Category Archives: Wagers

Grading Feltbot’s 2013-14 Western Conference Forecast

Before every season, I like to peruse the Vegas NBA win-total lines, with an eye towards picking up lost money in search of a home. Let’s see how I did this season, when I gave you this Western Conference forecast, Part One and Part Two:    Continue reading

Best in the West: Feltbot’s 2013-14 Western Conference Forecast — Part One

Anyone who tells you they know exactly how the West is going to shake out this season is deluded. This is probably the most wide open the top of the West has been in over 20 years. I give 5 different teams a legitimate chance (10% or better) to finish with the best record. It’s Open Season.

So when I tell you my pick for the top team in the West, you should understand that I’m only giving that team about a 20-25% chance of actually finishing on top. That just happens to be a higher percentage than I’m assigning any of the others.

What might be more interesting to you are my picks against the Vegas Win-Total lines. I’ve had a pretty good record with these historically, including last year, when I went 5-1. These lines are among the very few all year that the Vegas bookies can get egregiously wrong. Mainly because the preseason enthusiasms of the fans can have an outsized effect on them, but also because of the difficulty the experts have in forecasting the effects of new rosters and new coaches.

In reverse order (because, drama), here are my picks for the top 6 seeds in the West:  Continue reading

Grading Feltbot’s Western Conference Forecast

Other NBA bloggers blog their opinions. Blog, blog, blog.

Feltbot too blogs his opinions. But then, unlike any other NBA blogger he knows, he pulls out his wallet and backs his opinions up with cold, hard cashish. While telling you, gentle reader, exactly what he’s betting. Continue reading

The Las Vegas Verdict on Joe Lacob’s 2012 Golden State Warriors

The early line on the 2012 NBA win totals just came out.  I think they speak for themselves regarding the “changes” that Joe Lacob has brought to the Warriors.                  Continue reading

Out-Coached: Mavs 95 Heat 93 — NBA Finals Game 2 Recap

Just finished watching the game for the second time.  I watched it the first time out of the corner of my eye from my seat at the 5-10 no limit poker table at Lucky Chances…  and quite predictably, my own play suffered greatly in crunch time.

To me this game highlighted the biggest edge that Dallas has over Miami: at Head Coach. Carlisle is an absolute genius: the adjustments he made (staggered screens, etc.) to get Nowitzki open against one of the toughest defenses in history were beautiful.  And he does it on the fly, mid-game, which is the hallmark of the elite.                           Continue reading

King James Ascends the Throne: Heat v. Mavericks Preview

I have already predicted that the Miami Heat will win the championship, and as great as the Dallas Mavericks have performed so far in these playoffs, I don’t see any reason to change my mind.  Here are my reasons:              Continue reading

NBA Western Conference Championship Preview: Thunder v. Mavericks

The Mavs looked to have the better of this matchup during the regular season, but all three games were played before the trade that sent Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Celtics for Kendrick Perkins.  So this is an extremely difficult series to handicap.                                           Continue reading

Previews: Grizzlies v. Thunder, Game 7 + Heat v. Bulls, Game 1

Grizzlies v. Thunder, Game 7

This one has played out almost exactly as I believed it would.  The key to game 7 will be the officiating, as Jeff van Gundy slyly hinted in the last game when he said this regarding the Grizzlies’ physical defense of Kevin Durant: “I’m curious to see whether those bumps will be fouls in Oklahoma City.”                      Continue reading

NBA Playoffs Game 3 Previews: Lakers v. Mavs; Thunder v. Grizzlies; Bulls v. Hawks; Heat v. Celtics

Feltbot’s got action in every series in round 2, but after the first two games hit the books, only one series is really making him sweat.  Jump for the 411.

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NBA Playoffs Round 2 Preview: Lakers v. Mavs, Bulls v. Hawks, Celtics v. Heat, Thunder v. Grizzlies

One of the most intriguing NBA playoffs in recent memory didn’t disappoint in the first round.  Shockingly, the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs fell to the #8 Grizzlies.  But I don’t buy into the idea that this means the Grizzlies are now a better team than the Spurs.  Ginobili was playing with one arm, and Tim Duncan was probably only 80% coming off his late season ankle sprain. These sorts of unlucky injuries can mean everything in a playoff series. Remember Lebron on one arm?

The Atlanta Hawks also shocked the Orlando Magic.  Which shows conclusively that how a team plays down the stretch in the regular season means almost nothing.  Was there a worse team than the Hawks in the last month of the season?  I remember the Celtics were also horrible last year in March and April. And of course, the Lakers were 3-7 coming into these playoffs.

Round 2 begins tomorrow, and with it the promise of more intriguing matchups. Jump for the 411.                                                Continue reading