Category Archives: NBA Playoffs

Lakers  -360

Suns     +270

I’ve been betting against my heart and against the Suns every series so far this playoffs.  This series will be no different. I absolutely love Steve Nash — I watched virtually every one of his games with the Mavericks.  I love Alvin Gentry, the Suns coach.  I love Suns basketball, which is the closest you can get to Don Nelson basketball without having Nellie himself.  I was very impressed by how the Suns picked apart the Spurs in the last series.

But I don’t see any way they can beat the Lakers.  Here are the problems:

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I’ve taken the Spurs in this series, +120.  That’s not a great price for the team that doesn’t have home court.  But I think it’s a good bet, regardless.  Home court doesn’t mean diddly to this uber-experienced, uber-tough Spurs team. As their round one humiliation of the Mavericks showed.     Continue reading →

The line in this series is -500 Lakers +350 Jazz.  I don’t like to bet 5-1 favorites, and won’t, but I think this line is actually too low.  What are the odds of Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol suffering a major injury?  Those are the true odds for the Jazz to win this series.

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I made one series bet in the first round one:  Celtics -180 over the Heat.  This line was a gift from the gods, and possibly Bill Simmons.  I wonder if his negative opinion of his favorite team moved the line at all.  The Heat had no chance to win this series, and it should have gone off at 7-1 or better. Probably the best series line I’ve seen since Celtics +170 against the Lakers in the finals.

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Magic v. Bobcats

When the favored team is up 3-0 and on the road in game 4, they typically suffer a let down and allow the underdog to capture a game (see Celtics v. Heat).  After game 1, this is the best opportunity you will get to bet the Bobcats if you believe in them.  They are +4 at home, in a close-out game.   Continue reading →