Category Archives: Predictions

You may remember that I bet on the Celtics in this series.  I still believe that they are the best team, but I am a little bit concerned about the injury problems that have surfaced in the last few games.  Big Baby Davis has been an important piece in the battle to contain Dwight Howard; he is concussed and down a few teeth, and may not be available.  Likewise Rasheed Wallace; he is a great player who has really stepped up his play, but he is now suffering severe back spasms. Kevin Garnett has slowed noticably; the knee that has bothered him all season may be on the verge of giving out.  And perhaps most importantly, Rajon Rondo has been slowed as well by back spasms.  Given these inherently unpredictable factors, I think prudence is the order of the day.

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I’ve posted this piece on Golden State of Mind.

Lakers  -360

Suns     +270

I’ve been betting against my heart and against the Suns every series so far this playoffs.  This series will be no different. I absolutely love Steve Nash — I watched virtually every one of his games with the Mavericks.  I love Alvin Gentry, the Suns coach.  I love Suns basketball, which is the closest you can get to Don Nelson basketball without having Nellie himself.  I was very impressed by how the Suns picked apart the Spurs in the last series.

But I don’t see any way they can beat the Lakers.  Here are the problems:

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I’ve taken the Spurs in this series, +120.  That’s not a great price for the team that doesn’t have home court.  But I think it’s a good bet, regardless.  Home court doesn’t mean diddly to this uber-experienced, uber-tough Spurs team. As their round one humiliation of the Mavericks showed.     Continue reading →

The line in this series is -500 Lakers +350 Jazz.  I don’t like to bet 5-1 favorites, and won’t, but I think this line is actually too low.  What are the odds of Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol suffering a major injury?  Those are the true odds for the Jazz to win this series.

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I made one series bet in the first round one:  Celtics -180 over the Heat.  This line was a gift from the gods, and possibly Bill Simmons.  I wonder if his negative opinion of his favorite team moved the line at all.  The Heat had no chance to win this series, and it should have gone off at 7-1 or better. Probably the best series line I’ve seen since Celtics +170 against the Lakers in the finals.

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Magic v. Bobcats

When the favored team is up 3-0 and on the road in game 4, they typically suffer a let down and allow the underdog to capture a game (see Celtics v. Heat).  After game 1, this is the best opportunity you will get to bet the Bobcats if you believe in them.  They are +4 at home, in a close-out game.   Continue reading →