This is going to be an annihilation. I don’t have much to add to my previous analysis of the way these two teams matchup, so with apologies, I’ll just link to it here.
The only thing that’s changed from that prior analysis is that Mike Conley, who was playing through severe plantar fasciitis anyway, has now broken his face to boot, and will likely miss most, if not all, of the series. (The thought crossed my mind that his plantar fasciitis actually caused his broken face: would he have slipped and fallen into that elbow if healthy?) He’ll be replaced by Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes.
With Conley’s loss, the Grizzlies will not only be without their leader and second best player, but they won’t have a single playoff caliber scorer at the guard positions. Not one. Hard to win like that against the league’s best defense.
The Grizzlies are thought to have the edge down low against most teams. But not against the Warriors’ crossmatch. Andrew Bogut will simply take Zebo off the chessboard. Zebo can’t bully him, can’t shoot over him, can’t offensive rebound against him, and the Warriors could care less if he takes his game outside and starts shooting mid-range twos.
Perhaps the Grizzlies will convince Marc Gasol that he needs to exploit the Draymond Green crossmatch, and show him the means to do so? I’m skeptical. With Zebo and Tony Allen off the ball, the Warriors will simply collapse into the paint and double any post move. The Grizzlies don’t have the shooting to make the Warriors pay.
On defense, the Grizzlies badly need to get Tony Allen on Curry, and some length on Klay, perhaps Jeff Green, but that won’t be enough. (Maybe this is the series that Harrison Barnes breaks out? Being guarded by Udrih and Calathes?) The Grizzlies just don’t have enough long defenders to trouble the Warriors’ All-World backcourt. And they don’t have a prayer at keeping up with the Warriors in transition, which is where Curry and Klay do most of their damage.
I truly don’t see a way for the Grizzlies to even keep a game close, let alone win one. And as mentioned before, this Warriors team never takes a game off.