Get Bogut Off the Court: Kings 91 Warriors 90

I’m guessing this was just Mark Jackson experimenting in the preseason — hoping that’s what it was — but this loss was a simple case of playing the wrong lineup in the fourth quarter. It’s really as simple as that. 

In the fourth quarter, the Miami Heat sit Anthony and Haslem on the bench, shift Bosh to center and Lebron to stretch-four. And the court miraculously opens up for them.

In the fourth quarter, the OKC Thunder sit Perkins on the bench, shift Ibaka to center and Durant to stretch-four. And the court miraculously opens up for them.

In the fourth quarter, the Spurs sit Splitter on the bench, shift Duncan to center and Leonard to stretch-four. And the court miraculously opens up for them.

And yet here is Mark Jackson, possessed of potentially the most devastating fourth quarter small-ball closing unit in the game, stinking up the floor with Andrew Bogut.

Did you see Stephen Curry get the living crap blitzed out of him by Mike Malone in the fourth quarter? As Jerry West said, when asked about those blitzes last year: “That’s on the coaches.” Specifically, it’s on coaches who play Andrew Bogut in crunch time.

Take a look at the Curry/Bogut pick and roll at 2:00 4th quarter. Curry gets the crap blitzed out of him, and hits Bogut sliding down the lane. Only Bogut forgets to catch the ball. Why? We learned the answer in last year’s playoffs, when Jim Barnett accused Bogut of playing “hot potato” on catches in the lane: Bogut was afraid to catch the ball, because he didn’t want to have to go to the free throw line in crunch time. In addition to arthritis, Bogut has Biedrinsitis.

Now take a look at the Curry/Lee pick and roll at 0:50. Curry gets the crap blitzed out of him, and hits David Lee. Lee, of course, catches the ball easily and storms down the lane… only to run straight into Bogut’s man, Jason Thompson. Why? Why is Bogut’s man standing still as a rock under the basket, waiting?

Because Bogut doesn’t need to be guarded.

Because Bogut doesn’t spread the floor.

Andrew Bogut stinks up the lane for the entire Warriors offense. We learned this lesson, or should have learned it, in last year’s playoffs against the Spurs, when everyone from Jeff van Gundy to Mitch Richmond noted that the difference between the two teams was that the Spurs had centers who could convert the pick and roll, and the Warriors didn’t. And that the Warriors were playing “3 on 5.”

The Warriors were playing 3 on 5 again last night in crunch time. Just as they were playing 3 on 5 to start the first and third quarters. And will be playing 3 on 5 every single moment that Bogut and Andre Iguodala are on the court together. When you have decided to replace Jarrett Jack with Iggy in the crunchtime lineup, you absolutely MUST have a shooting center on the floor. There is no other choice. You MUST get Bogut off the court.

If you want to be able to put the ball in Stephen Curry’s hands and ask him to create, without fear of him getting the living crap blitzed out of him, you absolutely MUST get him a shooting center to play pick and roll with, and spread the floor. There is no other choice. You MUST get Bogut off the court.

David Lee is the best pick and roll center in the NBA, hands down. Stephen Curry and David Lee, if they ever got a chance to show it, would be one of the best pick and roll tandems the league has ever seen. The Warriors have two very capable stretch-fours, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. And if you truly must have size on the court (which you absolutely DON’T, against the under-talented Kings), then Mo Speights can stretch the floor for Curry and Lee.

The Warriors demonstrated all season long last year what they could do in crunchtime with a Nellieball lineup. Against the best teams in the league. Against the Heat in Miami, for heaven’s sake.

Now, the addition of Andre Iguodala, and the maturation of Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green, promises to make those Nellieball closing units more potent than ever. Unguardable on offense. And yet still long, quick and nasty on defense. A veritable point-differential machine.

IF.

If Mark Jackson doesn’t choke.

If he doesn’t screw the pooch on the best — and most dynamic — roster the Warriors have had since the Rick Barry era.

It’s just the preseason, and Jackson is just getting guys in shape, and experimenting. Right?

Right?

Because if not — if this game signifies that Mark Jackson believes Bogut’s “return to health” means that the Warriors should try to win basketball games by scores of 91 to 89 — like his old Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks — then one of the greatest crimes against basketball that’s ever been committed is about to take place.

64 Responses to Get Bogut Off the Court: Kings 91 Warriors 90

  1. I missed the game…What was your take on the rookies? Do you think Draymomd is capable of effectively guarding the 2 with his slimmer physique and more importantly do you think he could ever develop into a 32 min+ player? Thnks

    • Draymond could cover most opposing 3s and 4s while providing a credible corner shooting threat on O. By Felt’s spread-the-floor plan, that might put Lee and Speights at the bigs, or just Lee, Green and 3 smalls. It probably depends on who steps up and sinks ‘em in crunch time.

      I was interested to see last night that Jackson had Green bringing the ball upcourt several times in the 4th. In that role, Green isn’t quick but he does protect the ball and pass well. O turnovers last night. Terrible shooting, though.

      I totally agree with Felt’s take on closing strategy, but I see that Bogut and Iggy had the two highest +/- ratings on the team. Maybe it’s good that the coach isn’t a stats guy.

      One thing that’s a little worrisome after watching the preseason games is that unless JON and/or Speights step up, Lee is probably going to lead the team in minutes again this year. For a guy who finished two seasons in a row injured, that’s not good.

      FWIW, my take on Barnes’ injury is “sit down and let the coach look at everyone else.” If he didn’t have an “injury,” the team would have to discuss that decision with the press. That would be a distraction. With an “injury,” no pointy questions.

  2. The Warriors lost the game primarily because Jackson played Speights, Douglas, Bazemore, and Green together for a good par of the fourth, and none of them could hit the side of the barn., Yes, Bogut soulful not have been played, but that hardly leads to your conclusion that Lee should have played center and the Warriors would have won.

    The warriors defense has greatly improved. Seeing the Kings commit 8 more turnovers than theWarriors, one can only hope will continue.Good to see JON give the Warriors three extra possessions via OR’s. while Bogut had a good offensive game, he had no OR’s, no steals, no blocks, and one turnover.

    The Warriors shot well in 2nd and quarter and scored 30 points in each. Until they run Iggy, Thompson, and Barnes scoring 2′s will be limited. scoring 2′s wii be limited, don’t see Iggy shooting 52 percent on 2′s or scoring many points without the Warriors running. All we see us qick and effective shoots by Curry in the half-court game.

  3. Thanks, Feltbot, but I still got the jitters.

    How many times did the Warriors score only 9 points in a quarter last season without Bogut? I haven’t checked, but I’m guessing 0, that the worst output doesn’t come close.

    How many slow first quarters with Bogut? (20 last night)

    The other problem has to be the bench, why they can’t score, how they blew the lead. I didn’t see the game. Any thoughts here? And I don’t see Barnes making up the difference. Even if he does maintain his average shooting % he’ll need someone to feed him.

    Last night McLemore and Thomas scored 30 points for Sacramento. Crawford and Collison scored 31 for the Clips. In Houston’s last game, Beverly and Garcia scored 25.

    Curry and Iguodala can’t be spelled to play the whole game. Thompson can’t be played 48 minutes. I don’t see how the second unit can ever succeed without a perimeter threat, someone who could even run with Curry and Thompson when the team can go small. The Warriors’ most pressing need is to get a guard(s?) who can manage the court well enough and score.

    Bazemore had his chance at 1 all summer, and the returns are clear. I suspect he will be spotty at 2, and to play there he needs a 1 with a head who can score as well to open up the court. If Bazemore is brought in for defensive purposes, you’re conceding defeat. (Who was guarding Thomas?)

    Douglas doesn’t look to have good court presence at 1, either, but he’s supposed to be able drive and shoot 3′s, right? The only option I see is that they play Nedovic at 1 and Douglas at 2, and let both shoot. Nedovic has proved he can marshall an offense in Europe and should get up to speed well enough, fast enough. If Douglas can score, he needs someone to feed him and an offense that will open the court for him.

    And if that doesn’t work, start shopping.

    Quick.

    • concur, they might have to go into acquisition mode between now and the trade deadline to help the bench. NN or douglas has to step up and show he can play lead guard for ten minutes per game, and another bench guy (if thompson starts) needs to produce points consistently the way landry did. they probably don’t see both of those ingredients materializing, and it will be in myers’ hands again if they expect to prove they’re legit contenders.

  4. If MJ repeats the same lineups against Portland tonight, we should really get some worthwhile feedback.

    • I don’t expect the starters to play much at all tonight… regardless of the situation. Jackson has already hinted at it, and I suspect that’s the reason the deep bench all got DNP’s last night.

      I don’t think we’re really gonna get a feel for how the team is clicking until we’re 15-20 games in… lots of new moving parts that have to learn to play with each other. If MJ adopts the wrong strategy with poor results, he’ll be forced to adjust.

  5. Simmons/Rose Warriors preview:

    http://www.grantland.com/nbapreview2013

    Rose gets it 100% right on the thing most Warriors fans and writers can’t grasp, and the subject of this post: the choice between Bogut and Lee at center.

  6. Thanks for the post Felt… nothing to really disagree with. To me, what I want from Jackson is the ability to be both proactive and reactive in regard to the game situation. Sometimes you might want Bogut in there at the end if the emphasis is rebounding and defense… other times — especially last night once Cousins fouled out — Bogut probably wasn’t necessary. It seemed to me like we went into a sort of “prevent defense” mode instead of stepping on the gas pedal. It happened a lot last year as well and we often lost leads because of it. Jackson should just let them free and forget about being conservative.

    While I don’t believe we’re going to often see a pure bench unit like last night much during the season, the inability to get baskets almost makes me want Klay as 6th man even more. We have a lot of defense on the bench , but not much offense. Barnes is too passive to have an impact off the bench… he’s best at this point as a 3rd or 4th option feasting off Curry’s scraps.

  7. There’s a proverb that goes something like this – it’s not man who starts good, but the one who finishes (good).
    In relation to yesterday’s game – when you have opponents on the brink of collapse (-17), push it harder, don’t let them get a breather, but jackson did with his hockey substitution which slowed the game for warriors and opened for kings, and the end is just a rude awakening from a perfect dream.
    As for Bogut at the end yesterday, one may accept that he is not necessary, but don’t overcomplicate with running pick’n’roll when he does not want, if you insist on having him on the floor and included in offense, heck, without cousins, post him up at least.
    Oh, well, there were some really beautiful moments with our starters yesterday. Hope the bench catches up.
    But there will be a lot of big ball this season, so, feltbot, you’ll have lots to rant about.
    I personally lost lots of money on the game, hearing that jackson will take it as a regular season game and knowing that there’s no way kings are more talented than warriors. From a cigar 4 minutes ”till the end of third to a numb stare at the stream come last seconds.

    • hope you’re jesting about betting on GS, or have so much $$ that wasting it is fun, because if not, you have a potentially harmful gambling addiction. Sac made the woeyrs look mediocre last season with Malone sitting with the preacher, and you may assume they’ll be better prepared this year.

      • true that kings somehow manage to get under warriors skin, but also true that there’s no way a competent game management would waste a 17 point late game lead to an inferior team.
        well, no I have less SS, gonna be a slimmer diet for few months.

    • I’m not against big ball per se, nor am I against this Warriors team playing big most of the game against big teams. What I’m against is failing to get the most out of your roster’s potential.

      • I’m not saying that you are against per se (i.e. your love of grizzlies).
        Against portland they played dgreen for most third quarter at 4, but the game went ugly really fast with being unable to defend, portland becoming more aggressive and warriors being unable to run or pass at the rate fast enough to play stretch ball. Probably fatigue, still, outside amazing spurts from our starters at times and dgreen getting hot in lakers game, warriors did not look as a top seed in the conference this preseason. But it might be just a trick to play wrong ball to lure teams and bookies into thinking warriors will fall to the middle of the pack: 5-7 seed.
        More questions than answers so far.

  8. Just watched the Simmons/Rose show on the Ws. Thanks for the link, FB. Fun stuff!

    Then I sat through their show on the Mavericks. Dirk is a joke, Vince Carter (huge money-time winner, lifetime .443 wing shooter) is a joke, and Shawn Marion is best as trade bait. Dalembert plays only 50 games. Calderon gets no mention. Ellis is lame-o.

    Shucks. I know the Simmons/Rose shows are just “entertainment,” but:

    “Coach Rick Carlisle… has been impressed by Ellis’ defensive intensity… Cuban loves the way Ellis has aggressively attacked the basket, creating for himself and teammates…”

    What? DEFENSIVE intensity from Ellis? And on offense Ellis creates opportunities for everyone on the team? Who woulda figured?

    Anyone who ever actually watched Ellis play. I have personally witnessed him destroy Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, and Devin Harris all in the same season, leading an inferior Warriors team to unexpected wins against all their teams.

    I witnessed the travesty of Mark Jackson’s first season with the Ws when his only hope of winning anything was to call Monta’s number, as expected by everyone within satellite range. And when Monta left that crappy team with its idiot coach it had a 45%+ record.

    For 6 years now, I’ve seen Ellis single-handedly carry some awful Warriors and Bucks teams to wins. That includes two Bucks wins over the Ws last year, both of which came down to one final shot. Both made by Ellis. Money.

    Dallas has a number of problems Simmons/Rose didn’t touch on. Post play isn’t going to be their thing. Rebounds are going to be a problem. V Carter is very old. Their backup C is a twig and a sissy, and at the moment he is busted up again.

    Dudes.

    Ellis has spent most of his NBA career to date being double- and triple- teamed. As a result his results look inefficient. Now he’s surrounded by experienced, first-cut, cold-blooded shooters. Do ya think that will make a difference? Ellis took a $4M annual pay cut to play with the Mavs. He’s betting the culture and the talent will make all the difference in the world. And he knows a little about the game.

    Calderon isn’t quick, his D is serviceable at best, and he’s not an outstanding shooter, but he rarely makes mistakes. Vince Carter is Vince Friggin’ Carter. Older, slower, etc., but still money. Dirk and Marion? Money.

    Dallas isn’t going to OWN the west – too weak at the post, too little team depth – but they’re going to handle some teams everyone loves (Clippers, Spurs) and create huge problems for others like the Ws.

    Place your bets. I’ll make sure to remind y’all about this prediction at season’s end.

    • +1 interesting fact: Ellis is leading the Mavs in assists in the preseason, and the announcers are raving about his PNR chemistry with both Dirk and BWright. I’m confident that Carlisle gets him, and will get the most out of his talents. And there is plenty of offense around him this season, which should open the floor for him.

      I just added him to my sleeper list and drafted him 23rd. He’s only projected for 4.9 assists, which I think he’ll exceed with ease. Point Monta is here.

    • Last night, Ellis went 5-13 with 5 assists and 6 turnovers. Doesn’t sound like much of a change to me.

    • Joking aside… he is getting more assists, which is nice. Still shooting pretty terribly, though. Preseason doesn’t matter, though. I agree he’s likely to have a bounce back year this year. He should , anyway. It’s up to him.

  9. Just looking at the Portland box score. Has Curry ever had a worse shooting slump, regular season, preseason, summer league, college–ever?

    But what kind of shots is he taking, in what kind of offensive scheme? Last preseason game I watched, seems to me he was forcing shots, a lot mid-range or driving, without much opening.

    • Both he and Klay shot extremely poorly to start last season, and Curry shot poorly to start his rookie season too.

      It’s called training camp legs. Two a days are exhausting.

  10. Warriors waive Seth, Alexander, AND Dedmon. Which leaves a spot open, right?

    I don’t understand this–and I’m not sure Dedmon has more upside than Bazemore. Bazemore didn’t have a guaranteed contract, right?

    (I assume the site is under construction.)

    • Or are they leaving a roster slot open for some future deal? Imminent? They will need more help this season.

      My main concern about preseason is that they didn’t explore offensive possibilities in the subs, who couldn’t score. There was plenty of time to experiment. And they had scrubs to play against most of the time. They should be able to score.

      Specifically give Douglas more time–and shots–to see what he could add. Or is the problem that the subs didn’t have a good floor leader to set the big guys up? And/or was the offensive plan bad? If the subs were geared to defense and a slow, controlled offense, that is a mistake. They should have the players who can run and work an open floor.

    • correct, Bazemore’s contract is not guaranteed, but it was the biggest of the non guaranteed deals on the books and becomes guaranteed in Jan. around the same time as the trade deadline. he probably has the support of a lobby amongst the coaches and brain trust, and with the coaching/playing invested in him hope to see results in their uniform and not another team’s. Dedmon, o.t.o.h., they could easily perceive as replaceable if they need another big body from the d-league, like they’ve done before. they’ve also seem much more of Kuzmic that the rest of us on this continent.

      if they’ve noticed what everyone else has, the bench needs a scorer, so the vacant roster spot doesn’t hurt.

      • That should leave $3-4m to spend now without going over the cap, right?

        Bazemore, I understand, appears as a cheerleader in the latest NBA video game. Guber may have had a vote here.

  11. Interesting look at the Warriors by an “enemy scout”

    All of the themes we’ve been discussing are evident, plus some worry about losing Mike Malone.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20131024/warriors-nba-season-preview/

  12. The warriors have gone from 4 consistent shooters in Curry, lee, Landry and Jack to just two this year with the loss of Lack and Landry. And last night’s loss is no surprise with Lee out and Curry having a horrific shooting night.

    The Warriors made a big mistake signing Douglas as the back-up point PG as he is not an assist man. Barring a trade, the Warriors should play Nedovic who is a good assist man and seems to get to the foul line.

    Irrespective of the Warriors shooting woes last night, the Warriors held the Blazers to 36 percent shooting and committed 8 less turnovers than the Blazers, but still lost by 16 points mainly due to the Blazers going to the line 16 more times than the Warriors.

    The Warriors are going nowhere with Speights playing. The Warriors should play Lee, Barnes, and Dedmon at PF, and JON, Lee, and Bogut at center. I like Lee at center with Dedmon at PF.

    It seems apparent that the Warriors offense is going nowhere unless Lee, Curry, and Iggy shoot a lot.

    Thompson and Barnes are too inconsistent shhoting and don’t get enough OR’s, steals, assists, nor get to the foul line to be considered part of the Warriors future if the Warriors expect to win a championship. The so-called experts have it all wrong when they say the Warriors will be a contending team especially if Jackson refuses to let team run, and plays the wrong players.

    Thompson should stay for now. Barnes has to go so the team can meet some of there present needs.

    If Bogut is resigned, warriors will have virtually checkmated themselves from signing free agents next year.

    Jackson is wrong going tall with Bogut and Speights when both are at best so-so shooters and neither can hit the three ball.

    For those who love defense and rebounds,Dedmon is your man- 5 rebounds in only 8 minutes last night.

  13. Spurs add Josh Howard. Underrated move, if he stays healthy.

    http://www.insidehoops.com/blog/?p=14640

    The Warriors could use another vet themselves. Awful lot of young players in big roles.

  14. I disagree somewhat with the notion that the bench needs a scorer. What they need is:

    1) A system. In particular, they need to get out and run, which is never a point of emphasis when working in new players in training camp. The halfcourt system is a more important focus.

    2) Stop playing big ball on the second unit. Most teams don’t, so why should the Warriors? This is a problem that should resolve itself naturally in the regular season.

    3) Harrison Barnes – a key cog in allowing them to play smaller, and more uptempo.

    4) Unleashing Tony Douglas. If you go back through my archives, you will notice that Mark Jackson had Jarrett Jack on a leash in the early part of last season, which caused him to get off to a very slow start. (And caused me to drop him from my fantasy teams. I never got him back — argh.)

    Douglas should be allowed to look for his own shot, and jack up threes at will. He’s capable of carrying not just a second unit, but an entire team.

    5) Real games. It’s preseason, folks. Expectations are high, so it’s appropriate to feel uneasy (as my post exemplified). But preseason has literally nothing to do with the regular season. Coaches are getting fat players in shape, and experimenting with lineups they have no real intention of using. Players with nothing to prove are playing at half speed, and shooters are fighting dead legs.

    Preseason is truly meaningless.

    Here’s the Spurs preseason record: 3-4. Look familiar? And they didn’t have a China trip.

    • Yup. Indiana went 2-5… don’t see that as indicative of much.

      As far as second unit scoring, I don’t think we’re going to see much of the hockey-style platooning and instead more blended line ups. At least one of Curry, Klay, Iggy, or Lee should be on the court at all times.

      • ‘At least one of Curry, Klay, Iggy, or Lee should be on the court at all times.’

        Except for pending blowouts. Oh, wait…

      • the preseason records for SA or Ind are just numbers because they have coherent systems and team identities, whatever they did in the exhibition games. the woeyrs didn’t establish who they are.

    • The Warriors don’t have anyone on the order of Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, Beverley, or CJ Watson of old, or Lin for that matter, and it doesn’t look they have anyone now who will develop to that level now or in the future, unless Nedovic is a surprise. It’s not at all clear they’re committed to Douglas, nor have we seen what he can do yet. Someone has to spell the starters and step up in case of you-know-what. Or just give starters a rest, as San Antonio can do with Parker.

      I’d rather see a player with a history of offensive skill and a head on his shoulders, even if undersized, who can learn to become an average defender rather than the other way around, which is what the team has done the past years. I’d be happy to see a player like the Reggie Williams we saw under Nelson, who could fill in at 2 or 3.

      What happened to Williams? I know he battled injury. Is he not being played, or played correctly, or just hasn’t proved himself? Nelson was really high on him, and while we’re on the subject, I’m curious how he’d run the second unit and what players he would have brought up.

      • Reggie Williams is on a very good team and could be an ideal back up for Harden. another three point shooter to worry the woeyrs in that match up, which showed signs of a chippy rivalry last season. last season, after missing the first quarter of the season recovering from surgery, he was on jordan’s folly, one of the assoc.’s worst teams, featuring a motley assembly of guards. in that situation, it’s often the promising younger players or the high priced vets who get opportunities, and he was neither. he still came out as the team’s leader in points or assists in a handful of games.

        the contract Douglas landed is a good indication of the extent his team has committed to him. the market timing for jack (NO wanted to gain cap room) and landry helped them get one year leases on those two established vets, but the lacobites didn’t go after similarly priced players for the bench this summer. clever coaching can get a lot from a discount bench, but speights or douglas might be beyond the preacher and his crew’s capacities. Malone was the assistant in charge of player development, and that might be an area where his absence will be felt as much as any.

  15. http://nba.si.com/2013/10/25/andrew-bogut-warriors-contract-extension-agree-sign-deal/?sct=hp_t2_a4&eref=sihp

    Crap.

    Crap.

    Crap.

    Which I guess explains why Dedmon was let go. I suppose we knew this was coming. Also I was looking forward to shutting up about Bogut.

    But with a little vision and intelligent roster moves, the team had the means to be a threat for the next three years.

    • And they still do… this is a pretty friendly contract with a relatively low (compared to contracts for other bigs) base salary that includes incentives for Bogut being healthy. Also, it descends each season to allow for more flexibility over the life of the contract.

      • Apparently there are incentives if he performs as a top 7 center… how do you determine that? Interested to see if those details come out and by what metric they make that determination.

        • the only incentive that Bogut is likely to meet is the 65 game marker. all star, all-n.b.a., defense all-n.b.a., def. player of the year, not bloody likely.

    • The deal is both cautious and risky at the same time, and even with health, the returns are at best middling.

      It has Lacob written all over it. Count on Bogut starting every game and closing every game he is healthy. Count on Bogut determining future picks as well.

      My Warrior flag is at half-mast.

    • What does a ranking of Bogut’s season where he played 32 games and could barely walk have to do with anything? Unless the point you’re trying to make is that he was injured last year. He was.

    • It was the top position that intrigued me. Bogut’s ranking last season, of course, is meaningless.

      • Fair enough… don’t know what the metric is, but it seems heavily determined by offense. I’d say the best centers in the game right now have more impact on the defensive end…. for example, I’d take Hibbert, Noah, or Gasol over Al Horford every single time. Lee seems to be the only one that pops out at me that isn’t primarily a center.

        • Most likely. And, as you say, it could be argued Lee shouldn’t be in the list but should be compared to other FC’s, like Duncan.

          A true center is a limited position, and each should be measured by how much he contributes to the overall performance of the team, regardless of his particular skills. Noah, by such a measure, would be ranked higher.

          But sticking with that list, what intrigues me is that none of the top ten centers were with a top four team last year, and only one with top four teams in each conference, Lopez for Brooklyn. (You should really add Gasol for Memphis.) The best teams are playing with without the traditional dominating center.

          • warriorsablaze

            This list seems pretty useless… how is David Lee considered a center but Duncan not? Both play minutes at the 5. Also, decent players on bad teams always put up stats… they don’t have to share as much. Either way, to your point… if you consider the top teams by playoff results, 2 of the top 4 and 5 of the final 8 had traditional centers playing key roles. Regardless of this silly list, Noah, Gasol, Hibbert, Chandler, and yes even Bogut are all upper tier centers. They don’t have to dominate to be effective, regardless of Lacob trying hard to sell the Monta deal to the fans.

            There’s really not much to say about Bogut until we get a solid 25-30 games with this roster. I expect some growing pains, but also expect things to eventually come together. Maybe not a #1 seed as Felt boldly predicted, but certainly in the mix for top 5.

  16. Will Bogut’s incentives count against the cap? (Why wouldn’t they?)

    If so, they’re likely to put the Warriors into tax–at 2x? So if Bogut plays to the potential they believe he has–what would be expected of any “top 5 center” (as everyone keeps saying, and now Bogut is shooting for top 3, so he says, whatever that means)–they could pay up to, what, $50 million over three years? What else could they have done with that money? Among other things, they’ve cut their chances, if not eliminated them, for a really major signing in any of the next three years.

    My heart is in my stomach.

    • the ceiling of bogut’s deal is the the 43-45 m. ball park. the base guaranteed amount actually declines each year of the contract, so even with the incentives the potential max cap hit also declines. the brain trust also has a pretty good notion about how much the cap itself is likely to increase during the term of the contract.

      there were plenty of fans and pundits — and a fair number of ‘em have persisted — who thought d.lee’s contract would be a sinkhole with no way out. that signing came under the preceding regime, but lacob heartily endorsed it. the bogut deal seems very much in character with what we’ve heard from the owner since — his faith in what hoops precepts he holds is like the preacher’s in his convictions, and bogut’s signing is very much in character with their union. if we expected something else from them, the fault lies in our understanding of who they are.

  17. Oh god, I landed the 3rd pick in a fantasy league drafting Sunday, and have to choose between Harden and Curry….

  18. Felty, you picked the Warrriors top dog in the West knowing that Jackson is not going to let the dogs out and run. Is not often going to play Lee at center in crunch time. So don’t rely on these excuses for the debacle that is about to take place. The style Bogut plays and that Lacob extolls is both boring and outdated. It will be interesting to see if Lacob is sitting at half court at mid-season. He wii deserve to be booed. I predicted se time ago the Warriors will have more draughts in scoring during the course of a game. We’ve seen that already in preseason. Scoring less than 100 points a game is going to be a repeated occurrence. Fans deserve much better. Rgg is so right that hopes were raised only to be dashed for the foreseeable next few years. Wish it was otherwise.

    How people with brains and a fervent desire to win can be so foolish is difficult to comprehend. To bad Larry Ellison’s higher offer wasn’t accepted years ago.

    Last year masked what a disaster this ownership group is and how they squandered putting together a great team by drafting Thompson over K. Leonard, Barnes over Harkless, trading for Bogut, and not amnestying Biedrens, not managing budget so Jack could be resigned, signing Speights and Douglas, extending Bogut’s contract, and hiring the preacherman.

  19. Oh no, Lou Amundson is available…

  20. Suns looking to dump Dragic next. They’re serious players in Tankapalooza.

    http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nba/214815/report-suns-trying-to-deal-goran-dragic

    Would you trade Harrison Barnes for him?

    • A case could be made that this would lead to a better team this year. But would they be getting the perceived value of Barnes, if there is one? The only loss would be Barnes projected superstar abilities. Ha.

      • trading barnes for dragic just isn’t the way this team operates. dragic is getting considerably more than jack for another two seasons. he probably expects a role on a team at least comparable to jack’s as well. there were other good guards available for less when they shopped for a reserve and settled for douglas.

        almost any team with a similar player to barnes (w. respect to both age and ability) on a rookie contract (< a third of dragic's $$) will retain him two or three seasons to establish what he is, but this owner in particular with his marketing mania and expectations that the players reflect some notion of a team character won't give barnes up now for a reserve. the potential asset value of the second year and rookie players on this team might also be tilted slightly because the team will have a reduced stake in the coming drafts without further deals.

  21. We have every reason to believe that Size Matters Lacob (and probably Meyers, the 6’8″ giant who dominated six-foot San Quentin inmates, the inmates I’m sure not playing as rough as they usually do in the yard—a couple of elbows to the chest, a knee to the groin, would have slowed him down) watched the entire last season believing the Warriors would have won more games had Bogut been healthy, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. Then Lacob got his “proof” in the post season in a couple of games against Denver, when Lee went down. I’m curious what he would have done had Bogut missed the playoffs.

    Bogut’s contract shows neither Bogut nor Lacob believe privately Bogut is the top center everyone claims and/or his health will hold out (will we ever be able to separate these factors?). The incentives are pure fantasy and not that great, but should Bogut ever attain them, I’m guessing the cap is built around his standard pay and it’s likely they’ll pay tax on the extra $7m. It is the salary of a middle of the pack center, and they will be lucky to get that level of performance. But still he’s going to draw a lot of money that could have been better spent elsewhere, without so much risk. It is a cautious deal with big bucks and big risk and low pot odds.

    Stats that make make players climb up rankings are not always significant. We’ve seen several gunners who score enough points to move them up on the offense charts, even, over the course of a season, shoot at an OK average. But game to game performance may be spotty and they detract from the rest of the team by not getting them into play and diminishing their offense. These guys tend to be bad defenders as well.

    A center’s stats can be deceiving as well. He may pull down a lot of rebounds, enough to put him near the top of the very small list of capable centers, but at what price? Odds are he’s taking boards from more versatile, valuable players. If his mobility is limited and his range narrow, i.e. in the red, and he can’t play out, he may not be helping the defense that much, in fact may be putting strain elsewhere. He may well be dictating what lineups opponents put on the floor to his team’s disadvantage, faster squads with outside shooters, i.e. serious playoff teams, who can more than offset whatever stats the center racks up. And these centers tend to be offensive liabilities.

    Bogut.

    It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Bogut does in fact get those stats and receives the acclaim of national media writers and small children—and doesn’t take them far in the playoffs, if they get there. But never mind. It would be the fault of the rest of the team, not our top center.

  22. Barnes has to be traded to fill some needs, but Dragic is not that player. No defense, as PG and SG shoot over 50 per cent from the field playing against him. Not an extra possession player. Three point shooting below par. Nor are Warriors going to trade Barnes as they love the guy or don’t want to show they made a mistake in the draft.

    • On the other hand, the Warriors need Dragic’s assists, but would he be more valuable than losing Barnes as Lee’s back-up? Tough call.

  23. Stanford Business School and Bain are the new route to NBA GM jobs:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wizards/nba-embraces-advanced-analytics-as-moneyball-movement-sweeps-pro-basketball/2013/10/25/1bd40e24-3d7a-11e3-b0e7-716179a2c2c7_story.html

    My next crusade: Proving that Don Nelson grasped everything about these analytics before they were even invented. It is amazing to me that in an era where most of the league is transitioning to Nellieball, and Nellieball teams are competing for and winning championships, his influence goes completely unrecognized.

    • It’s not hard to imagine GM’s bypassing coaches and using stats to make lowest common denominator acquisitions and strategy decisions. Intelligence will always know how to capitalize on statistical trends, and how to counteract them. I’d like to see the Warriors become a mecca for superior basketball minds, as happened with the 49s in the Walsh era.

      I wouldn’t mind, however, a little Moneyball with roster pickups.

      Not gonna happen with this FO. Lacob is locked into the three player mode and is not going to turn control over.

  24. Any chance Nedovic could turn into another Dragic? Their numbers, on the surface, are similar. If so, it would be a boon for the team the next years.

    Dragic, however, got a chance to play serious minutes the last two years. Nedovic won’t develop until given time on the court.

  25. @21

    Dragic really is too expensive for what he’d offer the team. But they would be better.

    Lacob hasn’t brought in any serious backup at any position in his four years, who might have developed over the years and would have been useful now and in the future, except Ezeli, for whom we have hopes. Green we like but his role will be limited. (Again, Landry and Jack don’t count because they were only kept for a year.)

    Lacob’s efforts have gone to limited oneway players (Amundsen, McGuire) or compromise centers (Tyler, Brown, and Biedrins by not amnestying). Or potential backup guards have been sacrificed to make room for his center deals and preserve cap (Lin, even Jenkins, who might be better at point than Bazemore). All gone now. Nor was there money all those years to pick up anyone else who would have been a bit more expensive and better.

    And of course money and future picks and Brandon Rush have been sacrificed in the Bailout of Summer ’13. More center fill-ins may have to be made in the future in the event Bogut goes down in the next four seasons, at the expense of other players on the roster.

    Several small investments years ago would have produced dividends now. They especially needed to get a backup PG developing, all the more when Ellis was traded.

    The $7m to Kwame Brown still lingers foul in memory. What if they had picked up a player of the caliber of Hickson instead?

    (Feltbot: I assume you know the site has been funky, the theme formatting coming and going over the past days.)

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