Um, the Warriors are -2.5 FAVORED against the Suns tonight? For those following along, The Warriors Bet is off, and now that I see this line I think it will remain off. Bookies never remain behind the curve for long, and they have had ample time to size up this Warriors squad and review their mistakes. I don’t see any edge in this bet, and will be following Feltbot’s First Law of Sportsbetting: Continue reading
In case you don’t follow Marcus Thompson (or Feltbot) on Twitter, the news is in: Monta Ellis was seen shooting before the game, and is apparently playing against the Knicks. (Nod to rggblog for the heads-up.)
I’ve got news for Warriors fans. This Warriors team is better than the Utah Jazz, and will remain better than the Utah Jazz for the forseeable future. The Warriors played just about as bad an offensive game as they possibly could, and yet dominated this game in every way except on the scoreboard. 52 rebounds to 46. 21 offensive rebounds to 10. The last time it was mentioned, late in the fourth quarter, the Warriors had 24 second chance points to Utah’s 8. But the biggest disparity of all was this: 93 shots to 76 shots. The only reason Utah even stayed in this game was that the Warriors couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean. They finished the game shooting 38%.
This is a new Jazz team, and a new Warriors team. Let’s take a look at how they match up.
It’s silly, I know. A home win against Memphis. But when you’re ready, you’re ready. And I’m ready, four games into the season, to make my call. This Warriors team — picked by virtually all the pundits to finish last or next to last in the Pacific — is going to the playoffs.
This is going to be brief, because I didn’t see much of interest in the pre-season win totals. But I did make a couple of bets, and in the tradition of this blog I want to play my cards face up for my readers. I found it very interesting that the Warriors win total was 30.5 (-130 over [the juice on this bet has now gone up considerably, indicating betting interest on the over]) while the Washington Wizards win total was 32.5 (-130 over, EVEN under). Are the Wizards, led by a rookie, and with the always unpredictable Gilbert Arenas playing a major role, really 2 games better than this Warriors squad, even accounting for the conferences? I’m comfortable wagering a 5th round pick on Arenas to produce stats in fantasy basketball, but it’s quite another thing to wager money on him to produce wins. Continue reading
“You are doing the defense a favor when you post up Lee or Biedrins.” — Mark Jackson
I couldn’t agree with Mark Jackson more. We were told by the commentators to last night’s game that Keith Smart and his staff were raving about David Lee’s “surprising” abilities in the low post. (Surprising to whom? Matt Steinmetz et al? They weren’t surprising to feltbot.) Jackson went on to explain that despite Lee’s talent in the post, he is one of the greatest pick and roll players in the league, and that is how the Warriors should deploy him. I couldn’t agree more, as readers of this blog know.
And yet last night we were treated by Keith Smart to four quarters of watching the Warriors trying to post up Lee and Biedrins in the heart of the Lakers defense. Why? For well over three quarters, Smart ran literally no pick and rolls with Lee that were designed to get him a shot. Instead Andris Biedrins was used almost exclusively to set the high picks, with Lee standing uselessly on the wings waiting for the ball that never came. Why?
Posted in Golden State Warriors, Keith Smart, Player Analysis, Predictions, Recaps, Wagers
Tagged Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, David Lee, Golden State Warriors, Jeremy Lin, Keith Smart, Monta Ellis, Vladimir Radmanovich
I’ve posted this preview on Golden State of Mind.
Two correct calls in the Conference Finals have got me back in the black for these playoffs, although it would have been better if I hadn’t hedged my Celtics bet in the last game. C’est la vie, I think it was the right play, and in sports wagering as well as in poker, all you can do is make the right play. You can’t control that river card.
Now what to do in these Finals? The pundits seem to agree that this time around the Lakers have what it takes to beat the Celtics. They point to the fact that the Lakers have added Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest to the core that faced the Celtics in 2008. They think Pau Gasol is now “tougher,” and that the Lakers now “know what it takes” to win in the finals. They think the Celtics are going to miss a couple of key bench players from the 2008 Finals, Leon Powe and James Posey.
I’m not so sure. Jump for my opinion of the key factors in this series:
You may remember that I bet on the Celtics in this series. I still believe that they are the best team, but I am a little bit concerned about the injury problems that have surfaced in the last few games. Big Baby Davis has been an important piece in the battle to contain Dwight Howard; he is concussed and down a few teeth, and may not be available. Likewise Rasheed Wallace; he is a great player who has really stepped up his play, but he is now suffering severe back spasms. Kevin Garnett has slowed noticably; the knee that has bothered him all season may be on the verge of giving out. And perhaps most importantly, Rajon Rondo has been slowed as well by back spasms. Given these inherently unpredictable factors, I think prudence is the order of the day.