And very quietly, completely unreported by the mainstream media, the face of the NBA game is changing.

Into Nellieball.                

This is the third straight all-Nellieball Finals. The top four teams in the league this season — the Spurs, Heat, Thunder and Nuggets — were all Nellieball teams. The Nuggets lost the ability to play Nellieball when their spectacular stretch-four Gallinari got injured. The Warriors were “forced” into playing Nellieball when their conventional power forward Lee got injured. And the Warriors managed to beat the Nuggets because their Nellieball offense proved absolutely unguardable.

If you still don’t believe that there is a better, easier and cheaper way to win in the playoffs than by constructing the biggest front line, slowing the pace, and engaging in an ugly defensive struggle, then your name must be Joe Lacob.

The best basketball minds in the league are working from Don Nelson’s model.

Game Three: As for this game, I don’t take a whole lot away from it, just as I felt that Game 2 was essentially meaningless. The Heat need to win exactly one game in San Antonio, and until their backs are against the wall, any game that isn’t going their way could cause them to simply shrug their shoulders and give up, as they did last night.

On the other hand, this series is beginning to look a lot the one the Heat lost to the Mavericks, isn’t it? Wade hobbled, the Heat facing a complete and confident Nellieball team, with a genius coach.

I read yesterday that the team that lost Game Three in the Finals lost the series over 92% of the time in the 2-3-2 format. I find that pretty hard to believe — surely a lot of good teams have jumped out 2-0, and given up Game Three on the road? But there it is.

Dwayne Wade: I’ve come to the conclusion that the Heat can’t win this series with Dwayne Wade on the floor. Right now, Wade cannot defend, cannot run the floor, cannot drive and finish, and cannot spread the floor and shoot threes. He is not only the worst player in this series, but the worst two-guard in the entire league.

So why is he playing?

What makes it worse is that the Heat are still catering to him on the floor, trying to “get him going” with mid-range post ups and the like. These plays are not only incredibly inefficient, they are completely ball-stopping and impossible to offensive rebound — they are completely ruinous to the Heat’s offense. (And they happen to be nearly identical to how the Warriors tried to use Harrison Barnes at the three during the season.)

Mario Chalmers: Pop adjusted immediately to the Lebron/Chalmers pick and roll, hedging on Chalmers and stopping his dribble. That’s Pop.

There is one big problem with this pick and roll: the player that switches onto Chalmers is Kawhi Leonard. Another problem is that Chalmers is not a gifted passer.

The Heat need to move this pick and roll to the top of the floor, as opposed to the sideline where they have been running it, to give Chalmers more room to get around Leonard.

Lebron: The Heat need to do two things if they want to get Lebron going. The first is to get Wade off the floor, so that they can spread the floor.

The second is that he’s going to have to be allowed to take what the defense is giving him, which is the outside shot. It’s the best shot the Heat are getting, and he needs to take 30 of them a game. Spoelstra needs to take the leash off and tell Lebron: “Get me 50.”

Tony Parker: I have serious doubts that the Spurs can win this series with Parker hobbled, even if the wretched Wade continues to play. So let’s hope he’s ready to play in Game 4.

Parker’s legs, as well as Duncan and Ginobilis’, are the chief reason I thought Memphis was likely to beat the Spurs in the second round. They’ve had a lot of rest since then, but still this happens. I guess I wasn’t a complete idiot.

I noticed that the Heat were attacking Parker with whomever he was guarding, just as Mark Jackson did. (And just as Lionel Hollins didn’t.)

Gary Neal: I identified Neal as an X-factor in the Spurs series against the Warriors.

Oops, got the series wrong.

Kawhi Leonard: An essential part of Nellieball — and in fact of championship basketball using any model — is having long and dominant defensive wing stoppers, who can also shoot the three. That’s why Don Nelson never drafted a wing player who wasn’t an all-pro defender in the first round. Moncrief, Richmond, Sprewell, Howard. That’s why he pulled Raja Bell, Mario Elie, Kelenna Azubuike and Matt Barnes from the D-Leagues. And that’s why he traded for Stephen Jackson.

Gregg Popovich, who as Jerry West would put it, is from the Don Nelson tree, has followed Don Nelson religiously in this regard. Bruce Bowen, Stephen Jackson (twice), Manu Ginobili, Ime Udoka, Richard Jefferson (oops, traded to Joe Lacob), Danny Green.

And now Kawhi Leonard — who may prove to be the best of the bunch — drafted with the 15th pick in the year Lacob drafted Klay Thompson. Leonard is proving himself to be a championship caliber player. 2-3 from three, 12 rbs, 4 stls, taking primary responsibility to guard the best player on earth, and holding him to 15 pts. on 7-21.

Joe Lacob has now drafted wing players out of the lottery in consecutive years. Neither of whom is a defensive stopper in any way, shape or form — nor ever will be — at the positions they are now playing (Thompson, shooting guard; Barnes, small forward).

Sadly, as much as I love Klay Thompson, I don’t have a lot of faith in this pairing. Nor in Lacob’s model in general. One permanently crippled, non-scoring big man, surrounded by four mediocre defenders. In a non-Nellieball lineup.

That’s not a model for contending. It’s a model for mediocrity.

Vegas Baby!: I’m off to Vegas for some World Series of Poker action the next few days so will not be recapping the next couple of games at least.

I did note a few interesting developments:         

1) I’ve been harping on the need to double team Tony Parker. The Heat took that much more seriously in this game than the last. The result: 13 points on 5-13. As many turnovers as assists: 5.

84 points for the Spurs as a team. 16 TOs, as opposed to 4 the last game.

The Spurs cannot run offense when Parker is doubled. Manu Ginobili is dead, and there is no one else who can initiate.

2) Dwayne Wade is dead too. Danny Green lit him up in the first half, because Wade is now too slow to both fulfill his obligations in the lane, and recover to guard the three. Spoelstra adjusted at half time, putting Lebron on Green, and shifting Wade to Kawhi Leonard. Leonard then immediately lit Wade up, hitting an open three, and overpowering him on a layup And One in the lane.

This is what it’s come to. The once all-world defender has to be hidden on defense. Because of his knee injury, he is the worst defender on the floor. The Heat’s defense improved immediately when Wade left the floor in the third quarter.

He’s also killing the Heat on offense. He’s no longer fast enough to create separation on the fast-break, no longer the finisher he was. And in the half-court, those mid-range jump shots he’s getting are the least efficient offense the Heat can run. He got 0 points in the second half before getting benched.

Can the Heat win on the road with Wade in this condition? I think we can expect him to get weaker as the series progresses.

Is Erik Spoelstra strong enough to bench Wade in crunch time? He may have to be, because it looks to me like the Heat are a better team without him.

3) Mario Chalmers is certainly a much better player without Wade on the floor. Chalmers had a terrific Finals last year, but in the regular season this year, he once again had to play third fiddle to LeBron and Wade, both of whom are ball-dominant.

Chalmers showed in this game that he might be an answer on offense for the Heat. He and Lebron James ran a very efficient pick and roll in the third quarter that led to the Heat’s offensive explosion.

Chalmers’ ability to get into the lane and finish is troublesome for the Spurs. They really struggle against penetrating point guards.

1) The Spurs played Splitter and Duncan together for 13 minutes, at -2. And glorious Nellieball — with Diaw, Bonner or Leonard at the four — for 35 minutes, at +6.

2) The Spurs were outrebounded by 9, and shot a worse percentage than the Heat.

In other words, Joe Lacob has no idea how the hell they won.

3) After a two week layoff, the Spurs turned the ball over only 4 times. In a road game, in the Finals.

It was a direct result of Spoelstra’s flawed defensive game plan.

Or the genius of Gregg Popovich. Take your pick.

Either way, it won’t last. This is one of the strangest box scores I’ve ever had the exquisite pleasure of perusing over my morning Sumatra.

4) As predicted, the Spurs have all but abandoned the offensive boards in favor of getting back on defense. 6 offensive boards in this game.

The Spurs are nothing like the Pacers, and this series won’t resemble the Pacers-Heat series in the slightest.

5) 48 threes were shot in this game. “You live by the three, you die by the three!” Isn’t that what the ignorati were so fond of saying about Don Nelson’s teams?

Don Nelson was right. And before his time.

6) LeBron James was quoted after the game saying “We need a new game plan for Game 2.” My first thought was “Uh Oh.” Poor Erik Spoelstra, will he ever get to coach his own team?

If the Heat lose this series, he may get the chance sooner than we think.

My second thought was: “LeBron’s absolutely right.”

7) I stated before the series that the key to beating the Spurs was getting the ball out of Tony Parker’s hands. The Heat did just that for the first three quarters, but then left him free to operate single covered in the fourth quarter, when he hit for 10 of his 21 points. Why?

The move to get LeBron on Parker? TOO LATE.

8) The Heat didn’t actually blitz Parker, so much as hedge with their mobile big men. They did this because they need their bigs to recover as soon as possible to their own man in the lane. Why? Because the Spurs big men CAN SHOOT if left uncovered. They are two-way players. They are a threat.

Could someone please explain this concept to Joe Lacob and his ex-wife’s trustee? Don’t leave out the part about what it would mean to Stephen Curry to play with a center who can score.

9) Perhaps the biggest way in which the Dwayne Wade injury hurts the Heat is his inability to guard Tony Parker. The blueprint to beating the Spurs is to bottle up Parker with length. But the Heat may have no other option but to keep Chalmers and Cole on him for most of the game. Ray Allen’s not an option, is he? He’s not healthy either.

10) Nevertheless, if they want to win this series, the Heat have to commit to shutting down Parker. Really commit.

They need to pick their poison, and blitz. All four quarters.

And get LeBron on him earlier. Like at the start of the fourth quarter.

11) And if they want to win this series, the Heat need to start attacking the rim. That’s their edge. LeBron going straight at old man Duncan.

Bosh should put the ball on the floor more and attack too. His quickness is his edge. Particularly when he’s gagging on his open shots. Which is just about always.

If the Warriors can make Tim Duncan look old and slow, why can’t the Heat? There’s simply no excuse for the Heat shooting fewer free throws than the Spurs on their home floor.

12) Shane Battier, 6 minutes, 0-3 from three. This guy was a mainstay for the Heat during the regular season, and this should have been the perfect series for him. What happened?

13) Any more thoughts, and this will turn into a recap.

So there will be stretching. 

There will be cross-matching and positionless play.

There will be fast-breaks, and early offense threes.

There will be small ball. Lots of small ball. Both the Spurs and the Heat are going to put their best, most talented players on the floor, regardless of position.

Nellieball.

In other words, Joe Lacob won’t know what the hell is going on.

The Heat are a mere 2-1 favorite. Injuries might have a lot to do with that. Wade is playing on one leg, and Bosh is dinged up. The Spurs are well rested, and the Heat are not.

I’m rooting for Popovich and the Spurs, but give the edge to the Heat (assuming Wade and Bosh make it through the series). I don’t think the Heat will have the same problems rebounding against the Spurs that they had against the Pacers — the older Spurs have largely conceded the offensive glass in favor of getting back on defense. Which means the Heat will have an easier time getting into the open court, where they obviously excel.

And I think the Heat have the tools to make life really hard for Tony Parker. They run the most effective blitz in the league, and should be able to force Parker further away from the basket than he likes, taking away his layups and short midrange jumpers. And the Heat have a secret weapon in reserve for Parker: Lebron James. If this series goes to the wire, I believe Spoelstra will find this obvious answer to stifle the Parker pick and roll. We’ve seen how devastating length in the form of Thabo Sefolosha and even Klay Thompson can be to Parker’s pick and roll. Lebron James can take that to another dimension, as we saw him do against Derrick Rose at the end of that great Heat-Bulls conference championship series. He ate Rose alive.

Unless Manu Ginobili miraculously finds the fountain of youth in this series, the Spurs offense is completely reliant on Parker. No one else can create for them. And that’s their Achilles heel.

Scott Brooks realized this, and swept the Spurs out of the playoffs. Mark Jackson realized this, and gave the Spurs a scare. Lionel Hollins failed to realize this, and allowed Parker free rein to run rampant over the third best defense in the league.

Tony Parker’s facing the best defense in the league now (sorry, statphreaks, it ain’t Indiana). And I think Spoelstra will get it. Either he or Pat Riley.

I’m not sure I even need to recap this game, as the game itself seemed to recap most of this blog’s major themes of this season, and of seasons past. I’ll take a few days to reflect before I decide on the form of my next post.

A word on the upcoming conference finals, in case I don’t post before they start: I don’t think the Spurs will even be competitive against the Grizzlies. I think we all saw what happened to Tim Duncan in this series. I can’t even imagine the price a completely healthy and rested Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will exact from him. And I cringe at the thought of what Mike Conley will do to him in the pick and roll.

Manu Ginobili also appears to be at the end of his effective career. And the still hobbled Tony Parker is running on fumes. In my mind it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that this proud Spurs franchise will get swept.

The best Conference Final will be in the East. The Pacers are built a lot like the Bulls, only better. Dwayne Wade is once again playing on one leg. And the Pacers have a blossoming superstar of their own in two-way small forward Paul George. What he has done defensively to Carmelo Anthony in one on one coverage has been incredible. He should give LeBron James every bit as much trouble as Luol Deng gave him last year.

That series is going to be a war. Playoff basketball at its best.

The two year run of Nellieball NBA champions is about to be put to a severe test. Two superb conventionally-built teams, manned in the middle by two of the best two-way seven-footers in the league, are lined up and ready to take their turns trying to pound the vulnerable Heat to a pulp.

That’s a joke of course. But Bogut and Curry are working on one leg. Manu Ginobili is working on no legs. His legs are so bad that he can’t even hit a free throw. Tim Duncan looked like he turned into an 80 year old man between the first and second quarter. When is the last time you saw him brick a layup, and then airball a 15 footer, on consecutive possessions? Tony Parker took a quarter to get his body working. He said post-game that everything hurt to start the game, his calf, his Achilles, and that, “I felt like I was 50.” Tiago Splitter looks nothing like the player he was during the regular season. He’s maybe 70%.

All of the role players on both teams have been forced to step up. This series looks less like Warriors-Spurs right now than it does a rookie-sophomore game. And the sophomores are winning.

Otherwise, nothing much has changed in the series from the last game. The return of Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup, and Popovich’s defensive adjustment on Stephen Curry (discussed next) have put the Spurs in control. Even if Bogut and Curry get healthy in a hurry for next game, it’s difficult to see what Mark Jackson can do to change the dynamic. He appears out of answers.

Curry: It’s obvious his ankle is a big problem, and Pop is making it worse by attacking him on the defensive end. But I don’t think it’s his only problem. As I noted in my recap of Game 2, Pop found a defense in the second half of that game that worked against Curry, before he injured his ankle. He used Danny Green to guard Curry from the side, rather than in front. Taking away his three point shot completely, and inviting him to drive into a trap. Curry shot 3-11, 0-1 from three, in the second half of Game 2.

I called this defense then a “worrisome development,” and it has proved just that. By my count, Curry had three open shots all night long. Pop has figured out a way to deny Curry the three point shot without actually blitzing, and Mark Jackson has yet to figure out a counter. He may, in fact, be helpless to figure out a counter.

Because of Andrew Bogut. And because of the injury to David Lee.

A major reason that Pop’s defense is so successful against Curry is that he has no real options off the pick and roll. His number one option is to jack a quick shot over a closing trap. His second option is to dribble into another trap, and try to get a runner off over a 7 footer.

His third option, which should be his main option against this defense, is to pass to the roll man. The only problem with that is that his roll man is Andrew Bogut, and Bogut is helpless to create offense against the Spurs defense. He can’t shoot the 15 footer. He can’t beat the Spurs rotation to the basket. And because his roll is no threat, the other Spurs defenders can stick like glue to their men on the wings. Giving Curry no option at all to find a three point shooter.

One of the very biggest differences between the Spurs and the Warriors is that the Spurs have two-way big men, and the Warriors don’t. The Warriors are playing 4 on 5 on the offensive end.

Do they miss David Lee yet?

Jack: Warriors fans will be all over his turnovers. I will note this: like Curry, he’s being trapped on the pick and roll, which makes even good ballhandlers turnover prone, and that’s down to Andrew Bogut’s inability to play on offense.

It’s also down to the coaches, as Jerry West says. It may be time to simply get Bogut out of the way, and iso Curry and Jack at the top, as the Warriors did to beat Denver’s blitz. Remember that?

Bogut: It’s possible he tweaked his ankle, by landing on Splitter’s foot in the first quarter. It’s also possible that, like Game 5 against Denver, his ankle was killing him before the game started, and he took the game off.

Whichever is the case, Bogut was awful in this game. Most of the time, didn’t even attempt to guard the pick and roll. Left Duncan completely unguarded in the key. Couldn’t move laterally at all to challenge layups. Not a presence on the boards.

Assuming they have to choose, should the Warriors shoot him up for Game 6, or wait until a possible Game 7? I think they’ll opt for Game 6, in front of the home crowd.

I expect Bogut to come out for Game 6 like he did in Game 6 against Denver. As for how he finishes, let’s hope Mark Jackson’s god keeps his hands on him.

Jefferson: He looks pretty darn good in his minutes to me. Like a veteran. Do you have the feeling he could have had a bigger role this season? Given David Lee a breather at stretch-four? Helped the Warriors win some games?

One of the biggest mysteries of this season, that was left completely unexplored by the beat writers. $10 million, left on the bench to rot.

There was a Rookie of the Year contest to consider, I guess.

Thompson: He’s simply not being left open, and he’s not being given the ball to create his own shot. Mark Jackson is going to the Barnes mismatch for that.

Mitch Richmond had something to say about this on the Warriors post-game show. He doesn’t think Thompson’s shooting woes are entirely his fault, because he’s been the forgotten man. He thinks the Warriors need to put the ball in his hands more, and get him going.

There might be some truth to that.

Corey Joseph: Gave the Spurs some big minutes in this game in relief of Tony Parker. Pop reached into the D-Leagues on March 1 for Joseph, in response to the injury devastation to the Spurs backcourt. And he’s become a part of the Spurs’ playoff rotation.

Once Brandon Rush went down, do you think the Warriors could have used Joseph, or a player like him, to back up Curry and Jack? Cut down their minutes? Keep them fresh for the playoffs? Step up big in the playoffs in the event of injury?

That’s not how Joe Lacob operates. For the third straight season, Lacob stripped the Warriors bench at the trading deadline. Do you think the Warriors could have used Charles Jenkins in the last few games?

Hey, at least we got under the cap.

Kawhi Leonard: He’s shooting 58% in this series (chiefly with Barnes guarding him). But I don’t watch him for his offense.

I watch him for his defense, which is out of this world. I would love to see the stats on what Thompson and Curry are shooting when guarded by him. I’m guessing it’s well below 40%.

What a player, and a big reason why the Spurs are currently in control of this series.

Two-way wings are what win in the NBA. Whether you build your team conventionally, like Memphis and Indiana, or as a Nellieball team, like Miami, OKC, and Denver, they are not an option. They are essential.

Barnes: Had a genuinely good offensive game, probably his best so far as a Warrior. Still covered by the Spurs’ worst defender for most of the game (whether that be Parker, Neal, or Bonner) — still single-covered by Pop (Pop is by his coverage essentially daring the Warriors to beat them with Barnes) — Barnes responded with a coolly efficient 10-18 for 25 points, and only one turnover. Instead of validating the Spurs defense with a godawful 9-26 and 4 TO performance, he punished the Spurs defense for disrespecting him, and just possibly gave Pop something to think about going into Game 6.

I took some heat for pointing out Barnes’ inefficiency in his last game. Let me ask those who criticized me something: In the Pacers-Knicks game played earlier tonight, Carmelo Anthony shot 9-23 for 24 points, and JR Smith shot 7-22 for 19 points, not against Tony Parker and Matt Bonner, but against the best defense in the entire league. Do you think the Knicks’ PR department splashed “Melo and JR Shoot Lights Out!” all over their post-game show?

Of course they didn’t. Because that would be an insult to their fans’ intelligence.

This was the first time all season that I felt that Barnes looked truly comfortable in isolation. As Jim Barnett noted post-game, he took his time and surveyed the defense before deciding what he wanted to do. There was very little forcing. He even scored efficiently over Danny Green, on the few possessions Green picked him up. Progress.

Can you imagine what it would mean to the Warriors if Barnes were able to force either Leonard or Green off of Curry or Thompson, in order to guard him? I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that happens, but it is Barnes’ job to make it happen. Or to at least give Pop a headache thinking about it.

Or how about forcing Pop to start sending double teams again, as he did in Games 1-3? To give Curry and Thompson a chance of finding a crack of daylight in the black night of the Spurs’ smothering defense. That is Harrison Barnes’ job, when he finds himself being single-covered by Tony Parker.

On the defensive end… well, I’ll just point out once again that there are light years between Barnes and the Spurs wings Leonard and Green on that end. But I did notice him help turn Tony Parker over once, and block his shot to end the second half. I believe that’s his first block of the series. Progress.

(You see how I did that?)

This was a win notable for physical courage and sheer determination. It was more like watching the 15th round of a heavyweight prize fight than a basketball game.

But a seasoned NBA playoff watcher’s story line to this game would be far more cynical than those above. It would be something like this: In a must win home game for the Warriors, and a throwaway road game for the Spurs — a game in which the home team typically dominates — the Warriors barely survived. The Spurs were road-weary, unmotivated on the glass, unable to hit a shot, nor even a free throw. (The Spurs were 14-25 on FTs, 56% in this game. They were 4th in the league at 78.7% during the regular season, one notch better than the Warriors.) And yet the game was tied at the end of regulation. If anything, this game made it even more clear that the Spurs are currently in control of this series.

Perhaps the most important story line of this game — and certainly one that Warriors fans should hope is true — is that it bought some time for Stephen Curry’s ankle to heal. Because barring his miraculous return to health, and another playoff performance for the ages, I can’t see the Warriors stealing another game in San Antonio.

JACK!: Jack had a JACK! game. He carried the Warriors, as the primary ball-handler throughout. Hit big shot after big shot in the second half.

Spent a lot of time guarding Tony Parker, which was an interesting adjustment on Mark Jackson’s part. By setting Parker up further from the rim, Pop took away Klay Thompson’s effectiveness. Jack can’t challenge Parker’s shot as well as Klay, but he can make Parker work harder to shake free.

Warriors fans are out of their minds in their criticism of Jarrett Jack. He’s not a perfect player, by any means. But he’s a damn good one.

Metta World Peace recently tweeted that Jack is a top ten point guard in the league. I think that’s about right.

A top ten point guard who will be too expensive for the capped-out Joe Lacob next year. And too much in the way of Harrison Barnes.

Curry: I’m just beyond sad to see this great player hobbled again. And in particular that Warriors fans and the world will most likely be denied the chance to see him try to carry the Warriors in the meaningful Game 5.

How many players could hit 5 threes on one leg?

Check out that clutch right-handed runner he hit in crunchtime. He wrong-footed it, off his healthy right foot. One of the greatest talents to ever set foot on the hardwood.

David Lee: Every time Lee takes the court, I have to admit I think about RG3, and how outraged at Mike Shanahan I was during that game. But six specialists and a bishop have said it’s OK for him to play, so I guess it must be OK.

In this game, his performance was much more than inspirational. Due to early foul trouble on Bogut and Ezeli, the Warriors were desperate for his minutes.

All those members of the bellowing herd who think David Lee is a “terrible” defender, owe it to him to replay the first 6 defensive possessions he played in this game, in which the Spurs were held scoreless.

David Lee doesn’t defend the rim. He’s not a shotblocker. But the simple fact of the matter is that Lee is a very decent defender, mano a mano, against opposing big men in the post. He’s proven that against Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Blake Griffin and numerous others. And he showed it again, last night, on one leg.

And there’s something else I’d like to ask the bellowing herd: Is defensive rebounding a part of playing defense? Ending a defensive possession with a rebound?

I think some guys who played with Dennis Rodman might have an opinion on that.

Barnes Shoots Lights Out! That was the graphic the Warriors PR department pasted onto the post-game show. Really? I have to confess, I wasn’t nearly as impressed as they wanted me to be by his 9-26 shooting. Barnes made just enough buckets to keep the Warriors in this game, but it’s hilarious to me that anyone would call this a good performance, let alone the performance of Barnes’ young life.

Barnes was nearly always being guarded by the worst Spurs defender on the court, whether Parker, Neal or Bonner. And for some reason, Pop left him alone in isolation. He had been trapping Barnes, to great effect, in all the previous games. (Was this a head-game? Will he revert to trapping Barnes in Game 5? Or was he simply trying to induce a 9-26 performance?)

All alone in isolation, Barnes managed to get to the rim a couple of times. Particularly against Bonner, which is a great matchup for him. But against the Spurs point guards he generally looked terrible. Spinning, off-balance jumpers. Poor decisions. 4 TOs.

He looked even worse on defense. None of the Spurs could make a shot, of course,  but when either Green or Leonard decided to take it to the rim, they went right by him. He can’t stay in front of anyone. Which was probably on his mind when Ginobili broke his ankles at 0:20 4th quarter, and he fell on his ass. Ginobili missed the wide open three to win the game, as Barnes watched from a seat on the floor.

Barnes did grab 10 rebounds, in a game where rebounds were raining, but most were uncontested, in a game in which the Spurs didn’t expend much energy on the offensive boards. One rebound that was very much contested occurred in crunchtime at 4:50 4Q: Leonard simply threw Barnes to the ground for an offensive rebound and put back.

The great Hubie Brown weighed in on that one: “Absolutely inexcusable!”

I know I’m gonna get a lot of hate mail for this evaluation of Barnes’ game. Trust me, I know the kid is only 20 years old, and has a lot of room to grow, and a lot of years in which to grow. But until that happens, is it OK if I just tell it like it is? I’m not selling season tickets on this blog.

Here’s something to show I’m not a complete Grinch: One area in which Barnes has excelled in these playoffs is at the free throw line, where I believe he’s shooting well over 90%, 7-7 in this game, and looking completely unflappable. Not bad, for a player who shot 76% on FTs in the regular season.

If these playoffs have proven anything about Barnes’ game, it’s that he has ice water in his veins.

Klay: I understand Mark Jackson’ game plan to attack the Spurs’ weakest defensive link. But that clutch drive and running banker Klay hit over Leonard at 0:30 4Q really showed me something.

I’d rather put the ball in Klay’s hands against Leonard and Green, than in Barnes’ hands against Tony Parker. I think this great player could do better than 9-26.

Landry: One of the best 2-9 performances you’ll ever see. His defense against Tim Duncan was superb, one of the most surprising things about this game.

Bogut: Fought through silly first half foul trouble to have a big impact in the second half. He was particularly good in one on one defense against Tim Duncan. Or maybe Duncan was just busy laying an egg. I’m not altogether certain which is most true, but Game 5 in San Antonio will probably provide a clue.

Bogut also owned the defensive glass, with 18 rebounds in 28 minutes.

As big as Bogut played in this game, though, I saw some signs for concern going forward. For instance, I thought there were signs that Bogut didn’t feel great on his ankle. Like that play at 8:00 3Q, where he got the offensive rebound and had a wide open dunk at the rim. Instead of leaping, he flipped up a soft two-handed bowl of mess. That was followed by his failure to get up to catch Curry’s alley-oop at 5:00 4Q.

Speaking of his ankle, have you noticed how the Warriors have gone dark on the subject of his injections? I intended to predict that, after his spontaneous admission in the afterglow of the Warriors Round One victory, but it slipped my mind. So I’ll say it now: you will hear no more about Bogut’s injections for the rest of the playoffs, even though we are hearing about Curry’s.

Another thing that should be extremely concerning to the Warriors is Bogut’s complete inability to cover the Spurs’ pick and roll. He hates coming out to pick up the guards. That actually didn’t hurt the Warriors too much in this game, as Parker missed more than half of his wide open shots. But I’m not sure you can count on that continuing in Game 5.

When he is pressured by made shots to try coming out a little further, he renders himself helpless against the drive. Both Parker and Ginobili burned him on drives in this game.

A few signature plays to check out:

• 10:00 3Q, a high pick for Parker out at the three point line leaves Bogut high and dry in no man’s land.
• Starting at 6:25 4th Q, Ginobili runs two straight pick and rolls against Bogut. One results in a wide open three, the other in a layup.
• 0:40 4th Q Parker cans the second of two straight wide open jumpers over Bogut.

As Mark Jackson loves to say, “It’s a make or miss league.” And in this game the Spurs missed. But it remains true that Bogut’s pick and roll coverage leaves the Warriors completely at the mercy of Parker and Ginobili’s ability to hit wide open shots.

If the Warriors are going to steal Game 5 in San Antonio, Bogut will have to have a more active game. Better than this one. It might be time for another injection.

On a slightly different topic, Magic Johnson made a very curious comment at halftime in this game. He said:

This summer, Golden State, if they want to be a championship team, they got to get a post player who can score down low.

I had two immediate thoughts about this. The first was: Huh? Doesn’t Magic realize that the Warriors have Andrew Bogut? To which the answer is yes, of course he does. So what is he saying? Apparently, Magic Johnson considers Bogut to be an extremely limited offensive player, incapable of playing in the low post. A one-way player who’s not championship caliber. Either that, or he doesn’t believe Bogut will be around next year.

My second thought was: Huh? Didn’t Magic watch the last two Finals? Did the Mavs or the Heat ever throw it into the low post? Did the Thunder?

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers play the kind of basketball that Magic Johnson and Joe Lacob recognize. But the other contenders in today’s NBA are working from a completely different model.

The Nellieball model.

These are a few of the adjustments that Pop has made in this series, and in this game in particular, that allowed the Spurs to steal this Game 3 on the Warriors home court:

1) Go Big or Go Home: In my preview to this game, I predicted that Pop would return Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup, and fairly accurately forecast the many likely results of this move. Rather than restate them in depth here, I’ll let you check out my preview if you’re interested.

But here’s the pocket version:

The defense and rebounds obsessed Warriors head coach matched up big with Splitter and Duncan, by moving Ezeli into the starting lineup, and Draymond Green out. And there went the Warriors’ fast break, there went their spacing, there went their ability to get Curry and Thompson open looks. A 23 point first quarter was the natural result, that left the Warriors fighting from behind the whole game.

On the other side of the court, the Spurs used their big lineup to squeeze the air out the ball, control the Warriors fast break, and limit the Warriors possessions.

 2) Eliminate the Bonner-Draymond Green mismatch that hurt the Spurs, and create the Diaw-Green mismatch in the Spurs favor:

Bonner against Green didn’t work for the Spurs, so Pop immediately went away from it. He forced Green out of the starting lineup, and matched up Boris Diaw against him on the second unit.

You saw the result. Diaw took Green down into the low post for three buckets. Eliminated Green’s quickness advantage, and exploited his size deficiency.

Bonner saw some minutes, but only against bigger players (like Bogut, Lee and Landry), that he could both defend and on offense, pull out of the lane to guard him at the three point line. He didn’t knock down his open threes in this game, but if he had, his minutes would have been effective.

3) Defense on Stephen Curry: The ESPN crew noted that Curry hasn’t been shooting well since his 54 minute Game 1, and wondered if it took too much out of him. Mark Jackson stated post-game that “it’s a make or miss league,” and Curry and Thompson just missed shots.

Baloney.

What has happened to Curry, as I noted in my recap of the last game, is that Pop made a brilliant adjustment to his defense. He is no longer allowing Curry to set up camp at the three point line, either in isolation or in pick and roll. The Spurs are forcing him to either give up the ball, or dribble into two point territory.

How are they doing this? Not by blitzing, which was the strategy employed by George Karl, that Curry and the Warriors ultimately beat with a spread floor and Curry’s great playmaking ability.

Tony Parker, who opened the first and third quarters on Curry, is picking him up above the three point line, and forcing him side-to-side. This denies Curry his favorite shot, the step-back.

Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are picking him up somewhat later, but also forcing him side-to-side, instead of face-guarding. This forces Curry to drive the ball, and as soon as he nears the basket, a Spurs big man steps up to block his path.

On pick and roll, and this was new this game, the Spurs big men weren’t exactly blitzing, but they weren’t sagging off either. They were expecting Curry to pull up for the jumper, and they were right in his face when he complied.

Curry missed a few open shots in this game, but in reality got very few open looks. The Spurs were totally focused on denying his three point shot.

Defense on Klay Thompson: Klay was guarded extremely closely by Green and Leonard in this game. Unlike in the last game, they never left him open, and their length made it tough for him. As a result, like Curry, he wound up forcing some bad shots.

Squeezing the Air out of the Ball: On offense, the Spurs squeezed the air out of the ball, playing deliberate half-court offense to slow the tempo of the game. They pounded the ball inside, and attacked the offensive boards. Their great floor balance allowed them to play great transition defense.

Running Curry and Thompson ragged: In the course of running their offense, the Spurs made sure to use Parker and Green to run Curry and Thompson through multiple screens, every trip down.

Clever.

Denying the transition three: Can you remember a transition three in this game? The shot that killed the Spurs in the first two games? Pop made a brilliant adjustment to deny this shot to Curry and Thompson:

If you rewind the tape, you will see Duncan and Splitter lingering to pick up and trap Curry and Thompson at the three point line in transition, instead of running straight back as usual to take their post in the lane.

They were aided in this, of course, by the slowness of Andrew Bogut getting up the court.

The Tony Parker Adjustment: In another brilliant move, Pop eliminated the advantage of Klay Thompson’s length in defending Tony Parker.

How? By simply moving Parker, and the high pick, further out on the floor. In the first two games, the Spurs were setting that pick around the free throw line. In this game, it was being set closer to the three point line.

This gave Parker a lot more space to use his quickness to separate himself from Klay. It also completely removed him from the reach of Andrew Bogut, who is helpless to defend pick and roll that far out on the floor.

And in this game at least, Parker relentlessly knocked down the shots that are a little longer than what he likes to take. Including a couple of big threes.

Can Klay Thompson really guard Tony Parker? I think Pop supplied the answer to that question in this game. As Jerry West might put it, “that was on the coaches.”

Hack-a-Bogut: Not new this game, but completely devastating. Jackson was again reluctant to pull Bogut, and it cost him a possession, as Bogut missed 3 out of 4.

Here’s a cold hard truth about Bogut: his free throw shooting will not get better. It’s a result of his chronically arthritic right elbow.

Which means that he cannot be played at the end of games.

Mark Jackson’s Response: To his credit, Jackson replaced Ezeli with Carl Landry to start the third quarter, to give the Warriors some much needed floor spacing and offense. And more speed on the break. Landry has done a much better job running the floor in these playoffs than in the regular season.

And for much of this game, Landry was surprisingly effective. In crunchtime, though, Duncan put him in the grinder.

One wonders, though, if this is the best adjustment that Jackson could have made. Did he need to make an adjustment at all? Does he actually need to match up big against the Splitter and Duncan front line all of the time? Or should he actually try spreading the floor against them, and running?

Jim Barnett stated the problem in sharp terms, post-game: “This team cannot afford to play halfcourt basketball against the Spurs.”

Food for thought.

Calling David Lee: True to form, the ignorati at the San Jose Mercury News seized upon the Warriors’ success against the crippled and smallball Nuggets, and the crippled and smallball Spurs of the first two games, to bray to the world that the Warriors are “better without David Lee.”

This game put the lie to that, didn’t it? Do you think the Warriors could have used Lee to start the first and third quarters against Splitter and Duncan? Pull them out of the lane a bit? Give Curry something to work with in the pick and roll? Beat them downcourt in transition?

A large part of the reason why the Spurs defense is so effective on Curry, is that they don’t need to worry about guarding the Warriors’ bigs in pick and roll. When Curry passes them the ball, there is no worry about them shooting the 18 footer. And the Spurs have plenty of time to rotate if they drive the lane.

Lee punishes the blitz and the hedge. He hits that 18 footer. He drives the lane at speed and either gets a look at the rim, or finds an open man at the three point line.

And how about in crunch-time, when Hack-a-Bogut removes the Warriors big man from the floor? Who do you want at crunch-time center, running pick and roll with Curry and Jack, the best pick and roll center in the NBA, or Carl Landry?

Here’s the truth about David Lee. Against conventional front lines, he’s a heck of a power forward.  But like every other conventional power forward in the league, he struggles on defense against stretch-fours. And when Bogut is playing well, and Mark Jackson has suddenly discovered, for the first time all season, that Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green are actually effective stretch-fours themselves, it might be true that the Warriors match up better against smallball teams without Lee at power forward.

Which is not to say they wouldn’t match up well playing smallball with Lee at center, in crunch-time. His best position, according to Don Nelson. The position at which he earned two All-Star selections, and carried this Warriors team into the post-season.

The great Hubie Brown summed it up well during the ESPN broadcast. People should stop focusing on all the things that Lee doesn’t do, and think a little bit more about all of the things that he does do. He’s one of the best players in the NBA, and the Warriors miss him terribly.

Tim Duncan is still one of the great offensive big men in the game, but Bogut and Ezeli’s ability to guard him one-on-one takes away a lot of his value to his team. Now he’s just a semi-efficient scorer of two point buckets, and not the team facilitator of layups and open threes that he can be when double-teamed.

What can Popovich do about this? What is the correct strategy for a team that is facing a major deficit in offensive talent?  

The correct strategy is to limit the other team’s offensive possessions. To get bigger, to crash the offensive boards, and to attempt to slow the pace to a crawl. To get into crunch time with the game still close, and then hope you can execute your inside game more efficiently than the Warriors can run their offense.

This must be a bit of a through the looking-glass experience for Pop. Because for several years, as Duncan has aged and his role diminished, it has been the Spurs that have been playing Nellieball, pushing the tempo, and trying to fast break and three-point shoot other teams into submission. That won’t work for the Spurs in this series. The newly Nellieball Warriors have flipped the switch on them. They are better at the Spurs’ game than the Spurs themselves.

I think Pop is too great a coach not to realize this. Which is why I expect a major adjustment from him in Game 3 or 4.

Go Big or Go Home: I expect Pop to return Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup as soon as possible, and ride him as much as he can. This could help the Spurs in several ways:

1) Force the Warriors to take talent off the floor: Jackson is likely to match up big against Splitter and Duncan, with Ezeli starting at four as he did in Game 1. While I love Ezeli as a role-playing center, he is clearly not a talented power forward. Can’t spread the floor, can’t facilitate, not a scorer. Putting Ezeli on the floor, and removing Draymond Green to the bench, takes a lot of offensive talent off the floor for the Warriors, and eliminates the mismatch of Green on Bonner that hurt the Spurs.

The more the Spurs can force Ezeli and Landry onto the court, and Green off, the better off they’ll be. Draymond Green has been a force in this series.

2) Makes the Warriors skill players that much easier to guard: because they will no longer have a spread floor to work with.

3) Take away possessions from the Warriors by offensive rebounding: We saw this begin in Game 3, where the Spurs were far more aggressive going to the offensive glass. With Duncan and Splitter crashing the glass, the Warriors’ big men will have their hands full. That may free Kawhi Leonard to slip in for some easy putbacks.

4) Use the low post game: By alternating Duncan and Splitter in the post, the Spurs can slow the pace of the game considerably. When lowering the opposing team’s possessions is a necessity, this is a good strategy.

5) Make the Warriors play half court basketball, by taking away their fastbreak and early offense: Offensive rebounding can nullify a fastbreak. That’s how the Bird Celtics competed with the Showtime Lakers.

Obviously, the Warriors will be far less fast down court with two big men on the floor. And obviously, the more they have to concentrate on helping out on the defensive glass, the less able they are to leak out. Harrison Barnes, in particular, will be preoccupied with boxing out Leonard.

The low post game, if converted at a reasonable rate, can also take away the fastbreak. It might be overall less efficient than shooting threes, but it does put the ball through the net more frequently. The Warriors can’t run when they’re taking the ball out of the net.

6) Get the Warriors in foul trouble, and get into the penalty: The benefits of getting Bogut and Ezeli into foul trouble are obvious.

What’s not so obvious is that if the Spurs can get into the penalty early, they can slow the Warriors fast break. You cannot run after free throws, even if they miss.

7) Wear Bogut’s ankle down: You may have noticed this season that the Warriors frequently hid Bogut from the big centers he should have been guarding. It was David Lee, for instance, that guarded Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins. The official reason was that the Warriors didn’t want Bogut to be pulled out of the lane, which makes some sense.

But I also think it was clear they were protecting Bogut’s ankle. It clearly pained him to bang with opposing bigs.

The more the Spurs can force Bogut to bang with Splitter the better for them.

Matchups: Danny Green will be guarding Curry, and forcing him right, as we saw in Game 2.

Pop will try to get away with guarding Barnes with Tony Parker as much as possible. It’s punishing for Parker, but Barnes’ iso’s have clearly been the Warriors least efficient offense.

Bonner is likely done for the series. Draymond is kryptonite for him. When the Spurs go small, it will likely be with Leonard at the four.

Mark Jackson will try to punish Tony Parker wherever he is on the court. You can predict which Warriors player will get the ball by whom Parker is guarding.

The Spurs X-Factor: Gary Neal figures to get more playing time going forward, because the Spurs desperately need to get quicker on the floor, and to get some scoring.

The Warriors have struggled against small and quick shooting guards this season (Monta, Reddick). Neal is a streaky shooter who can take over a game. With Ginobili effectively MIA, the Spurs badly need Neal to get hot.

The Over/Under: I picked up the free money on the over in Game 1, when both teams were obviously going to go small.

I got out of the way in Game 2 (comment 20), both because the line went up, and Tiago Splitter was returning.

As I now evaluate the series, I have completely changed my mind about this bet. It seems obvious to me now that Popovich must radically change course, and start trying to take the air out of the ball. If that happens, both teams will score less.

The line for Game 3 is currently 203, and I have no interest either way.

The Series: The Warriors are currently +150. That’s a nice price, if you believe that the Warriors are the best team, with home court advantage.

Jump for the reasons why:         

The Myth of Tony Parker: First of all, the Tony Parker we’re seeing right now is not the real Tony Parker, the guy we saw for most of the regular season. Parker had a really bad ankle sprain a few weeks ago, that he will not recover from this year. He is a step slow.

Secondly, Parker struggles against length. That was proven in last year’s playoffs against OKC. The Spurs looked good getting out to a 2-0 lead, then OKC shifted Sefolosha onto him and swept the Spurs out. Why? Because Parker operates in the confined spaces of the paint. He likes getting into the paint on pick and roll, and pulling up for short jumpers, or continuing for layups. Bogut is contesting his layups, and Thompson and Green are denying his short jumpers. 7-17 in this game.

Third, because Parker doesn’t spread the floor, he is always looking to score two points. As the modern theory of basketball (which more and more confirms the validity of Nellieball) is fond of pointing out, even 59% from two is not as efficient as 40% from three.

Tony Parker is NOT as good a point guard as Stephen Curry.

The Myth of Manu Ginobili: One of my favorite players of all time. James Harden before James Harden was James Harden.

Guess what? He doesn’t exist any more. He didn’t exist all season long. Lowest minutes since he was breaking in, plummeting scoring average. Bad shooting percentage. Even his free throws suffered.

Ginobili’s legs are shot. He has hamstring problems in both legs. He’s slow to the hoop, his jump is gone, he can’t feel his three point shot.

And this once all-pro defender can’t be put on Curry.

The Myth of Low Post Basketball: I don’t want to take anything away from Bogut and Ezeli. They were fabulous on Duncan tonight. But the fact of the matter is that low post basketball, as Mike D’Antoni is fond of pointing out, is the least efficient form of basketball there is. It’s turnover prone, and it converts at under 50%, even in the hands of masters.

It is simply not a match for 40% from three, which the Warriors have been producing regularly — against playoff competition — using Nellieball.

Duncan was 9-20 for 23 points in this game. A nice effort. But he’s playing for two, while the Warriors are playing for three.

The Myth of Matt Bonner: This is a little unfair to Bonner. He’s a fine stretch four, a 44% shooter from three, and a very useful player.

Against bigger players. That’s when Bonner is effective, when he’s matched up against conventional fours and fives that don’t want to leave the paint.

But the Nellieball Warriors are not matching up big against Bonner, they’re matching up small. With Draymond Green. And in this matchup, Bonner is transformed into a terrible player. A liability. Green has no problem covering Bonner at the 3 point line, at running him off his preferred shot. And that’s the sum total of his game.

What’s left is an indifferent rebounder and a wretched defender.

Pop gave Bonner a seat on the pine to start the third quarter, going with Kawhi Leonard at stretch four. This may become a theme.

The Myth of Tiago Splitter: Like sprained ankle Kenneth Faried, sprained ankle Tiago Splitter is not Tiago Splitter. He is very likely not to return to full strength in this series.

Tiago Splitter dominates Carl Landry. Carl Landry dominates sprained ankle Tiago Splitter.

The Nellieball Warriors: Enough with the Spurs, why is it that the Warriors are so darn good right now? Why is it that they are a far more dominant team in the playoffs than they were all season long?

This is familiar territory for the readers of this blog. I believe it’s because they are finally, after three long years, matching up small, pushing the tempo, spreading the floor, and playing pick and roll. They are finally playing the system that allows Stephen Curry’s ungodly talents to flourish.

Nellieball.

A lot of people will point to the fact that the stellar defensive play of Andrew Bogut in these playoffs has been equally important to the Warriors’ dominance. And I will absolutely grant that, right up front.

But even on the defensive side, look what happens when you start the Nellieball four Draymond Green alongside Bogut. All of a sudden, and for the first time all season, the Warriors have two all-world defenders on the court. All of a sudden the Warriors can defend the perimeter, as well as the paint.

Even when the Warriors started Barnes at four and Jack in the backcourt, they were a better defensive team. And no, I’m not picking on David Lee, whose man to man defense (against conventional big men, not stretch fours) is severely underrated. It’s because all season long Barnes has been a mediocre to terrible defender of threes. He’s simply a better defender when playing the stretch-four, because of his quickness advantage.

Simply put, since Lee went out, the gains the Warriors have made in quickness have far outweighed what they’ve lost in size on the defensive end. By a large margin.

On the offensive end — forgive me for recapitulating three long years of argument — but this is what Nellieball has done for the Warriors in the playoffs:

Gotten Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson wide open looks at early offense threes. Klay was 8-9 from three in this game, many of which would have had Marcus Thompson yelling “Noooooooooooooo!” earlier in the season, and ranting in his blog about forcing shots and not running offense.

It’s no longer a secret known only to Don Nelson and a handful of acolytes (Greg Popovich and George Karl). Now it’s the stuff of Sloan Conference papers. 40% from three in the open court cannot be defended. 40% from three cannot be outscored. 40% from three is unbeatable.

What else is Nellieball doing for the Warriors? The spread floor in the half court, of course. And what does the spread floor do? Allow the Warriors to run pick and roll for Curry without the danger of getting blitzed. Allow Curry to create in isolation at the three point line. Allow Curry to bomb at will from the three point line. And something else we haven’t seen since his rookie season under Nellie: get into the lane off the dribble.

Turn Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green into better players at the four, in the playoffs, than they were at the three, in the regular season. Make the Warriors unguardable on the perimeter. Get Bogut wide open dunks, which is his best and only offense. Not counting his supreme passing ability, which is also magnified when the floor is spread.

Klay Thompson: I called Stephen Curry a potential Hall of Famer — to much derision –towards the end of his rookie season. And I called Klay Thompson a potential Hall of Famer — to much derision — at a time of this season when it seemed every Warriors fan was down on him.

That’s feltbot’s brand. To be first, out on a limb. And to be right, every single time.

That, and self-congratulatory masturbation. (Comment 1.)

Mark Jackson’s Adjustments: First, he ditched the Festus at four idea in this game, starting Draymond Green at four. A brilliant adjustment, that worked to perfection in two ways:

1. Winning the matchup with Bonner, as discussed above.
2. Allowing Green to switch onto Tony Parker on screens, instead of forcing Klay to chase him. Quite obviously, this helped keep Klay out of foul trouble in this game, and probably kept his legs fresher as well.

Second, to my eye at least, he kept the Warriors in attack mode throughout the fourth quarter, instead of trying to run clock.

Third, although he gave away one possession to Hack-a-Bogut, he got Bogut off the floor immediately, instead of stubbornly resisting it. Next step: anticipating it entirely.

Fourth, when Pop tried to hide Parker on Barnes, he attacked the matchup mercilessly. On the surface, this did not go well for the Warriors. Iso’s and backing down smaller players are the least effective part of Barnes game. He’s extremely prone to being trapped, leading to turnovers and bad shots.

But what it did do is completely gas Parker, if you can trust that shot of him grabbing his shorts under the basket as we went to a commercial timeout.

George Karl was announced as the Coach of the Year today. And it’s hard to argue with the way he had his Nuggets playing before Gallinari, Faried and Lawson got injured. Big late season road wins in OKC and San Antonio with major playoff seeding implications on the line.

Tom Thibodeau has done an extraordinary job with a severely crippled squad. Eric Spoelstra made the radical adjustment to Nellieball, and had the Heat performing at a supreme level.

But there’s been no better coach in the NBA this season than Mark Jackson.

Pop’s Adjustments: First, Pop found a defense in the second half that was extraordinarily effective in containing Curry. Instead of having Danny Green face-guard Curry, and leaving him exposed to Curry’s all-world crossover and step-back, he had Green force Curry side-to-side. Usually to the right, which is a tougher direction from which to square up and pull up for jumpers.

Curry had no alternative but to abandon the three-point line, and drive towards the basket. Where he was picked up and trapped by a bigger help defender.

Curry struggled against this defense in three ways. First, it took away his three point shot. Second, he forced some difficult runners over the defense. And third, he found it tougher to find open teammates.

Now why didn’t George Karl think of that? This is a somewhat worrisome development.

Second, Pop had the Spurs far more aggressive in crashing the offensive boards. Leaving Danny Green on Curry freed up Leonard in this role. This helped get Bogut and Draymond Green in foul trouble.

Pop has one more very obvious adjustment he can make: returning Splitter to the starting lineup, if his health allows. This could radically alter the dynamics between the two teams, simply by forcing Mark Jackson to match up big. It could also put even more pressure on Bogut’s ankle — which didn’t look as good tonight as it did in the previous two games. And it could create foul trouble.

The Series: The Spurs are not fazed in the least by being on the road in the playoffs. I have seen them steal countless Game 3′s after dropping a game at home to inferior teams.

The problem for them is that the Warriors are not an inferior team.

Warriors in six.