Second, because my rankings have almost nothing to do with who I think will win the Western Conference.

Confused by that?  Well, that’s a product of the NBA’s insane scheduling as well.  Due to the huge numbers of games shoe-horned into a compressed time period (Back to back to backs, anyone?), I think this will be one of those years where the veteran teams give just the minimum amount of effort needed to scrape into the playoffs.  The young up-and-coming teams are the ones to bet on during the regular season:  Bulls, Thunder, Grizzlies, Blazers.  Blazers?  More on that below.

1) Thunder:  Intact, young, fresh-legged.  Could easily have the best record in the West.  That doesn’t mean they’ll represent the West in the Finals.

2) Grizzlies: #2 in the West?  What have I been smoking?  Well, they’re young and deep.  They got a huge amount of confidence from their playoff run last year. And they didn’t have Rudy Gay for that.

3) Trailblazers: My buzz has apparently not yet worn off.  More than any team in the league, the Blazers have remade themselves this year. Gone are Brandon Roy and Andre Miller, two players who contributed to the slowest pace in the league in prior seasons.  In their place are Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford. Hmm… methinks this uber-athletic Blazers team should start running!  And that’s just what they’re going to do, if the pre-season didn’t lie.  Their record depends a bit on the crumbling knees of Marcus Camby, but I kind of like their backup center: LaMarcus Aldridge. And their “small-ball” unit:  LA, Gerald Wallace, Nic Batum, Wesley Mathews, Raymond Felton.  With Crawford off the bench.  One of the best in basketball.

4) Spurs:  Ok, back to some sensible picks.  Not a young team by any stretch, but they know how to win.  Second best record in the West last year.  Swapping George Hill for TJ Ford indicates they’re committed to running.  What are the odds of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker all remaining healthy? 100-1?  Those are roughly the same odds of the Spurs winning the West.

5) Mavs:  The Mavs may struggle this year without Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea. But not for the reasons people may think.  It’s because of pace. The Mavs were at their best last year when pushing the pace, getting early offense. Brendan Haywood is an underrated defensive center, but he will slow down the Mavs attack. Roddy Beaubois is every bit as fast as Barea, but far less accomplished.  The Mavs may struggle this year with the adjustment.

On the other hand, Lamar Odom may help them through that adjustment just fine.  One of the smartest players in the league, as well as one of the most versatile, Odom could allow the Mavs to go to a small ball frontline of himself and Nowitzki.  Pace returns.

But this is all before getting to the age of their roster.  Has to be the oldest in the league, right?  I predict the Mavs take most of the regular season off. I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see them slip into the playoffs as the eighth seed.  OK, that might be a stretch.  But all they need is a toehold.

6) Clippers: One of the best starting fives in basketball, on paper.  But also one of the most oddly constructed teams in history.  Two second-year guys in the front court.  Two ancient warriors on the wings.  Ever seen a good team built like that before? The Clips are also paper-thin. Who backs up Jordan and Griffin?  Only Gomes behind Butler.  Foye and Mo Williams behind Billups and Paul.  The Clips look set for their first playoff run in ages… if their ages don’t catch up with them.

7) Lakers:  There are so many things wrong with the Lakers this year, it’s tough to count them all.  Their chemistry is dead. They’re selling out trying to trade Bynum and Gasol for Dwight Howard.  Their most important bench player, Lamar Odom, was given away for nothing.  But even before that, they had big problems: Pau Gasol hates Kobe Bryant’s guts. They have a horrible coach. They have a new system that requires a point guard, but guess what, they don’t have a point guard.  The compressed schedule will be hell on all of their core players, including their youngest, Bynum.  Speaking of Bynum, he’s suspended for the first 5 games of the season.

The Lakers as we know them appear cooked.  It remains to be seen whether they’ll be blown up during the season, or after.  Either way, I think they’ll just scrape into the playoffs, at best.

8) Denver:  Everyone is really high on Denver, but I’m not sure why. Who is their starting power forward, Al Harrington? Nene, Harrington, Gallinari, Afflalo, Lawson.  Is that a better starting five than the Warriors have?  I would strongly dispute that.

I don’t think most commentators understand just how much the Nuggets are going to miss Wilson Chandler.  He was their best defender by far, able to guard anyone from shooting guards to power forwards.  And despite his miserable playoff performance, he’s a dangerous offensive player as well. Shoots the three, great dribble-drive, terrific finisher.

Chandler is stuck in China until the end of their season sometime in February.  I wonder what will happen then…  he’ll be a midseason free-agent.  Can only teams that are under the cap sign him?  If I were Joe Lacob, I would do just about anything to get Chandler under contract.  He could absolutely transform this Warriors team.

So why do I have Denver ranked above the Warriors?  Three reasons:

1) They have a better coach.

2) They have a veteran bench, something the Warriors sorely lack.  Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez, Chris Anderson. And they have this Mozgov character, who unlike Kwame Brown can actually put the ball in the basket and block shots. Maybe he’ll do something as well.

3) They have spread-fours (Harrington, Gallinari) to complement Nene’s game, and give the Nuggets a formidable small-ball unit.  Something Joe Lacob apparently doesn’t believe in, and the Warriors will apparently never again have. Like Denver, Joe Lacob has an all-star center to build around. But unlike Denver, Lacob doesn’t understand what he has in David Lee, nor how to build around him.

Either that, or he plans to blow this Warriors team up.  Which is the subject of my next post.

The Rest of the Story:

Remarkably, of the rest of the teams in the West, I think the Warriors are the only team with a chance to compete for the eighth seed this year.  I’ll analyze the Warriors chances in a later post.  In no particular order, here’s my quick take on the rest of the West:

Suns: I recognize all the players, but can’t begin to imagine how they will play together. Is Shannon Brown their starting two? Alvin Gentry and Steve Nash’s greatest challenge to date.

Hornets: Massive suckitude.

TWolves:  The most intriguing young team to watch in the NBA this season.  Why?  You think I’m going to say Ricky Rubio, don’t you? Wrong. It’s Rick Adelman. The TWolves are loaded with young talent, and Adelman is the first TWolves coach in ages who will know how to put them together.  The coach the Warriors should have hired, if they were serious about winning now.

Rockets: This is the year that Daryl Morey falls to earth. Hard. He’s about to learn the difference between Rick Adelman and Kevin McHale.

Jazz: I’m not even the slightest bit curious about this team. A frontline of Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap, combined with Devin Harris at the point, is all I need to know.

Kings:  Another intriguing team, now that they seem committed to taking the ball out of Tyreke Evans’ hands.  That seems to me to be the message of drafting Jimmer and Isaiah Thomas, and signing Marcus Thornton to a big deal.  I really like their coach, Paul Westphal, but he’ll  have his hands full with this crew. DeMarcus Cousins and Evans already don’t like each other, and Evans ain’t going to be happy with either his reduced role or the coming Jimmer madness.  Fasten your seat belts.

I also like Gladwell’s larger point, that we can see in the NBA owners’ stance a reflection of our current politics and class divisions. Who is waging war on whom?

Thanks to all who have been reporting the “progress” of the talks in the comments to this blog, as I laze through this dreary lockout. Here’s another clean well-lighted thread for your efforts.

– Pink Floyd

I’ve had second thoughts about doing my draft analysis, although I’ve already written it several times in my head.  I think I may just save it until after the lockout ends in a year, so that it will be more available for everyone to analyze and critique as the season begins.

Or perhaps that’s just rationalization, and I’m giving in to my lockout doldrums…

I don’t expect to write much, if anything about the lockout. I don’t expect it to provide much interest, perhaps because I’ve already forecast the result in my mind. Here are my predictions, colored by what I learned practicing my previous twin disciplines of the law and the markets:

1) The lockout will end as these things always end, with the stronger party (the owners) prevailing. The NBA is a virtual monopoly, and there is no place for labor to escape (Europe and the other leagues have little room, and less money).

2) The players will capitulate to the owners’ demands at the very moment that the most expansionary world economy in history kicks into high gear.

I will of course continue sniping and carping in the comments section, and enjoying whatever conversation ensues in this, the summer, fall and winter of our discontent.

And stabbed in the back by Joe Lacob.

Unless you are a Warriors fan, the NBA trade deadline didn’t disappoint. A lot of fascinating deals went down. Jump for my complete analysis, including playoff predictions, fantasy basketball ramifications, and for you fellow degenerates out there, betting opportunities.                                     

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Let’s start with the Western Conference, where events have unfortunately all but destroyed the Warriors’ playoff chances.  And if we’re starting with the West, we have to start with the Melo trade.

Nuggets: Has a team that has been put under the gun by a player ever made a better deal for themselves?  Far from blowing themselves up, which is what would have happened if they’d taken New Jersey’s offer of Derrick Favors and multiple draft picks, it is quite possible that Denver actually became a better team in ridding themselves of Melo.  You think that’s a ludicrous opinion? Well, I share it with Phil Jackson.

Here’s what you’re going to see in Denver:  NELLIEBALL.  George Karl is an expert and fervent practitioner of the art, who only reluctantly gave it up when faced with the reality of Chauncey Billups at point guard, and the mid-post, ball-pounding game of Melo.  That’s over now.  The Denver Nuggets are going to run, and they are going to pass.  Here’s George Karl on the subject of playing Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton in the same backcourt:

“We’ve got to have more passing in our game than shooting,” Karl said. “And now, if I have to play two point guards who can each get nine assists each night, I think that’s enough passing.”

Do you hear the GOOD RIDDANCE! to Carmelo Anthony in that statement? And do you think the great George Karl fears playing two point guards at the same time?  You think the Warriors have a small backcourt? Well try 6-1″ and 5-11″ on for size.

Of course, Karl also has the players who can protect that backcourt.  Starting with Nene in the middle.  And the great defending small-ball power forwards Kenyon Martin and Wilson Chandler.  And he has what Joe Lacob failed to deliver to the Warriors: two long shooting guards who can spread the floor and defend.  Well, that describes Aaron Afflalo.  We have yet to see what JR Smith can do on defense, when motivated by starting minutes.

Karl also announced that Danilo Gallinari will likely get the starting SF position over Chandler:

“My gut right now is Gallo because he passes the ball,” Karl said. “He has a feel for the game. He has a sense for the game.”

The great George Karl opting for actual basketball skill over defense?  There is an important lesson there for Warriors management.

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of the fastest teams end-to-end in the NBA going forward.  Faster even than the Warriors, because unlike Keith Smart, George Karl knows how to push the tempo, and is unafraid to do it.  They’re going to be one of the best passing, best shooting teams in the NBA.  They’re going to have a small lineup on the floor at ALL times.

And they are going to win.  Scratch one potential playoff spot for the Warriors. The Nuggets are a lock.

(Is my opinion playable? Well, the reaction to the Nuggets side of the trade has been surprisingly positive. I prefer to look for plays where the hype is dead wrong. Such as the hype on the Stephen Jackson trade last year.)

Portland: Shockingly, Portland also didn’t blow up their team, as had been rumored.  Instead, they went out and got unequivocally better.  In a classic ripoff of a poor team by a rich team, the Blazers picked up Gerald Wallace for a couple of meatballs — Joel Pryzbilla and Dante Cunningham — and a couple of first round draft picks.

Take a look at Portland’s small line-up now:  Aldridge at 5, Wallace at 4, Mathews, Batum or possibly Roy on the wings, Miller or Fernandez at point. Can you think of a better?

I’m actually a little bit shocked that Portland created a Nellieball lineup. Will Nate McMillan know what to do with it?  Are the Blazers going to start running?

If Marcus Camby makes it back all the way from his knee surgery, no one will want to meet this team in the playoffs.  Scratch another spot.

Thunder: OKC got worse at the trading deadline.  What, you say?  How could they get worse by picking up Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson from the Celtics for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic, and Nazr Mohammed from Charlotte for a couple of meatballs?  Don’t they have Serge Ibaka to plug in at power forward? (Fantasy players, get Ibaka NOW if he’s still on your waiver wire. I traded Diaw and Roy for him a month ago, anticipating just this eventuality.)

Here’s how the Thunder got worse:  Obviously, this trade will help the Thunder’s defense in the paint.  But the cost to their offense will be unfathomable.  Unlike Krstic, both Perkins and Mohammed are non-shooters.  And although Ibaka has a decent mid-range shot, he can’t spread the floor like Jeff Green.  I predict that this will prove disastrous for a team that already can’t shoot.  Westbrook can’t shoot.  Sefolosha can’t shoot.  Harden can’t shoot, except on holidays and alternating Tuesdays.

Not to mention that what had been a terrific Nellieball lineup just lost their small lineup completely.  Can it be a good thing to slow down the running of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant?

It just got far easier to guard the Thunder. Pack the paint. Deny Westbrook penetration. Double team Durant on every touch.

And another thing: Perkins is a 6-10″ defensive center who relies on his legs for his prowess.  But as those who watched the last Warriors game know, Perkins is coming off an ACL tear, and his game is nowhere near close to what it was. Will he ever again reach that level?  Not this year, certainly.

Unfortunately, the Thunder have a dominating 10 game lead on the Warriors. It is highly doubtful that they slip out of the playoff picture. But if I were a betting man, I would bet them to lose to the spread every game for the next couple of weeks, until the bookies adjust.

Hornets: Made a great move in picking up Carl Landry for Marcus Thornton. Consider this small ball lineup: West at 5, Landry at 4, Ariza, Green and Paul.

Mark Cuban threw a fit that the NBA, which now owns the Hornets, would spend it’s own money and take on additional salary to make this deal happen.  Cuban is full of crap.  When the Hornets make the playoffs, they will more than make up for that money.

What Cuban is so upset about is that the NBA strengthened a division rival. The Hornets, who were faltering lately, now look like a favorite to make the playoffs again.

Phoenix: I already made Phoenix a lock for the playoffs a couple of weeks ago, after getting a look at their new lineup in action.  They are even more of a lock now, after swapping mediocre back-up point guard Goran Dragic for the electrifying Aaron Brooks of Houston.  Wow, what a great deal.

Throw out the pencil.  You can write Phoenix into the playoffs in ink.  And by my count, that’s all the spots there are.

Grizzlies: I wrote off Memphis’ playoff chances a week ago due to the Rudy Gay injury, and their brutal March schedule.  But their deal today, picking up Shane Battier for Hasheem Thabeet and a first round draft pick, shows that they have not given up as a franchise, the way Joe Lacob gave up on the Warriors. They are going to compete.

I don’t like their chances, but their improvement makes it even tougher for the Warriors, who play Memphis twice going forward I believe.

Houston: Oh. my. god. Hasheem Thabeet, seriously?  The Rockets traded away Shane Battier and Aaron Brooks for a backup point guard and a bowlful of bust.

Can we stop the nonsense now about Daryl Morey as a moneyball genius? The Rockets are dead.

Utah: Blew themselves up, quite obviously.  And I think it is highly likely that they will never again reach the playoffs, given their market.  Unless they manage to pick up the next Tim Duncan in some future draft.

Deron Williams for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and a bucket of draft picks. Ughh.  It probably had to be done, but still, ughh. Devin Harris is a ridiculous fit on a team with Al Jefferson.  Harris is a suspect shooter, and miserable when feeding the post.  He needs to run.

Clippers:  I wrote at the time that the Clippers stole Baron Davis from the Warriors with that giant contract that the Clippers had just committed franchise suicide.  Well, it turns out I was wrong.  The Clippers were just shocked gasping back into life, with Dan Gilbert administering the paddles. All it wound up costing them were three lost seasons, and a lottery pick.  And oh yes, a milder form of cancer, commonly known as Mo Williams.

But if the Clips are smart enough to make Eric Bledsoe the starting point guard, and bring Williams off the bench as a sixth man, this is a team back on the rise.

Until the next suicide attempt.

(And yes, I snatched Bledsoe off the waiver wire in my fantasy league when the news hit at midnight. Dropping Gilbert Arenas.)

Kings: Picked up Marcus Thornton for Carl Landry.  Let me get this straight, the Kings essentially traded Kevin Martin for Thornton, right?  There you have it, one more way that Tyreke Evans has destroyed this franchise.

By the way, this trade has major fantasy implications: Samuel Dalembert.

The Warriors: I’ve made you wait, and I’m going to make you wait some more. The kettle has not fully come to a boil. Yet.

First, I’m going to talk Eastern Conference.  If you’re anxious to read about how Joe Lacob intentionally tanked this Warriors season, then feel free to skip ahead.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Knicks: The consensus is that you do anything, trade anything, to acquire a superstar in the NBA.  I’m not so sure. I’ve already given my analysis of Carmelo Anthony as a player in my Don’t Trade Curry piece.  He’s a black hole.  Which means the Knicks now have two of them. Let’s see how that works in D’Antoni’s system.

Three other points:

1) Carmelo is a mid-range player who doesn’t spread the floor. If Amare doesn’t want to play center, which he doesn’t, D’Antoni is going to have a real hard time spreading the floor. He needs a three point shooting, running center. Know any?

2) Speaking of running, the Knicks just got a whole lot slower, with Billups at the point, and Melo pounding the ball on the wings.  How is that going to work for D’Antoni?

3) As the Knicks got slower, their defense got worse. Stoudemire’s defensive deficiencies will be accentuated in a half-court game.

This Knicks team will be decent, and probably quite good eventually.  But I have serious doubts that they can ever click the way D’Antoni will want them to, let alone approach the championship level that they expect.

The hype around this team is enormous right now. If I were a betting man, I would seriously consider betting against this hype. Starting now. Ending when the bookies adjust.

Nets: Brilliant winners of this trading deadline. First, their competition caused the Knicks to screw the pooch.  And second, they picked up Deron Williams for nothing. When a genuine superstar is available, there is no amount of draft picks that should not be spent to get him. Particularly devalued draft picks, that are going to drop in value with every passing year as your team gets better.

Don Nelson, who traded a 7th pick for Steve Nash, and three number ones for Chris Webber, knew this principle like the back of his hand.

Joe Lacob doesn’t.

Celtics: I heard an ESPN analyst killing the Celtics for trading away their “starting” center.  Huh?

First, you need to understand that Kendrick Perkins is no longer Kendrick Perkins.

Second, you need to understand that Nenad Krstic of the Celtics is not Nenad Krstic of the Thunder.  The guy on the Thunder was a poor schlub who played with a selfish and visionless point guard who froze him out mercilessly.

The guy on the Celtics is a good shooter who is playing with Rajon Rondo.

The Celtics didn’t give up much in this trade, assuming they can still plug Shaq back in come playoff time.  But oh, what they added.  They added shooting. They added the ability to spread the floor.  And they added the ability to run.

They added NELLIEBALL.

Take a look at this small-ball lineup: Garnett at 5, Green at 4, Pierce, Allen, Rondo.  Do you think that lineup can get something done?

The Celtics are also likely to add Troy Murphy after the Warriors buy him out. More size. More shooting. More spreading the floor.

And the Celtics dumped Semih Erden and Luke Harongody on the Cavs for a second round pick.  That’s what those two guys are worth, the same two guys whom Keith Smart allowed to beat the Warriors in the last game, by his timid failure to exploit them ruthlessly with a small lineup.

There is a major lesson for Joe Lacob in the Celtics’ moves.  It involves getting non-shooters off your team. Will he absorb it?

Hawks: Just got a whole lot better, picking up Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong for Bibby, Jordan Crawford and a pick.

I had been writing off the Hawks in the East, but they might have an outside chance to pull off an upset now.

(I would tell fantasy owners to go grab Hinrich, but I already told them that, in the preseason.)

Cavs: What could Dan Gilbert be thinking? Yes, he picked up a lottery pick. But at what cost to his team’s morale? And for how many years?

Boom Fizzle imprisoned in Cleveland? Sharing a cell with Byron Scott? As an Ohio boy, who once spent a miserable summer interned at a Cleveland law firm, I can tell you that this is not going to work. This is going to get real ugly, and real fat, real fast.

Insane. Let me tell you, I hated the way The Decision went down, but LeBron James was correct to get as far away from Cleveland as he possibly could. Dan Gilbert is hands-down the worst GM/owner in the NBA. After Mark Cuban.

And now, while we’re on the topic of bad GMs, let’s talk about the guy who tanked the Warriors season.

YOUR GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

This is what Warriors GM Joe Lacob got accomplished at the trading deadline: Brandan Wright and Dan Gadzuric for Troy Murphy’s dying contract and a second round pick.  According to rumor, the Warriors are going to recall Jeff Adrien from the D-league to replace these players.

I don’t have a problem with dumping Brandan Wright. He’s not an NBA player. I find it exceedingly humorous that he’s going to play for Avery Johnson, who shrieks like a banshee when his big men don’t rebound and defend.  Can’t wait to see how that turns out.

I don’t have a  problem with dumping Dan Gadzuric. He’s close to finished, and competely superfluous now, at least until Biedrins goes down with his next injury.

I don’t have any problem at all with picking up Adrien. He not only rebounds and defends, but can shoot the 20 footer as well as a nice jump-hook. And he is not afraid to get to the free throw line, because he makes them.  If Jeff Adrien means that Lou Amundsen never sets foot on the court again, I will throw the Thaiblonde a party.

And I only have a slight problem with Joe Lacob’s stated desire to start accumulating draft picks and “build cheaply.” It’s a completely ass-backwards strategy for a team that is already on the rise, as I mentioned. And it — as well as Lacob’s failure to get a player in return for the Warriors’ expiring contracts — gives the lie to Lacob’s oft-repeated promise to spend whatever it takes to make the Warriors better. But whatever.

What I have a big, burning problem with is that the Warriors are currently competing for a playoff spot, and they have a glaring hole in their roster — which Lacob himself has admitted to recognizing  – that the Warriors management failed to take care of at the trade deadline. They need a big guard who can both defend and shoot threes to protect the Curry/Ellis backcourt.

And you can’t tell me that none were available, as Lacob’s mouthpiece Larry Riley has been intimating in the press.  Just to mention one name, it was widely rumored that Raja Bell was being shopped by the detonating Jazz.  Would he have helped the Warriors this season?  Do you mean to tell me that he wasn’t available for Brandan Wright and expiring contracts?  Baloney.

Outside of Reggie Williams, whose best position is SF, the Warriors guards behind Curry and Ellis are a joke.  Lin, Law, Bell.  No length, not a shooter among them.  That this bench was assembled, and then allowed to last a full season by Joe Lacob is a travesty.

It is a betrayal of the great core of this Warriors team, that has put it on the line this season fighting for the 8 seed.  And it’s a betrayal of Warriors fans.

I have had a growing suspicion about Joe Lacob this season,  that began back at the time Don Nelson was fired, Keith Smart was hired, and Jeremy Lin was signed. It was a depressing suspicion, that I kept to myself while this season played out. I hoped I would be proven wrong.

Unfortunately, I haven’t. And the disappointment of this trading deadline has me ready to give voice to my suspicion. At this point, I don’t see any other conclusion that can reasonably be reached.

I believe that Joe Lacob intentionally tanked this season. I don’t believe he wanted the Warriors to make the playoffs. Not this season.

And he took action to make sure they wouldn’t. It began with the firing of Don Nelson. Because if Don Nelson had been allowed to coach this team into the playoffs this season, Joe Lacob would never have gotten the credit he so deeply craves for turning this franchise around. He wouldn’t have gotten it this season, and he wouldn’t get it in future seasons. The Warriors would have already been a playoff team when he took them over.  The playoff team that Don Nelson assembled.

It continued with the signing of Jeremy Lin, rather than an experienced veteran who could have filled a huge void on the Warriors’ bench.

And then there was Keith Smart.  Putting a rookie coach on the bench looked like the only move open to Lacob at the time, particularly if you buy his unexplained narrative that Nellie was “the wrong guy to coach this team.”  But putting Smart on the bench was also a nicely convenient move if Lacob wanted to remake the franchise in his own image, as he has so frequently insinuated. One year of a caretaker coach, and then fully erase “the sins of the past” by hiring a big name coach that Lacob could take credit for.

What happens to this plan if the Warriors make the playoffs?  It wouldn’t be quite so easy to get rid of Keith Smart if that happened, would it?

And now this, several long months and the passing of the trading deadline with not one bit of help for the Warriors’ laughable bench. With the Warriors a mere 3 games in the loss column out of the 8 seed, they desperately needed Joe Lacob to have their back.  To do something to give them a boost, tilt the game in their favor, the way Giants management did for the Giants in their championship season. But what did the Warriors get? Bupkus. A stinging slap in the face.

Congratulations, Joe Lacob. NBA laughingstock Michael Heisley did more for his team than you did.  The NBA did more for the team that they hold in receivership than you did. You, Joe, knifed your players and your fans in the back.

Hey, but the Warriors got a second round draft pick!  Which brings me to the final reason I believe Joe Lacob tanked this season.  We all know that Joe Lacob covets draft picks. He’s said so, publicly and repeatedly. But why, with a team that already possesses a playoff core? I think we can surmise the reason. It’s because those picks will be his to play with.  His to erase the sins of the past with. His to put his name to. His to take credit for.

The Warriors have a first round pick in 2011.  Joe Lacob wants it to be a lottery pick.

It wasn’t the “sins of the past” that prevented the Warriors from making a playoff run this season.  It was the sins of the present.

What’s left for faithful Warriors fans is to hope for a finish straight out of the movies. To be specific, straight out of Major League.

As for the Warriors, it seems funny that they are going off 3 games worse than they were last season, doesn’t it?  It’s hard to name the actual reason why that might be, given the addition of David Lee, but the initials of the reason are probably KS.  The coaching change and the thinness of the Warriors bench, in particular at center and power forward and point guard (are those important positions?) are the only reasons not to like the over on the Warriors.  Their starting 5 is playoff caliber. And we’re being offered quite a discount to believe something good might happen this year. Keith Smart figuring it out, a good trade, whatever.

I’m betting a decent amount on the Warriors over, and a much smaller bet, for fun, on the Wizards under.

The only other line I saw that I had an opinion on was the Cavs at 30.5 (over -105, under -125).  The same win total as the Warriors?  That’s insulting!  I like under, but didn’t bet.

And by the way, the team is only keeping one true center — Tyson Chandler — which of course has John Hollinger squawking.  Coach K is giving looks at the 5 to Lamar Odom and Kevin Love, and plans to play Granger, Iggy and Durant at the 4.

In other words, if the USA carries away the World Championship this year, they will do it playing Nellieball.

In the proposed deal, the Houston Rockets will send Ariza to the Hornets, who in turn will send Collison and James Posey to the Pacers. The Pacers will send Troy Murphy to the New Jersey Nets. And the Nets will send Courtney Lee to the Rockets.

Here are my thoughts on these deals as they potentially impact the Warriors’ quest to fill out their roster:

1) The Pacers now have their point guard, which is possibly disastrous to my dreams of landing Granger for Monta.

2) On the other hand, the Pacers now have James Posey as well, who is nothing but a small forward, to add to Granger, Paul George, Mike Dunleavey and Dahntay Jones at the big wing position.  Surely something has to give here, just as something has to give with the Warriors’ five small guards.

3) The Pistons signing McGrady makes it virtually certain in my mind that Tayshaun Prince will be moved for expirings.  This signing makes sense only as a one-year rental that allows the Pistons to dump salary.  While still filling the seats.

From McGrady’s perspective, this is a one year audition to show he can still play.  No way he stays with the Pistons, he wants to play for a contender.

4) Interesting that the Rockets have given up on Ariza after one year.  He failed as a go-to guy, and they picked up  Kevin Martin to fill that role last year.  I don’t expect Courtney Lee to make much of an impact with them. Like the Pistons, the Rockets are dumping salary.  I think the Brad Miller signing — which they were forced into by Yao Ming’s injury, which according to rumor is slow to heal and may never heal —  left them over budget.  As for the wing position, Shane Battier can fill it ably.

5) As for the Nets, I find it increasingly amusing that they keep filling the Squeaky General’s roster with former Warriors who can’t play a shred of defense.  I have been speculating about how this self-styled defensive genius would react to watching Anthony Morrow play.  Would he even let him off his bench?  And now Troy Murphy?  Oh God. Can they even play at the same time?

The Nets are going to be spectacularly bad, again.  And the General is going to get even squeakier, if such a thing is even possible.

Chicago                      +2000

Cleveland                  -3000

Would you like a 3.3% return on your money in a one-week investment?  Put everything in your savings on the Cavaliers to win this series.  (That’s a joke, haters!) But a word to the wise: Do NOT bet against Lebron in any playoff series this year.  David Stern badly wants Lebron to win this year, and betting against what David Stern wants is like setting a blowtorch to your money.  Just ask Mark Cuban and Bill Simmons.   No Bet.

Milwaukee                 +550

Atlanta                          -800

Won’t be very interesting with Bogut out.  Except for this:  I’m really looking forward to watching the Jennings/Crawford matchup.  Ole!    No Bet.

Miami                             +160

Boston                            -180

Can you believe the price of this series?  Obviously, it reflects the poor health of the Celtics, Garnett and Pierce in particular.  It also reflects their poor play down the stretch: the Celtics were 3-7 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) down the stretch.  Miami, on the other hand, is red hot:  they finished 12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS.  But still…

The Celtics swept the Heat 3-0 (2-1 ATS) in the regular season.  Its really hard to imagine the Heat getting anything at all inside against Perkins, Garnett and Wallace.  Can Dwyane Wade once again do everything by himself?  Rajon Rondo might have something to say about that.

OK, I talked myself into it.  I just bet the gimpy, run-down, collapsing Celtics to win this series at -180.  Does this mean I have to root for them?

Charlotte                      +700

Orlando                          -1100

These two teams are a lot closer than this series line suggests.  Orlando is 3-1 against Charlotte this year.  But the first Orlando win came before the Jackson trade, and the second came the day after the Jackson trade.  The final two games went like this:  Orlando won in overtime in Charlotte, with Chandler out.  And Charlotte, after picking up Theo Ratliff at the trading deadline, beat the pants off Orlando in Orlando.

Here’s what’s fascinating about this series:  Larry Brown now has three big centers to throw at Dwight Howard.  Theo Ratliff, Tyson Chandler and Nazr Mohammed.   Tyrus Thomas and Boris Diaw held Rashard Lewis to 1-7 in the last game.  Gerald Wallace against Matt Barnes: gonna be fireworks.

And then there’s Stephen Jackson against Vince Carter.  Ooh baby, I can’t wait to watch this.  Jackson haters, open your eyes and watch the man in action on the big stage.  There are few better.

With this caveat:  Jackson finished the season incredibly beat up, including a extremely painful sprained finger ligament that hampered his shooting.  If Jackson can’t shoot, the offensively challenged Bobcats will be in real trouble.  Their shooting woes got worse in the trade that brought Thomas: they gave up their sixth man, Flip Murray.  Now their sixth man is DJ Augustin, who’s had a terrible season.  He will need to show up.

Can the Bobcats win?  I might bet $50 at 7-1 for fun.  But I will be looking to bet serious amounts on ridiculous game lines.  Like that 8 point opening spread.

Utah                                   +160

Denver                             -180

This is a somewhat intriguing series to me.  Denver pwned Utah during the regular season, at 3-1 SU and 2-0-2 ATS.  Nene and KMart were very effective at holding off Boozer, and allowing Denver’s speed and shooting advantages to take control.

But can Denver hold off Boozer without KMart?  I think KMart will play, but how good can he be on a gimpy leg after such a layoff? On the other hand, Boozer has his own injury issues (oblique), as do Okur and Kirilenko.

Wildcards:  1) Ty Lawson:  Utah struggles against speed, and Lawson torched them this season.  Can the rookie step up in the playoffs? 2) Wes Mathews:  The Jazz have an impressive rookie of their own.  Sloan will try him as a defender on Carmelo.

Injuries throw some doubt on the outcome.  But by default, I think you have to take the team with the superstar, and the track record.  That be Carmelo, and the Denver Nuggets.  No Bet.

OKC                                      +550

Lakers                                 -800

This will be a fun series to watch, for a couple of reasons, but not because the outcome is in doubt.  The Lakers are just way too dominant on the front line to lose this series.  And then there’s that Kobe feller.

OKC needs to get out and run.  Their biggest advantage on the floor is Westbrook on Fisher.  Westbrook has the opportunity to make his name, to become a star, going against the decrepit Fisher.  Can he do it?

The problem with OKC is that they can run but they can’t gun.  Westbrook, Sefolosha and Harden are all suspect from outside, which will allow the Lakers to focus their defense on Durant.

Something fun:  Durant in the playoffs!  Artest on Durant going to be fascinating. Is Phil Jackson clever enough to guard Durant with Kobe, like Don Nelson would?  No, Phil Jackson is not that clever.  On the other hand, he doesn’t have to be.

Something not so fun:  Watching Kobe freeze Pau Gasol out in crunch time.  No Bet.

San Antonio                   +140

Dallas                                   -160

This is an incredibly difficult series to forecast, particularly because Dallas only became a contender at mid-season, with the blockbuster trade that brought them Butler, Haywood and Stevenson.  Then throw in the fact that the Spurs are throwing Tony Parker into the fire after a huge layoff, and George Hill is playing on a bad ankle; and for the Mavericks, Marion is coming back from a layoff and I don’t believe he’s fully healthy.

Both teams can play as big as you like, but should they?  Both Popovich and Carlisle are matchup wizards, and I could easily see both of them racing to get small, since neither team has an edge in the middle.  Can Eric Dampier outplay Antonio McDyess or DeJuan Blair?  Can Haywood?

Duncan, Jefferson, Ginobili, Hill, Parker v. Nowitzki, Marion, Butler, Terry, Kidd.  Which small ball unit do you like?  Exactly.  It’s going to be fun.  No Bet.

Portland                                +450

Phoenix                                 -650

I won’t be betting this series, but I seriously wonder if Portland can’t shock the world against Phoenix.  This line reflects the loss of Roy, a hugely important player, no doubt.  But Portland already has played without him this season, and played well.  They have some incredibly talented wing players in Webster and Batum to step into the breach.  Will JRich be able to get anything done against Batum?

But the real reason I think Portland is being taken lightly is Marcus Camby, who was a late-season addition to their team.  Camby is one of the great playoff centers in the league, and he has been playing like a monster as of late.  I think he could give Stoudemire fits.

At the point, Nash is great, of course, but he will have plenty of problems trying to guard Andre Miller.  Remember Miller taking Curry and Morrow to the rack like a rodeo bull?  It’s gonna be just like that.

And then there’s that Rose Garden.  Hmmm.  No Bet on the series, but I will be watching the game lines of this series closely for opportunities.

Jump for my last Mavs bet update:

Mavs bet update: I don’t have time to go back and add up the games since I started this coverage, but here’s a summary from SBRForum.com:  The Mavs have won 10 straight games, and are either 5-4-1 or 5-3-2 against the spread in that span.  I think it’s the latter because I pushed a game before I left for vacation.

I would classify this Mavs bet so far as a very good play, that only achieved a marginal return.  A few complicating factors occurred:  Butler missed a few games at the beginning of the bet, and Hayward, who had been playing great since the trade, as well as Terry have missed the last few games.  Terry will continue to be out for a few weeks.

During this 10 game winning streak, the Mavs covered all of their away games, but had a losing record against the spread at home.  Most of those home games had quite big spreads of 8 points or more.  I have not checked those spreads to see if they were reasonable, so I’m not sure what to make of that.  But this is a very old team, that has been playing short handed, so perhaps they have been conserving energy when playing with the lead. Or perhaps those home lines were out of whack.  Or perhaps Mavs bettors simply got unlucky. One thing seems clear: the Mavs are a greatly improved team since the trade, and could prove to be a serious threat in the playoffs.

Tomorrow they are playing the TWolves in Minnesota, giving up 6 1/2 points. This is a very reasonable line, as the Mavs have recently been giving up 8 or more in Minnesota, and covering.  But muddying the picture is that the Mavs are playing very shorthanded right now, with both of their centers out as well as Terry.  And Minnesota played them tough in Dallas last week, losing by only three.

So I won’t be betting them tomorrow, and am calling off this play.  Confusing injury factors have entered the mix, and I’m not sure whether any edge remains.  It doesn’t help that I haven’t been able to follow the last several games, or check the lines.  I don’t like to bet unless I can clearly define my edge, and I don’t feel like I can do that right now.

Feel free to continue the discussion here as you see fit.  Perhaps some of you guys can recap the interesting stuff for me.  One thing that will be very interesting to watch is just how Biedrins reacts to being called out by Nellie.  I like Biedrins, and know from observing his play over the last several years that he has a great deal of competitive pride.  On the other hand, he has a very considerable psychological block against going to the free throw line right now. Which way will it go?

Mavs bet update: Dallas was a -2 home favorite against the Lakers tonight. I had some trepidation about that line, but after I researched it (I use the excellent matchup reports at SBRForum.com) my concerns eased.  The line was quite reasonable by recent historical standards. The bookies have not yet moved their lines in reaction to the trade, and so I placed my bet on the Mavs.

Then I found out right before tipoff that Caron Butler wasn’t playing. A reaction to some medicine he took. Aaaaargh!

No more small ball.

I needn’t have been concerned, though, because the Mavs still wound up covering, winning 101-96.  I’m guarded about reading too much into this game. Yes it was in Dallas, Yes the Lakers were on a back to back road game, Yes Kobe is not yet completely right after an extended layoff.  But still I noticed a couple of things that should greatly concern Laker fans. The first is that Brendan Haywood contained Andrew Bynum, and Dallas outrebounded the Lakers by 5. This Dallas team is HUGE, every bit as big and a lot more physical than the Lakers.  And they will get even bigger when Butler plays off-guard at 6-7″, and Eric Dampier returns.

Unlike Nellie and the We Believe Warriors, the Lakers won’t be able to punish the lumbering size of the Mavs by running, because Phil Jackson doesn’t believe in running.  If Phil Jackson let Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar run, then he would no longer be Big Chief Triangle. Capisce?

Conference finals preview?

The second eye-opener for me in this game was Shawn Marion’s defense on Kobe.  It was unbelievable.  Marion simply would not let Kobe get around him, and his length and jumping ability clearly bothered Kobe’s shot.  Kobe shot 9-23 in the game, and only 2-6 in the fourth quarter.  Remember how much Paul Pierce bothered Kobe in the finals?  Well, Shawn Marion, even at this stage of his career, is Paul Pierce times two on defense.

I didn’t consider this possibility, that Marion would guard Kobe, after the Butler trade.  I knew that Butler was a great defender with size, and automatically assumed he would be taking Kobe.  But now it is apparent to me that Dallas has TWO players who can make life tough for Kobe.

Combine this with the Mavs huge size, and their superior point guard play, and you have a very interesting situation developing in the West.  The plot has gotten much, much thicker.

The Mavs are now 4-0 straight up, and 2-1-1 against the spread since I began the Mavs bet. (The tie came in the Indiana game, when the Mavs gave up 10 points of a 19 point lead in the final three minutes to win by only 9.)  So it’s safe to say that I still like this bet, and would be looking to continue it if I weren’t going on vacation.  So long as I satisfied myself that the bookies had not adjusted. The bookies will eventually adjust to the new strength of the Mavs, and I always stop my plays the moment that happens.

I will of course not be betting the Mavs while in Mexico, nor researching the lines for you, so if you have been inclined to follow me on this, make sure you do your research on every game.

Adios muchachos!