this W’s team?”

      1. Curry
      2. Lee
      and other players have received appreciation and the coach approval here as well.

      I was in the 30-35 crowd at the start. Remind me to say why in a week or so.

    • “Perfect is the enemy of good” — said no one on this blog.

      It’s a sad display. Criticism is important when dealing with imperfect humans running imperfect organizations, but the near pathological negatively put forth here by rgg and Frank on this blog is just sad. I hope in your real lives, you can find some good because it will never be perfect and the grass isn’t always greener as you seem to believe with Lacob’s every move (or non-move).

      If you haven’t been able to enjoy this season, as imperfect as it has been, then perhaps another hobby would be a good idea?

    • So wrong. In LACOB we trust. umm, still wrong. In MR. LACOB we trust, the smartest man in NBA.

  17. warriorsablaze

    Lee runs into Bogut in the interior…. I have a feeling Felty will be mentioning that play in his recap. :)

    Klay having a great game…. hopefully Curry can find his shot in the second half. 6 assists, though… so making an impact.

  18. This game may well turn on which team garners additional possessions. The Warriors have one that battle so far. Not surprising is that warriors committed three less turnovers than Denver. Big surprise is that warriors had one more OR than Denver. Those four additional possessions is reflected in our four point lead. If Curry gets hot and we hold our own on extra possession, warriors should win the game.Watch the OR battle.

  19. Good timeout by Malone. He told Jackson to do so.

  20. Warriors went from committing three less turnovers in the first half to finishing the game down six in turnovers for the gam. The warriors extended their OR advantage to six for the game. OR advantage kept us in the game. Will that advantage rain when Faried returns. Not likely.. A combination of the Warriors tiring and Denver double teaming on the perimeter. Warriors never do that. Warriors not playing aggressively. Jackson sat on Hans too long as Miller, yes Miller torched the Warriors. allowed Denver to commit only 11 turnovers.Warriors holding Denver to 44 percent shooting should result in win. Warriors shot terrible.

    Bogut played well. Thompson shot well but stupidly made too many fouls harming his effectiveness.

  21. My thought before Lee went down was how much one more player might have helped in this game, and possibly the series. It might have been Rush, the way we projected him. He could have guarded Miller, provided the added scorer needed, and also drawn attention to make passes and free space for the others, especially Curry and Thompson, whomever was on the floor.

    But no one was added to the team to take his place, and team will pay for it. I won’t mention names here this time, but if you want to send your team to the playoffs and take them seriously, you don’t leave them shorthanded.

    Just having Brewer gave the depleted Denver squad a lift.

    Barnes, per Feltbot’s prediction, was left lightly attended and knocked down some shots when plays were set up for him. But he couldn’t generate scoring on his own or facilitate offense for others.

    Obviously having Green guard Miller was a good idea, at least in spots, decided too late. Thompson had heavy duty defensively and needed to have his fouls protected.

    I finally managed enthusiasm for Bogut in the four minute stretch 4th Q, the first time this season. He got crucial rebounds and finally drove and scored, which is what is most needed to justify his presence (but not the deal) and which was what they didn’t get first half. It worked, the way Karl was playing the game tonight, but it’s hard to believe that if Bogut became more of a threat Karl couldn’t easily adjust.

    Yet it’s going to be hard to forget how easily Anthony Randolph blew by him for the score. At least four of his rebounds were repeated put-backs of shots he kept missing. Running the offense through him up top just doesn’t work, as Feltbot keeps saying, though I guess they had to try something when Lee left.

    But Lee—I’m predicting a heroic and painful effort the next games. I will take my hat off while I watch.

    • I’m guessing they’re saving Faried until they really need him? He could have disrupted the big front court, slow offense the Warriors played first half. Karl has plenty of tricks to pull out of his bag.

    • Denver’s play surprised me. I especially thought we’d see more Lawson. Is he full strength?

  22. Does anybody know how to block Blake Griffin Kia commercials? I reached a critical point of nausea the other night and may have to go in for critical care.

  23. Great playoff game. Fantastic chess match. Heartbreaking loss.

    Bogut exceptional, proving me wrong? Curry taken out, as predicted — until that fourth quarter. Klay terrific. Devastated by Lee’s injury.

    Out with the Thaiblonde tonight. Recap tomorrow, hangover willing.

  24. Great game 1! Hope this sets up a classic series. The Ws can play with this team – especially in the half court.

    Andre Miller – perhaps Klay can guard him better. Draymond Green ain’t bad, but really missed Dominic McGuire and Brandon Rush. Barnes abused on def, although he hit his threes – more was needed from him period. Rush would have done much better. Heck – Bazemore even!

    Myth of Bogut – this is why he is needed. Playoff half court bball! Stepped up big time when Lee went down. Loved how he shoved McGee to the ground! Lol! Drew charges. Blocked/changed shots. Rebounded. Even finished a little around the rim.

    Curry – i was kinda disappointed in our star player – how he forced his offense in the first half amidst all the double teams, instead of creating more for others. Ws can win when he creates and makes the right decisions.

    Klay needs to make his fouls count – he’s irreplaceable. That missed layup hurt! Very good work from our budding star.

    Paul Pierce trade would have helped today! Lol! Need more from Barnes!

    • warriorsablaze

      Curry had 8 assists in the first half, so I think he did fine creating more for others. He was simply cold. He forced 2 at the most, with the rest being shots he’s made all year long. Denver played him tough with doubles, but I don’t think he was taken out… he got some good looks in the first half that just didn’t fall, and was great in the second half.

      Destroyed by the old man Miller all game. I was frustrated with a complete lack of help defense as Miller simply backed Jack, Barnes, and everyone else down to the rim with no big even shading over to challenge. I watched Lee leave Jack hanging at least 3 times down low… I guess that’s stretch 4 Chandler advantage, forcing Lee to cheat out to the perimeter.

      When Curry hit that three, I thought we could pull it off. Wish we would have packed the paint a bit on the final play… would rather give up the dish and jumper over an easy layup.

      • Would Richard Jefferson be able to guard Andre Miller’s post play? Draymond Green is more PF than SF or SG imo. Harrison Barnes can’t. Stephen Curry can’t. Klay Thompson – is probably our best alternative.

        • Draymond or Klay could slow down the post play… Klay should have gotten the call for the last play though. Green is a banger and hustles, but he’s not gonna stay in front of a PG iso starting at the top of the key… even a 37 year old one. The help should have collapsed harder IMO… especially Klay, since Iggy was on the perimeter and isn’t a great midrange shooter. Rather take a chance with that than an easy layup.

    • “Golden State coach Mark Jackson set the template for how to beat Denver in the postseason. It’s on videotape. And it will be copied from San Antonio to Oklahoma City and all other NBA cities from coast to coast.”

      High praise for Jackson and his crew here. I’m curious to see how Karl adjusts.

    • none of the info here is new ; these are challenges karl and his team have been responding to with varying success all season long. where does one suppose the woeyr coaching staff derived these hypotheses ? from studying the game tapes of other teams who applied the tactics. at the very beginning of the season karl himself discussed how they’d have to address losing some of their three point shooters in the off season, and slowing down the team who revels in transition and open court ball, how old is that ?

      some teams of course have personnel better suited to apply certain tactics than others. both miller and jack are suited to the deliberate half court game, but one of course has skills and court vision that also allows him to thrive in his team’s preferred mode, and many chapters of post season experience.

      • Again, put in context. The assumption for many earlier was that the staff was incompetent. They get praise for a close game last night.

        Yes, the old argument lingers: could this team have been built better? Could better use have been made of their key talents, a roster built around them that would have been more flexible and more competitive? Is the current staff capable of making and influencing decisions on the roster? Do they have the experience and talent to exploit such a roster?

        And the answers are: yes, yes, yes, probably not, and no.

      • Also, like you I suspect, I wanted to see an uptempo, early offense game where the team has been successful, which they can play with the right personnel on the floor, though they are shorthanded. Denver, with its roster now, would have had trouble keeping up, especially outside the paint, given their weak shooting.

        And we’ll never know because it wasn’t tried.

        • many of us probably knew while it was being played that the second quarter presented the best opportunity they’d have to win the game, but the offense kept sputtering and let Den stay close. the preacher isn’t a ‘seize the moment’ kind of coach with quick tactical adjustments.

  25. Lee is done. Poor guy… worked hard this year. Who will step up?

    http://www.ibabuzz.com/warriors/2013/04/21/david-lee-out-for-rest-of-playoffs/

    • Silence—and time for a moment of praise.

      Lee has been gutting it out, carrying a heavy load, working through injuries, and battling like a warrior and a Warrior for years. This is the same guy who suffered a bite, had a horrible infection which might have cost him a percentage of his arm muscles—they were debating at one point to fillet his arm to get rid of it—yet soon returned and battled the rest of the season.

      And here I suspect I can give Lacob credit. I really wonder about how the training staff handled the injury that night in NYC. Lacob replaced the staff and it appears that he took great measures to get Lee cured.

      • But OK, I got to say it. Lee played heavy minutes all season. It’s hard to prove anything here, but it’s hard to believe that time didn’t take its toll. There just wasn’t adequate backup to spell him.

        • I doubt there are many (if any) better back up 4′s in the league better than Landry. Lee’s heavy minutes had more to do with Bogut and Rush being out than not having a back up 4 specifically.

          Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but Lee came out of the game earlier with what looked like tightness or a cramp in his leg… had they been cautious it may have had a chance to work itself out instead of getting the full tear. Probably no way to realistically tell what was going on….I’m sure Lee just thought he was cramping up.. and he certainly wasn’t going to sit out as long as he could still walk.

          • the team is under-prepared for the post season in at least a couple of personnel areas. after jenkins was traded off the roster, the preacher resisted giving bazemore more than token minutes. bogut and landry have barely been on the court together in the absence of lee, so both are headed into unfamiliar regions as are their ‘mates and coaching staff.

          • It’s going to be interesting to see how the coaching staff replaces Lee’s minutes. He has been a real iron man this season, averaging 37.8 minutes per game to Landry’s 23.2. Leaving aside all that Lee brings to the game, that’s a lot of player minutes for a short-handed team to fill.

            Landry’s minutes will definitely increase, but even doubling them wouldn’t cover Lee’s time. After bumping Landry’s PT, then who else?

            Among Lee’s possible stand-ins, Landry has barely had any game time with Bogut, and he isn’t the ball distributor Lee is. Both Jefferson and Green can fill in at PF, and both could be serviceable high-post players, but neither has had significant playing time, especially with the starting lineup.

            Forget Barnes at PF. He doesn’t mix it up in the paint, doesn’t box out, doesn’t rebound well (4.1/game), and doesn’t play well with others on the team, averaging 1.2 assists on the season (and even less in the last 10 games).

            If Draymond Green is healthy (the team reported he had tendinitis last week), I’m guessing we’ll see a lot more of him. We’ll get some Jefferson sightings too.

            The real point here is that given the players available the team will have to play different game strategies without Lee, simply due to the different talents of the players available to take his PT.

            I’m guessing we’ll finally see some actual smallball with Landry at C. We might also see the team try some two-center Behemoth Ball, though I doubt that would be effective, or get much play, against Denver.

            It’s not over until the fat lady dunks on Kobe.

            Green might be ready to step up, and maybe Jefferson will finally get enough PT to get comfortable and show how he earned his big contract. But whoever plays, the team has to go into the rest of this Denver series with a different game plan, and THAT is going to be interesting.

        • I completely agree with you about this rgg, and actually wrote this opinion up before deleting it from my recap. The timing doesn’t seem right to bring this issue up.

          However, I do believe that the Bogut trade led directly to Lee’s heavy minutes — the most of any big man in the league — in not just this season, but the last as well. And therefore should be examined as a contributing cause of his two consecutive season ending injuries.

          • Nor do we have reason to believe the situation will be different next season. This is entirely on Lacob.

    • another player under utilized during the season, jefferson could give them a decent option at the 4 by further stretching the Den perimeter d and forcing faried into making decisions. we’ll see if they let the vet take up some of the load and how he responds.

  26. Denver can certainly be beaten by this W’s team in Game 2. I look more at Denver’s road record – and more days in Denver will only help the W’s adjust to Denver’s altitude advantage.

    HUGE loss of David Lee – undoubtedly the heart and soul of this W’s team…

    But the team rallied back after Lee’s injury and almost made the Nuggets 38-4 on their home court!

    Andrew Bogut can do some of the ball handling and passing that Lee did on offense including the running of the pick and roll. Not nearly as good as Lee at it, but he ain’t bad either.

    More minutes from Carl Landry at PF/C for sure…

    More Festus Ezeli? I’d love it. His athleticism/size, defense, and rebounding are needed.

    A small ball lineup of Barnes or Jefferson at PF can really space the floor. Jefferson should also improve the W’s defense. Jefferson’s got all those years of playoff experience too. Great way to showcase Jefferson too (and not if he bombs!)! Lol!

    Insertion of Draymond Green at PF – should really improve the defense (and hurt the offense) – and the W’s rebounding will still be strong.

    Coach Mark Jackson – is doing a great job. Hope he can steal a win in Game 2.

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