This is a very odd year in the NBA. I cannot recall a season where so many important players were fighting through injury coming into the playoffs: Kobe, Bynum, KMart, Parker, Hill, Marion, Kirilenko, Okur, Shaq, Garnett, Pierce, Jackson, Noah. Needless to say, it makes it extremely difficult to evaluate even otherwise mundane series. But here we go:
Would you like a 3.3% return on your money in a one-week investment? Put everything in your savings on the Cavaliers to win this series. (That’s a joke, haters!) But a word to the wise: Do NOT bet against Lebron in any playoff series this year. David Stern badly wants Lebron to win this year, and betting against what David Stern wants is like setting a blowtorch to your money. Just ask Mark Cuban and Bill Simmons. No Bet.
Well, after getting back from vacation yesterday, I had one day to qualify for the 10k World Poker Tour in San Jose, and managed to win my first satellite. So I’ll be extending my break from blogging for at least another day (and hopefully several more!) to play in this tournament. If you want to follow my progress, I’ll be posting updates on Twitter on my feltbot account.
Jump for my last Mavs bet update:
Yes, just as things are once again getting heated in Warriors land with Biedrins-gate, feltbot is off to the Mexican riviera for a much needed stint of Warriors rehab. I’ll be gone 10 days, missing the next 6 games, including the brutal 4 road games in 5 nights stretch next week. It’s probably just as well. My Lagavulin bill has been killing me.
Dallas Mavericks: The biggest winners, by far, of the trade deadline were the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs dumped the contracts of Josh Howard and Drew Gooden on the Wizards in return for two very good players, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood.
In Butler, the Mavs finally have something they have been lacking for the last two years: a legitimate two-guard with size. Butler is great on both sides of the ball. At 6-7 he has the potential to be a stopper at the two, like Stephen Jackson. In fact, having Butler and Marion at the wings could be every bit as effective for Dallas as having Jackson and Wallace at the wings is for Charlotte. If you don’t think that’s effective, check out the latest whipping Charlotte put on Lebron and company.
The Charlotte Bobcats blew out the Wizards in Washington in their last game 92-76. Nick Young, the Wizards promising young shooting guard, had averaged 20 pts. in his previous two games. Jackson got him out of the game quickly, by posting him up and drawing two quick fouls. Young finished 4-11 for 10 pts. The Bobcats now have a four game winning streak, that includes a win against the Cavs. They are now 6-1 ATS since the Jackson trade, 5-1 ATS since I began the Bobcats Bet.
Monta vs. Kobe! The Lakers invade the Oracle tonight. We’re hoping that the newly super-charged Warriors can get an upset win, but let’s be real, all eyes will be focused on the battle of one-named wonders. Can Monta do to Kobe what he did to Brandon Roy?
Posted in Pre-Game Jitters, Predictions, Previews, Wagers
Tagged Charlotte Bobcats, Devean George, Don Nelson, Golden State Warriors, Kobe, Lakers, Monta Ellis, Rony Turiaf, stephen jackson
I do not bet regular season NBA games (nor any regular season games in any sport) as a rule. The bookies simply have too much edge against a non-professional like myself. What I like to bet are futures bets, preseason win totals, and playoff series. There is frequently a lot of edge in those bets, and my poor results so far this year notwithstanding, I generally do pretty well with them.
On rare occasions, however, when situations arise that I believe cause bookies to fall behind the curve, I will bet regular season games. Such a situation occurred two seasons ago, when the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol in midseason. I bet the Lakers to win the championship the next day at 10-1 ( a bet I was able to lay off at +170 on the Celtics in the finals). And I bet the Lakers to cover in every game for a period of about two weeks after the trade. The Lakers won their next ten games, I believe, and covered enough to make me a profit.
I pulled the trigger on two more pre-season bets today, betting the Lakers to win more than 61.5 games, and the Spurs to win more than 54.5. I expect the Lakers to win 70, and the Spurs 60 if they remain reasonably healthy. The Celtics were a little more difficult to bet, with a line of 56.5, but I probably could have bet them as well. With the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels they simply cannot be challenged in the East. Continue reading
Opening night! I watched the TNT doubleheader.
Celtics 95 Cavs 89: The Cavs had their hearts ripped from their chests and eaten raw in front of their homecourt fans on opening night. Now they have to play another 81 games with the certain knowledge that they are going nowhere this year. The Celtics own the East. Continue reading
Today brings the sad news that Blake Griffin has fractured his kneecap and will miss at least 6 weeks. This obviously will greatly affect the poor Clippers’ chance of making the playoffs. And even more obviously, saves me from making my bet on the Clippers win total. My heart bleeds for Ralph Lawlor, Bill Simmons, and Clippers fans everywhere.
On the other hand, this is a positive development for the Warriors, and my wallet. It makes that eighth seed a little easier to get to. And it makes the Warriors Bet a little easier to win.
And one other thing: We now have the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year.