I will admit upfront that I totally blew my analysis of this series. I stated that the Clippers were awful defensively on the wings, and that proved to be flat out wrong, for several reasons. First of all, Caron Butler was superb defensively on Rudy Gay, which surprised the heck out of me.  Secondly, Eric Bledsoe was a complete revelation defensively, and he got some important minutes not only at back-up point, but at the two alongside Paul. Based on this performance, Bledsoe is one of the best on the ball defenders in the league.  And third, KMart was absolutely incredible on the defensive end, in the Ekpe Udoh role: switching out on guards, and covering the whole floor.  Neither Gay nor Mayo could shake him on the perimeter, and Gasol and Randolph struggled for everything inside.

I did predict that the Grizzlies would suffer chemistry problems with Zach Randolph’s reinsertion into the starting lineup after missing the entire season. I had no idea they would be this bad, though.  The Grizzlies offense was a complete mess, with Hollins never figuring out how to exploit his edge inside, and Rudy Gay perhaps unwilling to follow that agenda.  The much maligned Vinnie del Negro looked like a genius in this series, completely outcoaching Hollins.

Please note that Lacob target DeAndre Jordan averaged about 20 (horrible) minutes in this series, and that the Clippers came out on top playing small, with Griffin and Evans at center in crunch time. Yes, you can win in the playoffs going “small”, as the Thunder are about to prove to the big, bad Lakers, the Heat are about to prove against Indiana, and the Celtics and the Sixers are about to prove against each other.

And I think we’re going to see a lot of small ball in this next series as well:

Spurs vs Clippers:  There’s no line on this series yet, probably because of the uncertainty surrounding Blake Griffin’s knee.  I expect the price to be around 9-1 favoring the Spurs. And I think the Spurs will very likely sweep, regardless of Griffin’s health.

The Spurs can do what the Grizzlies couldn’t against the Clippers: Spread the floor and hit the three.  Unlike Mayo — who doesn’t have playoff length, and struggles to get his shot off — and unlike Gay — who is mediocre from three, the Spurs have a legion of proven playoff three-point shooters: Ginobil, Jackson, and Bonner. Not to mention the three point shooting wing rookies Pop added, who in the best Don Nelson mold, all have playoff length: 6-5″+.

And the Spurs can and will run, led of course by Parker and Ginobili.

I don’t think the Clippers’ defense will look nearly as good in this series as in the last.  I think the Spurs will average close to 100 points a game, and the Clips will struggle to break 90.

Thunder (-450) v. Lakers (+325):  I thought Kobe Bryant was amazing in game 7 against the Nuggets, in the way he unselfishly looked to set up his teammates all game long.  And in particular Pau Gasol, who is a fantastic player with the ball in his hands. Kobe made the Nuggets double-team pay.

Will he continue to play this way in the Thunder series?  I think it’s the only way the Lakers can win.  And in my experience Kobe has never played that way before.

And will Scottie Brooks go to school on the fabulous defensive game plan that George Karl designed for the Lakers?  Will he double Kobe or let Sefolosha and Harden try him one-on-one?

Lot of fascinating matchups to watch in this series, with Artest v. Durantula at the top of the list.  This year’s Metta World Peace is a far better player than last year’s Artest.  He’s completely healthy and in fantastic shape, and is back to playing some of the most ferocious defense in the league. Durant is in for a lot of pain, such as he’s never felt before. How will he react?

Kobe vs. Harden:  Harden is really, really good. Is he old-Kobe good? It’ll be tough for me to decide whether to focus on this matchup, or on World Peace tenderizing Durant’s kidneys out of sight of the refs.

Ibaka vs. Gasol: This will look like an utter rout, unless Kobe continues to set up his teammate.  If the Lakers continue running the Kobe/Gasol pick and roll that was so successful in game 7 against the Nuggets, Gasol will have a fighting chance.

Popovich, Nellie and Karl could win this matchup with Gasol. Phil Jackson couldn’t. Can Mike Brown?

Bynum vs. Perkins:  This should be an utter rout, and is the key to the Lakers’ chances in this series.  They need to get the Thunders bigs in foul trouble if they want to win. Will Bynum show up to play in every game?

Westbrook vs. The World:  The Lakers will need their whole team to keep Westbrook out of the lane.  If Westbrook’s jumper is falling — and it was much improved this season — the Lakers are in trouble.  But if it’s not, Westbrook will keep on shooting.  I suspect that he will badly want to be the star of this series, and that could be the Thunder’s Achilles heel.

But on the defensive end, Westbrook will completely devour Blake and Sessions.

It’s pretty hard to see the Lakers coming out of this series, considering how badly they struggled against Denver. The supercharged Thunder are the Nuggets on steroids.

On the other hand, the Lakers played Denver without Metta World Peace. And I’m pretty sure they tanked the middle games of the Denver series so that they’d have MWP back to start this series against the Thunder.

So maybe this series will be more competitive than the line suggests. It will be fun to watch, regardless — clearly the best series of the second round.

Let’s drop the puck.

Confession: I didn’t watch a single Eastern conference first round playoff game, even though I had money wagered (Celtics ftw). Actually, I guess I did watch parts of a couple Celtics’ 4th quarters against the Hawks. And I did manage to come up with another firm betting rule for myself in the process: Rule 916: Never Bet on a Team that has Josh Smith.          

I have no betting interest in the second round in the East. Not on the Heat (9-1) because I never bet on heavily favored teams. (For what it’s worth, that price is probably too high. What happens if Wade gets injured? I mean re-injured?)

And not on the Celtics (-240), because I think the 76ers (+210) actually have a pretty good chance to beat them.

Actually I’m not sure why I’m not betting the Sixers getting 2-1. They match up pretty well with these Celtics. Old-Pierce really struggled in the Bulls series against Deng. Not sure he can do any better against an Iguodala who’s at the top of his game. Ray Allen played the last couple of games, but looks too injured to make an impact. The Celtics bench is wretched.

And the ancient Celtics are one series older. In the playoffs that matters. They are in danger of getting run on by this Sixers team.

The good news for the Celtics is that they won’t try to match up big against the Sixers, ala Keith Smart and Mark Jackson. They’ve now got Garnett at center — always his best position — and he’s been dominating. And they’ve got Rondo. And Bass might work against Brand — but I think he’ll be lucky to be a wash against Thaddeus Young.

I like the Sixers chances to upset, but because I literally have never watched them, I can’t summon the conviction to bet.  I have no idea how this series turns out. And very little interest, since they’re playing for the right to be chum for the Great White Heat in the next round.

In the Western Conference game sevens, I’m sticking with my series predictions. I think the Lakers have been partially tanking this series to get Metta World Peace back before the start of the Thunder series. I think they manage to turn up their effort and beat the Nuggets.

Which is not to say I wouldn’t love to see the Lakers give up and quit, like they did against the Celtics in the finals, and the Mavericks last year. This team truly hates each other. Which is to say Bynum and Gasol hate Kobe Bryant. And I don’t blame them. Because Kobe would rather lose than let them outshine him in the playoffs. It’s absolutely ridiculous how he freezes them out when guarded by Mozgovs and McGees and 6-8″-in-disco-platforms Farieds.

The Grizzlies will, in Jeff van Gundy’s words, “roll” in game seven at home (favored by 9 points now, wow!). Because Les Griz are the better team, and they’ve finally gotten the message through to Rudy Gay and started playing the right way. Gay is the fourth best player on the team, if not the fifth. (Yes, I think I’d even rather have Tony Allen, crazy and unreliable with the ball in his hands as he is.)

And oh yes, because Blake Griffin has a boo-boo, and can’t run back on defense.

Jump for my 2012 NBA playoff first-round predictions. As well as my bonus predictions for the conference champions and the NBA title, in case you happen to be looking at those lines (I’m not).    

Before we get to the forecasting though, here’s a little scorekeeping on my season predictions to date:

Regular Season: The Western Conference played out pretty much as I predicted before the season.  I didn’t expect the veteran-laden Spurs to have the best record in the West, but I did have them higher than most, at fourth. I had Memphis — the team that knocked out the Spurs last year — higher, but I couldn’t predict that Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur would miss the regular season.

The one surprise for me was the Trailblazers, who imploded. It was a classic case of an incompetent coach who was handed a roster that he didn’t know what to do with.  (Something Warriors fans might be familiar with.) With the subtractions of Roy and Miller and the additions of Felton and Crawford, the Blazers should have gone from the slowest team in the league to one of the fastest. The only catch was Nate McMillan. He refused to change his approach, and lost his players as a result.

I shouldn’t have been so surprised. For years, I have been the only NBA commentator I am aware of who has consistently called Nate McMillan a fraud and an incompetent. I would have seen this coming, if I hadn’t watched the Blazers play a wide-open style in the preseason. What happened?

Replacing the Blazers — completely by default — were the Utah Jazz.  The Rockets and Suns collapsed from injury and old age. The Warriors tanked. The Jazz are without a doubt the weakest team in the Western Conference playoffs in over a decade. But they do have a couple of intriguing young players who started to put it together over the last half of the season: Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors.

Preseason Bets: I only made one preseason wager this season, betting on the Indiana Pacers over 36. 5 wins. Kaching! The Pacers closed the season at 42-24.

As always, I considered betting on the Warriors as well. Why not? I know the Warriors better than any other team, I know they have been historically undervalued relative to their talent, and I know that their 26.5 wins line was completely absurd — an insult. Consider the fact that they won 23 games, while trying to lose.

But in the end, I made the right read of Joe Lacob, and the correct decision not to bet the Warriors. This is what I wrote before the season, in The Las Vegas Verdict on Joe Lacob’s 2012 Golden State Warriors:

…. And we haven’t even gotten to the biggest “if” of all: If Joe Lacob decides to support his team this year at the trading deadline. As I read the tea leaves, I have serious doubts about whether that will happen. I am actually growing convinced that Lacob is looking to blow up the core of this Warriors team with a Monta Ellis trade, and that it could happen this season.

And this is what I wrote before the season, in Joe Lacob and the Hidden Meaning of the Warriors Bench:

Joe Lacob does not believe in his basketball team.

Joe Lacob does not believe that the Warriors can build successfully around the core of David Lee, Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis….

Big Things are Coming.

And when they do, Monta Ellis will be going.

Make of this what you will. I’ll tell you what I make of it: I’ve been reading Joe Lacob’s mail for two years, alone and on an island. No other Warriors writer has sought to give you the real truth regarding Joe Lacob and the Golden State Warriors. And very few readers have agreed with me. I don’t care. I got it right.

And I’m going to keep reading Lacob’s mail going forward, beginning with my next post. Stay tuned for my season post-mortem, if you have the stomach for it.

“Now that we’ve got that over with…” — Joe Lacob, 3-19-2012.

Not yet, Joe. Not yet. More coming. But for now, let’s take a break and talk about winners.

PLAYOFFS, BABY!

Before getting to the first round matchups and my picks, I’ll ruin the suspense and give you my Finals prediction: Spurs v. Heat. And the 2012 NBA champion?

Greg Popovich. I mean, the San Antonio Spurs. Too talented, too deep, too versatile, too well coached. They can and will play any lineup, any style, and exploit any matchup. Size, half court execution, three point shooting, speed, spread fours, wing stoppers, veteran backups. Checkity, check, check, check. And the best playoff coach in the league. After the one Joe Lacob fired, of course.

Their second asterisk.

Western Conference:

Spurs (-2000) v. Jazz (+1200): Next.

Lakers (-195) v. Nuggets (+175): It’s kind of scary that this line is so low, considering how much moronic Lakers money is going to get poured all over it. Kind of makes you think something must truly be up with the injury that’s kept Kobe Bryant out lately. It couldn’t be all about Metta World Peace’s suspension, could it?

The Lakers frontline has a massive advantage. The Manimal, Kenneth Faried, has been a revelation in his rookie year, but in the playoffs, undersized power forwards have been known to completely disappear against Bynum and Gasol. That’s you, Boozer.  The Nuggets are really going to need Javale McGee in this series. I’m tempted to say that’s all she wrote.

I would love to give the Nuggets a fighting chance.  Under normal circumstances, they might be able to flip this series by enforcing their up and down style of play. But here’s the deal: They’ve lost Wilson Chandler, who I think is one of their best players. Their other best player, Gallinari, is still coming off injury and doesn’t appear at all ready. Harrington is playing through a torn meniscus. And they’ve got a new team that’s never played together, much less in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Kobe’s injured, MWP’s out, and there is what I call the Derek Fisher problem. Do you remember how the ball always used to find Fisher at the three point line at the end of the shot clock? Do you remember how he always used to hit that shot? Well, nowadays that ball is finding Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake. One of whom can’t hit the backboard, and the other is afraid to even shoot.

Still, the Nuggets can’t win this series. Right? So why is this line so low?

I’m picking the Lakers. But I’m not betting them. And unlike the Warriors ownership, it’ll be a cold day in hell before I root for them, or any LA team.

Thunder (-475) v. Mavericks (+400): I don’t think the Mavs will look anything like the regular season pushover that went 1-3 against the Thunder. But without defensive stars Tyson Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson, and playmaker JJ Barea, I don’t think they have enough to hold off the Thunder this year.

It will be fascinating for me to watch the “new and improved” Brandon Wright in this series. I simply can’t imagine the player I once called “The Ragdoll” actually surviving real playoff contact with Nick Collison and Serge Ibaka. I expect blood, I expect dislocations, I expect fear of boxing out.

And I expect benching. Too bad they don’t have lines on these things.

Grizzlies (-200) v. Clippers (+180):  The smart money moved this line in a flash from the opening Grizzlies -135. And I think the smart money’s right.

The Clippers are absolutely awful at the wings. None of those guys can play a lick of defense, and I just don’t think you can win a playoff series with that.

Blake Griffin is one of the most overrated players in the league, and he’ll be going against some real big boys who won’t let him dunk. He also can’t close games, with that horrendous 50% free throw shooting.

It’s all down to Chris Paul. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. But he’s not going against Fisher and Blake this season. He’ll be going against Tony Allen and Mike Conley, the best defensive backcourt in the league.

The Grizzlies are not without their own questions. Zach Randolph has been far from inspiring since rejoining the team. And his belated insertion means the Grizzlies will suffer chemistry problems. Also, Marc Gasol has fatigued considerably in recent weeks, and may no longer be the dominant force we saw early this season and in last year’s playoffs.

It shouldn’t matter.

Eastern Conference: I’m far less knowledgeable on the East than the West — rarely watch it — so if I manage to drum up a strong opinion on something, you might be better off ignoring it.

Bulls (-1300) v. Sixers (+900): The Sixers stumbled into the playoffs, amid noises the team was quitting on Doug Collins. Doesn’t say much for their chances of an upset, does it?

On the other hand, the Bulls have played better this year without Derrick Rose than with him. And unfortunately for them, Rose is back. And he’s not even fully healthy.

I’m being facetious (a little). Rose won’t hurt the Bulls until they play the Heat.

Celtics (-190) v. Hawks (+170): Another somewhat surprisingly close line. But in this case it can partially be explained by the fact that the Hawks have homecourt. Can the Horford-less Hawks really beat the Allen-less Celtics? (Allen is expected to play, but his ankle is beyond bad.)

I don’t really know. Have I even watched a Hawks game this year? (I don’t count Mark Jackson-coached Warriors games as real basketball games.)

I don’t care. I’m betting the Celtics, on the principle that home court ain’t no thang when you’ve got the better team.

Pacers (-900) v. Magic (+700): The Pacers lost the regular season matchup against the Magic 3-1.  So why are the Pacers 9-1 favorites in this series?

You know why.

Heat (-1100) v. Knicks (+700): Melo v. Lebron! In the playoffs!

BDiddy back in primetime! He won’t get turned over 7 times by Mario Chalmers like Jeremy Lin.

This series could very well be fascinating to watch. Certainly more than that series price indicates. The Mike Woodson Knicks are one of the best defensive teams in the league (though the return of Stoudemire has thrown a wrench in that). They are big and physical and won’t let the Heat bully them.

Do Stoudemire and Baron Davis have enough in the tank for one big playoff series?

I don’t think the Knicks can win — unless of course Wade gets re-injured, a very real possibility. But they could wind up scaring Heat bettors. And I do think they might be worth a bet or two, taking the points, in must-win games.

Since April Giants baseball was (correctly) pre-empting April Warriors basketball, I watched the national broadcast. There, I got to listen to Chris Mullin tell us what a good coach Mark Jackson is going to be. And got to listen in on the huddle to hear Mark Jackson tell the boys to please play defense.

The Joy of Tanking.

I’ll try not to discuss what actually happened in the game — we all know that’s not the point of April Warriors basketball — but here’s a couple of talking points:

Klay Thompson: I know it’s not fair, but I find myself watching him most intently on the defensive end. And wondering just how much Andrew Bogut will improve his game.

I continue to believe that you can’t win in the NBA without a two-way shooting guard.

And judging by the minutes Thompson has been getting, Mark Jackson might share that belief. Thompson has reached 30 minutes in only two of the last nine games. That’s somewhat curious at this time of year isn’t it, particularly given Lacob’s desire to push him into ROY recognition?

Jeremy Tyler:  I was utterly startled by a couple of Tyler’s recent box scores while I was out of town. Points. Rebounds. Blocked Shots. Could Tyler really have promise as an NBA player?

I didn’t see any evidence of it in this game. What I saw was an inability to finish inside, force Hickson left, find good rebounding position, defend without fouling, or understand at all what is unfolding on the floor.

Maybe someone can fill me in on the previous games.

I’ve seen a few pundits speculating about whether Tyler could play power forward in the NBA. I’ll make this simple.

No. Not ever.

Like Kwame Brown, it’s center or bust.

Charles Jenkins: I don’t know if I have ever seen a point guard who is more deliberate in the paint. Not since Mark Jackson, at any rate.

It can be very interesting to watch, but at times I start to channel my inner football coach. North South dammit! Hit the damn hole!

I’ve also been starting to wonder whether Jenkins can go left.  His handle is far superior to Jeremy Lin’s, but I’m afraid the answer is no. Like Lin, no finish.

Jeremy Lin: I was sad to see Lin get injured, but I have to say that I was not surprised. During Linsanity, I watched him continously force his way into the lane and throw himself into opposing big men to draw contact. It was effective, and certainly calculated to please coaches of the Keith Smart and Mark Jackson tier, but it was not a great recipe for longevity.

As Dwayne Wade and perhaps now Derrick Rose too have discovered.

Lamar Odom:  Now that Odom fever has hit the Bay, let’s at least get one part of the discussion straight:

Lamar Odom is not a small forward.

He is a power forward.  Someone needs to get this news to Bob Fitzgerald ASAP.

Odom began to find himself as a player when Pat Riley traded for him, and installed him at the four for the Heat. He put up 17 and 10 in 2004.

After the Lakers traded for Gasol, Phil Jackson had a choice of Odom, Vlad Rad, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujecic to play the three. Whom did he choose?

He chose Vlad Rad, with Walton backing up.  Lamar Odom is a four, and one of the best fours in the league. He averaged close to 10 rebounds a game for the Lakers, coming off the bench.  He defended the rim. Ran the high post. Spread the floor.

Even thinking about playing him at the three — as Rick Carlisle unfortunately did — is a travesty.  His mediocre outside shooting doesn’t help you at the three, he can’t beat threes off the dribble the way he beats bigs, and he can’t guard threes. Period.

Now that we’ve got that straight, speculate away.

Here’s my take: He would look absolutely great alongside David Lee in a small ball unit.

But Joe Lacob doesn’t know what a spread four is.

The Monta Ellis Milwaukee Bucks:  The Bucks lost a heartbreaker at home to the Knicks last night, which unfortunately puts their playoff hopes on life support.  Monta haters will make hay of this. (Some have already dismissed his 35 points on 14-25, 10 assist, 6 rb, 4 steal line against Iman Shumpert and Tyson Chandler by pointing to his -8. I would think they might want to direct their attention to Klay Thompson’s -18 first.)

I think the Buck’s lack of real success since the trade can be attributed to three things. 1) Extremely ill-timed injuries to Drew Gooden, Ilysasova and Delfino. That’s their entire front line, and they had all been playing well. 2) The difficulty of assimilating new players late in the season. Monta has been extremely deferential to Brandon Jennings, and Skiles doesn’t trust Udoh on offense. 3) Their general talent deficit. Even with Monta and everyone healthy, its pretty hard to say the Bucks have more talent than any team above them. Impossible, in fact.

And then there’s the Brandon Jennings problem. I absolutely hate Jennings as a basketball player, and I’m pretty sure Skiles does too. Jennings’ Bucks career has reached an end, and I have a sneaking suspicion his days as an NBA starter may be nearing an end as well.

Since the trade, Monta has averaged 6 assists and a better than 2:1 ast/to ratio while playing for a brand new team, and sharing the backcourt with Jennings. Which has only cemented what I already feel about him.

If I were an NBA GM, I would give Monta Ellis a max contract to run my team. And be confident I was getting a better point guard than Tony Parker, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook.

Is Monta willing to play the point? The beginning of next season might provide a clue. It could be the showcase to end all showcases.

Frisco Joe and Dodger Pete:  This week brought the news that 1) the Warriors have eliminated the Giants as a “middleman,” and are looking at their own site on the SF waterfront; 2) the second oldest franchise in D-league history, and most strongly supported, is on its way out of North Dakota to the sunny shores of Santa Cruz; and

3) Warriors co-owner Peter Guber just bought a piece of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

All three of these news items are of a piece to me. They all resonate within me the same way. And I’m a little curious why more isn’t being made of at least this last item in the media.

I guess that’s what I’m for.

I say: Really?                          

I say: Show me the money. Where is it? Has Lacob ever signed a veteran to a multi-year contract? Ever gone over the cap? Ever ponied up for a veteran coach? (Mark Jackson: 3 years, $6 million; Rick Adelman: 5 years, $25 million.) Ever amnestied a chronically injured and completely washed up player?

Show me one bit of evidence that Joe Lacob is willing to spend money to win. One scrap.

Next year will be the test. Joe Lacob got his big deal. Remade the team in his image. Ramped up his PR: “The transformative deal that changes everything.” Let’s see if that finally makes him ready to open his wallet in support of his Warriors team. I have created a  checklist for Joe Lacob, that if he completes it, will cause me to open my ears to the message of his paid minions. It’s a very simple checklist, containing a mere two items:

1. Buyout Andris Biedrins, and his not-quite-completely-covered-up chronic case of Osteitis Pubis.
2. Re-sign Brandon Rush.

Brandon Rush is quite possibly the most undervalued player in the NBA. He’s a bench player, who could be a starter for half of the teams in the league. More than half. He’s a two-way player. A guy who on offense can stick with the league leaders in three-point percentage, as well as take it to the rim and finish with authority. A guy who can drop a 9-15 on Kobe Bryant, Matt Barnes, MWP and the Lakers front line. While making you believe he could do it every night.

A guy who plays some of the most ferocious wing defense in the league. Takes the toughest player. Forces him into bad shots. Blocks shots at the rim. And rebounds in traffic like a forward.

Rush has a court presence like few other guards in the league. A Paul Pierce-like presence. At 6-6″ 210, he can get his shot off in the playoffs. And he can guard anyone. He is as potentially valuable to the Warriors as Tony Allen is to the Grizzlies. James Harden is to the Thunder. Or Stephen Jackson was to that World Championship Spurs team.

I have a feeling that the Warriors brass think that Richard Jefferson can take over for Rush. That there’s not enough room on their payroll for both of them. That would be a big mistake. Brandon Rush needs to be in a Warriors uniform next season.

He’s a restricted free-agent this summer. Lets see if the Warriors match.

Let’s see if the moths start flying out of Joe Lacob’s wallet.

Charles Jenkins:  I hope you like Jenkins, because he will be the Warriors backup point guard next year. If the last two years have proven anything about Joe Lacob, it’s that he doesn’t believe in spending money on backup point guards. And backup point guards don’t come any cheaper than 2nd round pick Charles Jenkins.

Having said that, I really like this kid. In a walk it up, set up the half court offense, make the wing entry pass, head to the fridge for a Fat Tire, return to the couch, watch him swish the return pass, kind of way.

He’s the anti-Nate Robinson.

Klay Thompson:  Mike Brown made quite a clever move in this game: Using his small forwards MWP and Matt Barnes to guard Thompson, and putting Kobe on Dorell Wright. Until Mark Jackson got his small unit on the floor, Thompson was really bothered by this. He couldn’t drive into the Lakers’ trees, and couldn’t  comfortably shoot over the length of the Lakers’ small forwards.

And, of course, Dorell Wright was completely incapable of punishing Kobe for this switch in the low post. Or any other shooting guard for that matter.

This could be a blueprint for Warriors’ opponents going forward.

Thompson never got his shot going in the Lakers game, but did do a great job creating for others. He has a ton of composure for a rookie.

He has asserted himself twice against inferior opponents since the trade. Can he do it against the tough defenses of the contenders? In fourth quarters? It will get a lot easier if and when Curry returns.

On defense, Jackson did his best to hide Thompson with zones and Steve Blake. Just keeping it real.

Jeremy Tyler v. Mickell Gladness: Age, Size, Athleticism, Vertical Leap, Contract Amount. Tyler has Gladness out-classed in every key metric. Except the most important:

IQ.

Mark Jackson: In the days since the trade, it has begun to occur to me that I may owe Mark Jackson an apology for calling for his head while he was starting Dom McGuire at shooting guard, and holding the Warriors to fewer than 5 fast-break points and 85 total points a game.

No, not because that made any sort of sense. It didn’t, and still doesn’t. It’s because it probably wasn’t in Mark Jackson’s control.

Does it make any sort of sense to you that Klay Thompson was immediately worthy of starting at shooting guard once Monta was traded, but he wasn’t worthy of starting in the games immediately preceding the trade, when Curry was out and Monta was playing the point and the Warriors were theoretically competing for a playoff spot?

No, it doesn’t make sense to me either. And it got me thinking. Ekpe Udoh starting at center, Andris Biedrins to the second unit. Monta Ellis at the point, and the only offensive player in the backcourt.

The Warriors were showcasing.

And tanking, of course. Sorry, coach.

Red Card:  Did anyone else happen to notice that play where Ron Artest fell out of bounds under the basket on top of — I think it was Jefferson — and then held him down with a hand in the chest until after the play was over?

I did the same thing once when playing high school soccer (which may help explain my spiritual affinity for players like Artest and Stephen Jackson). And I got a red card for it.  No yellow — straight to the red. I was pretty ticked off, because it was still early in the first half of a road game, and it was a two hour bus trip between opponents in rural Ohio.

Of course, Artest didn’t get a red card. He didn’t even get a foul, although the official was looking right at him, and he was on the road.

Because the Lakers never have a road game.

WTF:  Did anyone else notice that at the end of the game, when the camera was following Kobe Bryant off the court (because the Lakers never have a road game), it caught Kobe and Violet Palmer exchanging a low five? Check the tape.

wtf. I demand an investigation.

Spring Break:  I’m heading to Vegas and my fantasy baseball draft, and then points South for the next couple of weeks, so I won’t be able to watch the next several Warriors games. I will try to  check in on the comments section, though, to see what’s what.

Hasta la vista. And let’s go Warriors! Kings!

I did have a couple of thoughts during the Rockets game, though. Persistent, disturbing thoughts involving a couple of the Rockets’ players.

The presence of Samuel Dalembert in the middle — a real, live, shot-blocking, NBA defensive center — completely shut down Mark Jackson’s walk-it-up offense. Sam Dalembert is clearly no Chris Kaman. He can play. Does his name ring a bell? He was the last free-agent center off the board this past summer.  Signed by the Rockets for $7 million per AFTER the Warriors plunked down $7 million on the The Kwame Brown Era.

Why am I the only Warriors writer who has been asking whether the Warriors really needed to trade Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh — and tank this season — in order to land a defensive center?

Goran Dragic also disturbed me, as I watched him surgically dismember Nate Robinson, and eat him alive. Dragic is something you might not be familiar with, since he’s something the Warriors have not had for two long seasons, ever since Joe Lacob assumed his position as GM.

A veteran backup point guard. You know, the kind of player some GMs like to put on their roster before the season starts, to indicate their intention to win basketball games.

That’s all I’ve got on Warriors basketball. I’m not going to be recapping any more Warriors games for awhile. It puts a real sour taste in my mouth to write about a team whose management has actively tanked their season. And I just don’t have the heart for it any more. Been there, done that.

Anyway, my writing around this time of year has a tendency to deteriorate into rants involving knives and backs, which you can verify if you like by reading my posts about Joe Lacob’s Tanked Season Number One in last year’s archives. So consider yourselves lucky. You’re welcome.

You also may have noticed that I’ve removed the TiqIQ widget from my sidebar. I don’t want to be in the business of selling Warriors tickets right now. It’s a lousy business. Doesn’t feel right.

I’m not going away, though.  There’s a lot more exciting basketball to watch this season.  I’ll be tuning in to the Denver Nuggets, the Milwaukee Bucks, the San Antonio Spurs, the OKC Thunder and the Miami Heat. To watch some beautiful, uptempo, spread-floor, creative basketball, directed by coaches of great intelligence and accomplishment. Winning basketball, that has fully integrated the advances to the game that Don Nelson made during his brilliant career. Playoff basketball.

Yes, I’ll be wallowing in “the sins of the past.”

I will of course continue to share my thoughts on the Warriors — such as they are — in the comments section. I greatly enjoy the basketball discussion that has (mysteriously to me) built itself up on my eccentric and crabby little site. A big thank you to all my readers for that.

I’ll be back recapping Warriors games next season.

At least for the first part of the season.

You know, maybe Joe Lacob was right after all….

Maybe I’m not a real fan.

Let’s be real: Klay Thompson has no chance of becoming rookie of the year. Zero. None. Unless of course, Joe Lacob trades Monta Ellis. Does Lacob know something we don’t? — Feltbot, The Klay Thompson Problem, 12-21-2011.

One thing this trade is not is shocking. It’s something we all knew was coming from day one, when Joe Lacob told us that running teams can’t win in the playoffs, that the “architecture” of the team needed fixing, and that the culture needed changing. And that Stephen Curry and David Lee were the core of the Warriors, and Monta Ellis something else.                                       

Over the course of the last two years, the message that Monta was on the way out was delivered continuously, in even the smallest of the Warriors’ decisions.  No effort was ever made to sign the kinds of veteran back-up players that would have given the Warriors core a chance to compete.  Just the opposite in fact: At last year’s trading deadline, the Warriors sole backup center was shipped out for a second round pick.  Lacob wasn’t interested in winning, he was interested in draft picks, the higher the better. And, as he told us, he wasn’t interested in the little deals that could be used to build around the Warriors core. He was hunting a “big deal.”

A big deal involving whom?  There could be only one answer.

When Klay Thompson was drafted — a player who could provide no immediate help to the Warriors as constructed, unlike Markieff Morris, Kawhi Leonard or Kenneth Faried – all pretence that Monta Ellis might remain a Warrior disappeared for good. You could practically hear the clanging of the prison doors opening. Monta Ellis the Warrior was a dead man walking.

Joe Lacob finally got his big deal. The deal that he joyously compared to Kevin Garnett going to the Celtics. “The transcendant deal that changes everything.”

Methodology:  This was one of the most difficult trades I have ever attempted to analyze. That has to do partly with the fact that it involves players of different positions.  Partly that the players involved have all shown signs of greatness, but have never played in ideal systems on good teams. Partly that all are so young, and can be viewed as still developing. Monta Ellis still just 26(!), Ekpe Udoh 24, Andrew Bogut 27.  Partly that Bogut’s injury problems are so concerning.

And a great deal of the difficulty has to do as well with basketball philosophy. If, along with Joe Lacob, you subscribe to the belief that running teams cannot win titles, you will view this trade in a very different light than someone who doesn’t hold that belief. I think everyone already knows what my own thoughts on the subject are. But if you don’t, you certainly will after reading this post.

What I’ve wound up doing is something similar to the way I wrote about the Mark Jackson hire.  Simply looked at the trade from the multitude of different angles that occurred to me. With apologies for the length, and my scattered thoughts, here we go:

The “You Have to Make This Trade” Angle:  We have been hearing a lot that when you have a chance to trade smalls for a legitimate big in the NBA, you absolutely have to do it. Good smalls can be replaced. But big players of Andrew Bogut’s quality are extraordinarily rare. The Warriors had no choice but to do this deal.

But they did have a choice, didn’t they? The Warriors have known since 2009 that Andris Biedrins has developed a chronic condition called Osteitis Pubis, and will never again resemble the player he once was. Joe Lacob had a choice at the beginning of this season. He could have amnestied Andris Biedrins and signed Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan. Signed some veteran backup players. Signed a veteran coach like Rick Adelman — or Mike D’Antoni  – who not only believes in playing up-tempo, but knows how to coach it. And had the Warriors pointed at the top of the Western Conference standings. This season.

Lacob really didn’t want you to think about that, which is why he immediately wasted his amnesty on Charlie Bell, using the cover of his Kabuki Theatre attempt at DeAndre Jordan. And sent his mouthpieces out with a talking point he knew wasn’t true: the resurgence and return to glory of Andris Biedrins.

The outcome of this Warriors trade won’t be clear for some time. But one thing we can be clear on, right now, are the actual reasons that this trade was made. They are not the same reasons currently being spouted by the Warriors brass, and being dutifully regurgitated by the main-stream media.

The reasons are these:

1) Lacob was too cheap… errrr,  financially constrained by his outstanding loan to the league and his investment partners to have eaten Andris Biedrins’ contract;

2) Lacob doesn’t believe running teams can win in the playoffs;

3) Lacob believes in Stephen Curry as a core player, and wants Curry to be the face of the Warriors franchise (something I don’t happen to disagree with); and

4) As a result, Lacob wanted to trade Monta Ellis for a big man, from the very moment he took over the Warriors. And he finally got a taker.

The “The Warriors Finally Have a Legitimate Center!” Angle:  For the first time in 30 years! Since Nate Thurmond! We’ve been hearing a lot about this since the trade went down. The Warriors finally have something they’ve lacked for decades!

They also have something the 1975 World Champion Golden State Warriors lacked. And the Dave Cowens Celtics and Willis Reed Knicks that went through Kareem Abdul Jabbar and Wilt Chamberlain for titles. And the Ben Wallace Pistons that went through Shaq for a title.

Not to mention the 2012 Miami Heat (33-11) and OKC Thunder (34-11).

The “What the Milwaukee Bucks Get” Angle:

1) A playoff run.

Some people always come down on the side of tanking.  In fact, there are fans and members of the media in Milwaukee right now who don’t like this trade because it makes the Bucks better. They would much rather have the Bucks tank into the lottery, than actually watch them play in the playoffs. (These people would have loved the last two Warriors seasons.)

I’m not like that. I love playoff chases. Live for them. Regret every one that slips away, that isn’t chased with fervor, that’s actively tanked. Because you’ll never get that year back. That possibility of seeing individuals transformed by shared desire into teams. That possibility for magic.

I’m the kind of person who feels that when you have a team that is three games out of the eight seed at the trading deadline, there are alternatives to tanking. In the spring of 2007, Don Nelson stood before the media and stated “I have failed as a coach.” And thus was born We Believe.

I’m very glad that season wasn’t tanked.

I like teams that pursue greatness gradually and persistently, without ever blowing themselves up mid-season to get where they’re going. Like Don Nelson’s teams. And Greg Popovich’s teams. Teams that chase the dream, with a process that doesn’t disrespect the fans, who come into every season trying to believe the expectations that are being sold to them. And with a process that doesn’t disrespect the players, like the unnamed Warrior who was quoted in the locker room after the trade: “Does this mean we’re giving up on the season?”

Which team do you feel like watching for the rest of this season? The Milwaukee Bucks or the Golden State Warriors?  Maybe you’re a little bit like me. Maybe a part of you is interested in watching We Believe II, even if it has to be another team.

2) One year of Monta Ellis.

Let’s be clear. Monta Ellis is not going to remain a Buck, and the Bucks know that. Monta has an opt-out in 2013, which he is going to use — in all probability, if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly — to join Dwight Howard.

Which means that Monta Ellis will in all probability be traded by next year’s trading deadline.  For…

3) Draft picks and players.

Add what the Bucks get for Monta next year to this year’s playoff run when calculating the Bucks’ total return.

4) Ekpe Udoh (See The Worst Trade in Warriors History, below).

The “What the Warriors Get” Angle:

1) Another tanked season. (see What the Bucks Get, part one, above.)

2) A statistically significant shot at a lottery pick, in a good year.

3) Richard Jefferson. (More on him below.)

4) The Spurs first round draft pick. It should be noted that the mere act of trading Stephen Jackson to the Spurs should make this pick slightly less valuable, by improving the Spurs record.  Besides being a great player (assuming he’s still got gas in the tank), and a Popovich and Duncan favorite, Jack fills a real need for the Spurs at starting two-guard. His presence will allow Ginobili to come off the bench, and Kawhi Leonard to take Jefferson’s spot at the three.  Two big time stoppers on the wings.

Why do I find the under-the-radar Spurs so intriguing this season?

5) Andrew Bogut.

The Andrew Bogut Angle: I’ll say this in the way I know everyone is looking for from me:  Yes, Don Nelson would have loved having Andrew Bogut.  The 2007-8 version, at any rate. How could he not?  He loved the 2007 Andris Biedrins, didn’t he, called him the second best center he’d ever had after Bob Lanier.

Like the Biedrins of old, Bogut’s calling card has always been his defense. He’s an extraordinary defensive center, one of the very best in the league. Super high IQ. Not only positions himself well, but vocally captains the team, making sure his teammates are positioned correctly as well. Blocks shots. Takes charges. Protects the rim.  Good rebounder. All that good stuff. Just what the doctor ordered for the Warriors.

He’s not quite as good on offense, unfortunately. On the plus side, he’s completely unselfish and a very good passer for a big man.  He has good hands, and has shown some ability in the pick and roll.  Maybe that’s where the Warriors will use him.

But he’s just not very good at generating his own offense. Even in his prime he was not that good. Didn’t run the floor well. Didn’t shoot well. Didn’t play the low post well. Most years, he was barely over 50% shooting, which is very mediocre for a center. And 60% from the free throw line.

And he’s gotten significantly worse on offense as his injury problems have piled up in recent seasons.

Most of the current talk surrounding Bogut’s injuries have to do with the one that’s keeping him off the floor right now: his broken ankle. But that’s not the injury that concerns me.  I’m concerned about that right elbow he shattered in April of 2010.  The one that caused him great pain in 2011, leading to a second surgery. Is it fully healed?

I have my doubts. I have read rumors that he still can’t fully extend that arm. And I note that his shooting percentage dipped to 49.5 after his first surgery, but was all the way down to 44.9 after 12 games in this season, after the second surgery that was supposed to clear up the problem.

44.9% ??? That is an utterly godawful shooting percentage for a center. Some 2012 comparisons: Tyson Chandler 69.4; DeAndre Jordan 62.6; Andris Biedrins 61.4; Kwame Brown 52.5.

We have heard some noises from Gary St. Jean and the Warriors brass about what Bogut can do for the Warriors on offense.  I have some doubts, to put it mildly.  Shoot the 15 footer?  I don’t think so, not any more.  Play the high post?  Bogut is a very good passing big man, but the whole point of the high post is to pull the opposing big man out of the lane.  Can Bogut do that without being able to shoot?

What about the low post? This is where I believe Joe Lacob and Mark Jackson might wind up bitterly disappointed. I think I heard Lacob giving voice in an interview to his vision of Bogut forcing double teams in the low post, and passing out to the Warriors superb three point shooters.

Unfortunately, this vision could prove to be a fantasy. Because Bogut has never really perfected his post moves, which was a big source of frustration for Scott Skiles. And his desire to even play out of the low post waned considerably after his injury, which was another source of frustration. Was it a lack of effectiveness and confidence that kept Bogut out of the low post, or a desire to shield his injured arm? Whichever it was, Warriorsworld.net noted that Bogut was shooting a wretched 36.2% from the low post this season before his ankle injury. Is that kind of efficiency something you want to go to? Something likely to draw double teams?

I’m thinking pick and roll is the answer.  Bogut can catch the pass at the free throw line and thunder for the slam. Or pass to the slashing David Lee. Or feed Dorell Wright and Klay Thompson at the three point line.

That’s a summation of Andrew Bogut as a basketball player. Flawed, yes. But still an upper echelon defensive center who will fill a big need for the Warriors with respect to size, shot-blocking and rebounding.

But can he remain a basketball player?  Can he keep himself on the floor?

The word from the Warriors brass and Bogut himself is that his elbow and ankle injuries were the result of freak accidents, and not indications that he is chronically injury prone.

OK then, what about the stress fracture in his back that caused him to miss 40+ games in 2009? How about that? Caused by a freak accident?

The truth of the matter is that Andrew Bogut IS injury prone. He is susceptible to bone fractures. And those injuries have not only cost him serious time off the court, but have begun to severely limit his production while on the court. And they’ve begun to hurt not just his physical approach to the game, but also his mental approach.

Which brings me back to his relationship with Scott Skiles.  By all accounts, a serious rift opened up between Skiles and Bogut the year after Bogut came back from his first elbow surgery. Bucks’ GM John Hammonds and Skiles apparently felt that Bogut had returned to the team out of shape and was dogging it. Bogut’s version was that he was playing through great pain, and was, well, depressed.

“That was the most frustrating part,” he said. “Then it (affects) you mentally and you’re not as aggressive offensively and then I’d have games where I had three or four points. That was something I was trying to work through during the season that really frustrated me.”

Skiles’ version had a slightly different spin:

“He’s got to improve his post moves, his foot work and his speed up and down the floor,” said Skiles. “He’s got to get in better condition. This was a year that was obviously very difficult on him, trying to come back from that injury and hopefully he can put that all behind him and have a good summer working on his skill set and come back better.”

“He said early in the season that he didn’t think he was going to be 100% all year long and so hopefully this will be it. He’ll have a great summer and come back energized and ready to go.”

The acrimony between the two sides eventually grew so great that they apparently stopped communicating with each other completely. Except in the press, of course. After Bogut had his second elbow surgery, he showed up to a press conference with the removed bone chips in a medical jar, and said, “I wasn’t exaggerating when I said I was in pain.”

Hmmm. An old school coach and a chronically injured center who’s not playing up to expectations. A growing rift, gleefully chronicled in the press, that leads to a firing or a trade.

Does that remind you of anything?

Perhaps I’m being overly pessimistic.  Perhaps it’s not reasonable to look at Bogut’s injury plagued seasons between the ages of 21 and 27, and wonder whether his seasons between the ages of 28 and 34 will be any healthier. Perhaps my mind shouldn’t travel back to the Trailblazers’ purgatory of Walton, and Bowie, and Oden.  Or think about all the other big men in NBA history, who once started down the serious injury path, fell into irreversible decline. Like the one currently stinking up the Warriors’ roster.

Maybe I should tear my eyes away from Bogut’s stats from this season, at the start of which he pronounced himself to be in terrific shape.  44.9% from the field, 8.3 rebounds.

And I should definitely stop thinking about this next section that I’m about to write.

The Worst Warriors Trade in History Angle:  OK, take it easy, I’m just riffing. I am not saying that’s what this trade is. I’m not even going to say that this was a bad trade. It should certainly improve the Warriors in the short term, as it fills one gaping hole in their roster, without creating another. And I’m hopeful it will improve them in the long term, as well. Like every other Warriors fan, I have no real idea how this trade will work out, and I have my fingers crossed.

I do, however, think that there is a small, but nonetheless statistically significant possibility that this trade will turn out so horribly that it will be discussed forever.  Like Robert Parish and Kevin McHale for Joe Barry Carroll.

And because this possibility is on my mind, and for no other reason, I’m going to share my thoughts on it with you. Here are the 5 things that would have to happen for this trade to be viewed in future years as a disaster for the Warriors:

1) The tank doesn’t work, and the Warriors don’t get their lottery pick back.

2) Bogut electrifies next season, earning himself a nice big fat extension, after which his injury problems return, and he re-stiffafies.

3) Monta Ellis decides to become a superstar.

Say what?

Monta Ellis decides to become a superstar. I believe it is within his control. In my opinion, what he needs to do to become a superstar is: 1) Decide to play point guard 2) for a title contender.

Both of these options will be available to him when he opts out after next season. They’ll be made available by Dwight Howard.

When and if that happens, I think Monta will immediately become recognized as one of the top ten players in the league, at any position.

Preposterous? Can’t see it? Just as an exercise, imagine along with me what would happen if you took League MVP Derrick Rose off of the Bulls, and put Monta in his place.

What would happen? In my opinion, not much. I think Monta Ellis is a better shooter, better passer and better defender than Rose. What is Rose better at?  Better handle, perhaps. But then Monta Ellis has needed to force his offense through clogged lanes against triple teams these last few years. Better shot selection? Same answer:  the Warriors have needed Monta to force his offense. And then there’s this curious stat:  Career shooting percentage:  Rose 46.6.  Monta 46.5. Better at getting to the foul line? Yes, 6.3 FTA to Monta’s 5 this season. But does that stay the same when Monta’s playing on a strong 5-man team that must be guarded at every position? When he’s a recognized star on one of the NBA’s darlings?

4) Monta Ellis wins a championship.

Impossible? Don’t tell Dwight Howard, he might want to get some money down with you.

5) Ekpe Udoh becomes an All-NBA defensive player.

Impossible?

Readers of this blog already know what I’ve seen in Udoh.  The genius level hoops IQ, on both sides of the ball. It is clear to me that he’s studied tape of the best defensive centers in the league, as well as the footwork of Hakeem Olajuwon on the offensive end. If he takes to studying a little Dennis Rodman tape, and figures out that undersized rebounding thing, I think his upside is unlimited.

That could be a long shot.  But he is going to spend the next couple of years getting a masters class in rebounding from a couple of undersized studs: MBam and Ilyasova.

What if Ekpe Udoh turns into Ben Wallace on the defensive end? Just to mention one other 6-9″ (some say 6-7″) power forward whom no one believed was a center. Until it was too late.

Maybe I’m out of my head with my opinion of Ekpe Udoh.  But if so, at least I’m in good company. When Bucks GM John Hammond got on the phone with Monta Ellis the night of the trade, Ellis told him:

Ekpe Udoh is a very special player. He might be the steal of this trade.

OK, if you’re a stat phreak and so inclined, multiply the separate probabilities of each of these five things occurring, to reach the final probability that Warriors fans’ minds will be melted in the near future. Just as an intellectual exercise, of course.

The Stephen Jackson for Richard Jefferson Angle: I am a huge and unrepentant fan of Stephen Jackson, as my regular readers know. I won’t go into the reasons here — you can find them in the archives, if interested.

But after reflection, I don’t really mind the Jackson for Jefferson trade. It seems to fit both teams.  The Warriors have committed to Klay Thompson at the two.  There would be no starting role for Jackson here, which wouldn’t sit well with him.  But assuming he can still play, I think he will ultimately become the starting two for the Spurs, with no disruption to their chemistry. Ginobili is comfortable coming off the bench. And Jack will be playing for a title on the Spurs, which is what he lives for.

As for Richard Jefferson, it will be interesting to see who Mark Jackson chooses as his starting small forward.  I used to think Jefferson was a terrific player, back when he was on the Nets.  Ran the floor hard, finished thunderously, defensive stopper.

All of that has diminished considerably, to the point where Pop spent one first round draft pick on his replacement, and another in getting rid of him. But he’s still a pretty decent player. If grossly overpaid.

Weaknesses: Horrible mid-range game, doesn’t pass well, doesn’t rebound as well as DWright. For these reasons I give the starting nod to Wright.

Strengths: Three point shooting, over 40% the last two years. Good defender. Physical size and strength. Versatility.

By versatility, I mean that the Warriors have finally picked up a small-ball spread-four, which is where Pop frequently played him.  At 6-7″ 220+, Jefferson fills the bill.

And fills what has been a glaring need on this Warriors team. Watch what happens with the David Lee pick and roll if Curry returns, and Jefferson is at the four.

And then, of course, there is that second round, err… first round Spurs draft pick.  That will come in handy when filling out the Warriors bench next year.

The Warriors Bench Angle: As I’m sure you noticed, the Warriors have been quite intent on adding draft picks. In addition to the Spurs pick, I believe they outright purchased a low second rounder from the Hawks. And they’re really, really hoping to add one more, of a higher variety.

I’m guessing, that with all the salary they’ve just added, the Warriors plan to stuff their bench with cheap rookies.  Will Nate Robinson and Brandon Rush be re-signed?  I feel that’s highly unlikely at this point.

One of the talking points that Larry Riley has been hitting hard when discussing the trade, is that it proves that Joe Lacob is willing to spend money to win.

Oh really?  I’ll believe that, when and if Lacob goes over the cap to re-sign Rush, add a veteran point guard, and fill the hole left by Udoh’s departure.

The Curry/Ellis Backcourt.  In his post-trade interview, Lacob graciously pointed out that the Curry and Ellis backcourt had never been given a real chance. They had never gotten to play with a legitimate big man to protect them.

What he neglected to mention was that he didn’t believe in the backcourt from the get-go, and was instrumental in denying it the help it needed.

If nothing else, Joe Lacob is a master of the PR game.

The Norm Nixon Angle (aka The Giving the Keys to the Franchise to Stephen Curry Angle):

In his memoir, Jerry West wrote this of his decision to trade Norm Nixon from the Lakers:

We parted company with Norm Nixon, an extremely popular player whom I had coached for two years. (Jack Nicholson not only lobbied me not to trade Norm but wore black in mourning when we did.) …. [T]here was a conflict and it needed to be resolved. Norm wanted to handle the ball as much as possible, but we needed Magic to do that. Magic without the ball was merely Earvin, a Monet without his brush. When Magic was out for a period of time with an injury, it was difficult for Norm to give up the ball when Magic returned. And it was nearly impossible for Norm to prevent his unhappiness from becoming known.

Did Jerry West relate this anecdote to Joe Lacob, and compare the situation to that of Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry?  I think we can safely assume that he did.

And as much as I like to think that Curry and Ellis could have formed a great backcourt together in the mold of Frazier and Monroe, Nash and van Exel, Kidd and Barea and Terry, maybe there was some truth to this angle behind the scenes.

Who knows? Certainly not me, I’m not an insider. I just know that I saw no selfishness on the court between these two players in the last two years. Not a bit.

And no, I’m not wearing black.

The Kwame Brown Angle: One great upside to this trade is that I can finally let the 2-6 Kwame Brown Era go. There is absolutely no reason why those scorch marks on my soul should be permanent, right?

No way Lacob signs him back.  Right?

Right?

The No Excuses Basketball Team Angle:  Another great upside to this trade, at least from my perspective,  is that for the first time in Joe Lacob’s tenure as GM, the Warriors will truly have no excuses to fall back on. There will be no more saying, “Don’t blame me for the sins of the past.”

Starting next year, of course.

The Warriors Identity Angle:  Have the Warriors gone overnight from one of the fastest teams end to end in the NBA, to one of the slowest?  We know what Skiles thought about Bogut’s ability or willingness to run the court.  David Lee is a great running center, but at power forward he’s no barn burner.  Thompson and Curry in the backcourt — not fast.

OK, so they’re going to win games with their defense, right? Bogut in the middle — great. DWright and Jefferson at the three — good. What about the other three positions? What about that Curry — Thompson backcourt?

See, the thing about that Mark Jackson — Reggie Miller backcourt?  It was backed up by Rik Smits, the Davis brothers and Derrick McKey. Defensive monsters, all. Are David Lee and Dorell Wright/Richard Jefferson made in that same mold? Or are they a different kind of basketball player, requiring a different, more up-tempo kind of system in order to thrive?

What will the Warriors hang their hat on next season?  It won’t be the running game, certainly. I sincerely doubt it will be the low post game. And their defensive identity is far from certain — especially against the running teams like the Heat and Thunder, that currently rule the league.

I’m as curious as anyone to see what Mark Jackson cooks up for our no excuses basketball team. Because it’s a little hard to visualize at the moment.

The Mark Jackson Angle:  What do you do when you have a superb running team, and a coach who has no idea how to use it? Well, you can do what the TWolves and the Trailblazers did, and fire the coach.  Or you can do what Joe Lacob just did, and fire the team.

This trade just might have turned an incompetent NBA coach into a competent one, overnight.  Mark Jackson certainly knows everything in the world there is to know about walking the ball up the court and feeding Rik Smits and Patrick Ewing in the low post.

There’s only one problem with that:  Andrew Bogut in the low post is not the same thing as Rik Smits or Patrick Ewing. Not even close.

I hope Mike Malone can draw up something good for us.

Feltbot’s Angle: I simply don’t know how to pronounce a final judgement on this trade. I’ve layed out what I think are its basic themes. But it’s beyond my capacity to go much further than that. Maybe it will turn out great.

I can say with certainty, though, how this trade has affected me on a personal level: I once had a dream about this Warriors team, and that dream is now dead.

It lasted about a month. It began when Nellie drafted Ekpe Udoh, and traded for David Lee, and scooped up Dorell Wright for peanuts. And visions of the league’s next great running team started filling my mind. A team so fast end-to-end, so highly skilled, so beautiful to watch, that it would inspire a name. Showtime. RunTMC. 7 Seconds or Less. We Believe.

It ended when Joe Lacob bought the Warriors.

Since that moment, I guess I’ve been pretending that it was still alive. Or advocating for it, at any rate, while it still had a pulse. But it never had a pulse. And I knew that, in my heart.

Like Monta Ellis, my dream was a dead man walking.

This trade has brought me back to the real world. The world where Don Nelson and Mike D’Antoni are out of jobs.

And venture capitalists are the GMs.

Mark Jackson:  Fitz got it exactly right for once, when he stated that this game reminded him of the Charlotte game, in that it was decided in the first quarter.

Well, almost exactly right.  Both this game and the Charlotte game were decided before tipoff, when Jackson drew up his lineup card and game plan.  Starting Andris Biedrins against a team playing a PF, SF and SG front line, and two PGs in the backcourt.  Squeezing the air out of the ball on rebounds.  Walking the ball up the court.  I can just imagine Jackson and Malone brainstorming before this game: “We can’t get in a running game against Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, right?  We have to slow it down and beat them with our defense. Right?”

Wrong. Mark Jackson fed his Warriors team a 12 point first quarter. And a blowout on their home floor. Again.

Yes!

And then, because this is a no excuses basketball team, we got treated to another Pastor Jackson post-game presser:  ”They threw all the punches, we threw none.” “We didn’t make them feel us.” “An embarrassing effort.”

Right?

Jim Barnett: Barnett’s griping about the Warriors walking the ball up the court started early in this game.  In the first quarter, in fact.  And lo and behold, Fitz actually joined in, commenting that Skiles would love to play the Warriors in a half-court game. Right again, Fitz! Is that a record?

When the Warriors finally got the small-ball going in the second quarter, leading to a Klay Thompson early offense three, Jim couldn’t control himself.

You see what happens when you let the flow come in?

Love you, Barnett.  Call me.

Monta Ellis: This beautifully controlled performance in the most emotional of all circumstances was the best F*** you that Monta could have delivered to all of the snake oil salesmen stat peddlers and ignoramuses in the media who have criticized his play as selfish and out of control over the years, and who were all smugly predicting to each other on Twitter that he’d go off for 40 in this game.  Monta Ellis never forced his offense out of personal need. He did it out of team need, because for several years he has been playing 40 minutes a game on teams with decimated or intentionally incomplete rosters.

His shot selection wasn’t horrible when he shot 60% for a month playing alongside Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson under Don Nelson.  And it won’t be horrible playing under Scott Skiles on this talented Bucks roster.

I’m going to really enjoy watching him play in the playoffs.

Klay Thompson:  Umm…  the return of Andrew Bogut can’t come soon enough for Klay. To be fair, this was an impossible matchup for him, even when Jackson was trying to hide him on Beno Udrih. But this is a no excuses basketball team. Right? Or is that on hold until next year too? If so, someone should notify Mark Jackson.

MBam’s 10-15:  A direct result of the Warriors’ bigs being pulled away to give help.

Mike Dunleavy:  Is a good basketball player, enjoying a fine season under a good coach who knows how to use him.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson froze him out.

I have to admit to getting some perverse enjoyment at 4:23 4Q, when Dunleavy got Dom McGuire up in the air on a shot fake, and then layed some wood. Ever seen him do that before?

Dom McGuire: Did anyone else see Dom walk right by Bogut, who was offering him a high five after that driving slam to end the third quarter?  I wasn’t really sure whether that was intentional or not.

Until I read McGuire’s post-game comments when asked about the Udoh trade: ”That’s some bullsh-t, I’ll be straight up. I’ma keep it 100.” ”Hey, I ain’t got no say so, but I was happy with my goons.” (Courtesy of @SherwoodStrauss)

I have an opinion now.

The Andrew Bogut Trade Analysis: It’s coming, never fear.  It’s in the final stages of fermentation, and will be the next thing out of my vat.

Which is why I’ll cut this short, and let you take it from here.

I shouldn’t be recapping this game.  I’m in the middle of my long and tortured analysis of the trade for Andrew Bogut.  But I’ve enjoyed the last two games so much — as much as any games this season — that I’ve just got to say a few words.  Plus, the comments on the last thread were getting a little long, and I’ve got a few valued blog members whose web pages are slow to load. So let’s start a new thread with a few brief observations:

The fast break.  The running after made baskets (8:30 1Q — FIRST TIME ALL SEASON — Thank you Beans, you remembered how). The early offense. The spread floor.  The trust in Dorell Wright (another first). Dominic McGuire where he belongs, at the four.  And five.

The spread floor.

The Nellie Ball.

Why in the world did it take until now — until the plug had been pulled on the season — for Mark Jackson to start playing winning basketball?  The style of basketball this roster was designed for?

It makes me want to look up the word “irony” in the dictionary again. I’ve never quite gotten the proper usage of that word.

Klay Thompson:  The man of the hour.  Stepping into the big shoes, on the big stage.  He’s a fabulous offensive player.  The whole package, shooting, handling, passing.  Huge IQ.

That won’t be the issue. Mark Jackson said he “took the challenge” against Ray Allen tonight.  My eyes told me something different: I saw the Warriors giving a lot of help, and Bass and Garnett getting easy buckets as a result.  And I saw Pietrus slipping open for threes.  But that’s quibbling after a game like this. Let’s see what happens.

And I will say this about Thompson’s defense, without reservation: He’s conscientious, and smart. That’s got 75% of the NBA’s two-guards beat right there. Which is why Marco Belinelli got the job in NOLA, and Marcus Thornton got shipped out.

Nate Robinson: Absolutely fabulous game as a point-guard, right up until that final non-fundamental, unnecessarily off-balance three-ball for the win.  Another thing that reminded me of Marco Belinelli.

Am I mistaken, or has the undeniably talented Nate been all business in the last two games? He is in the process of earning his next contract.

It won’t be from Joe Lacob.  He’s tapped capped out.

Brandon Rush: The development in his game this season has been incredible.  The handle.  The aggressive drives.  Those slams in traffic.  The rebounding. Most impressive to me: that crunch time defense on Paul Pierce. Wowza.  You can count the number of players who can do that on the fingers of one hand.

The man has a huge court presence. I’m thinking now that he could not only be a starter in this league, but he could be a starter on a playoff team. What was Larry Bird thinking?  He must be sick right now.  If the Pacers still had Rush, I’d make them a favorite to beat the Bulls in the playoffs. No, I wouldn’t. Yes, I would.

He’s a restricted free agent this summer. Will Joe Lacob re-sign him? Stay tuned for my next post.

Dorell Wright:  Huge defensively and on the boards in this game, as well as his formerly efficient self offensively.  The man can play basketball. When given the chance.

It was good to see him in the fourth quarter, finally. Where has he been? More on that in my next post, as well.

Goose Eggs:  I don’t think he’s a dog.  I think he’s got Osteitis Pubis, and has had since 2009.  I think he wishes he could play better, or that Joe Lacob had bought him out. One of the two.

Sue me.

David Lee:  41 minutes. 22 points, 8 rebounds. 6 stitches.

Soft?

I wonder how long it would take Adam Lauridsen to get back to his keyboard after he got 6 stitches?

Jim Barnett: “[David Lee] has been much more effective against Kevin Garnett than he has against Brandon Bass.”

One of the many, many reasons I love Jim Barnett.

Bob Fitzgerald: Now that the tank is on, Fitz is ten times more relaxed.

And ten times better.

Mark Jackson:  Didn’t throw his team under the bus.  In fact, he seemed downright human.  I think I’m going to enjoy the post-game pressers a lot more from now on.

At least until next season, when once again the Warriors will be a no excuses basketball team.

Or was it because of something else?      

Something simple like taking Dominic McGuire out of his starting shooting-guard role, and playing him where he belongs, on the second unit at power-forward and center?  The Warriors starters were -23 with McGuire at two against the Grizzlies. Hugely negative as well in the four games before that.

But with McGuire out and Hopalong Curry in, the Warriors starters were +8 in the Mavs game, +4 in the Clippers game.  I think you know that the one-footed Curry wasn’t the difference.  Spreading the floor was the difference.

Or was it something simple like taking the ball and chain off of the Warriors’ fast break?  5 fastbreak points against Memphis. 1 against the Raptors.

25 fast break points against the Mavs.  16 against the Clippers.  Looking upcourt after rebounds, outlets to half-court, early offense threes, big men storming the lane.

Simple things like that. Remember those things?

Or maybe it was the return of the David Lee pick and roll, which the Mavs were helpless to defend? Or the glorious nascence of the Udoh pick and roll, which gave the Clippers fits?  Pick and roll is actually possible when you spread the floor.

Here’s a thought:

Maybe it was the coaching.

Monta Ellis:  8 assists against the Mavs, 11 against the Clippers. Not a point guard?  It’s astonishing to me how many people have that opinion.

It’s also astonishing to me how many people think he’s a poor defender. Tell me please, how many NBA point guards can guard Chris Paul and Derrick Rose better than Monta Ellis?

Whichever team winds up with Monta Ellis will be getting an absolute steal.  And if they happen to have a professional GM who knows what a complete roster is, and is trying to win now — and a professional coach who knows what the hell he’s doing, and is willing to play Ellis in a system that maximizes his talents — they’ll be getting a whole lot more:

An all-star. A superstar. A winner.

The Nightmare:  Chris Paul had 5 assists in this game.  This man’s defense on Blake Griffin was the reason why.

It’s his offense that has been in doubt the last couple of seasons. But why? The reason has been made clear in the last few games, in which Udoh’s game has absolutely exploded.

Udoh is not a low post center, he’s a high post center.

Udoh is not a back-to-the-basket center, he’s a face-up center.

Udoh is not a walk-the-ball-up-court center, he’s a running center.

He’s a Don Nelson center.  Who’s been buried under the Keith Smart and Kwame Brown eras.

Here’s what we’ve seen Udoh do on offense in the last few games:

• Take the ball in the high post, and hit the cutters on the hands. Point-center, just like he ran at Baylor.
• Bury the face-up jumper, out to 20 feet.
• Hit a turn-around fade-away jumper.
• Play pick and roll.  10:50 1Q.  And later in the Clipper game, slipping the pick for the easy catch and slam.
• Play pick and pop.  From Ellis at 9:20 3Q.
• Trail the break, and finish with authority.

Here’s something else we’ve been seeing from Udoh, that’s been making me rub my eyes:  Create layups for himself in tight spots using the glass.

Udoh’s footwork in the lane is incredible.  Better right now than 90% of 10 year NBA veterans.  And he just added those up-and-under layups and that turnaround jumper to his jump hook.

In the last two games I have literally started to get tingles from Udoh.  I think I have been witnessing the birth of something…. Or to be more precise, the rebirth of something. Something incredibly special, that’s been gone from the league for a long time. Something distinctly Nigerian in flavor.

The Dream-Shake.

My spidey-sense once told me, after watching one pre-season game, that Stephen Curry had watched hundreds of hours of Steve Nash on tape. Now it’s telling me that late at night, in the privacy of his own home, Ekpe Udoh has been studying someone too.

His countryman, Hakeem Olajuwon.

The Warriors Fast Break:  Lest I forget, Udoh made one other play last night that stood out for me: (3:14 1Q) Udoh rebounds and immediately throws a half-court outlet to Dorell Wright, resulting in an early offense three.

Unless I’m greatly mistaken, that is the first time that Udoh has been allowed to look upcourt after a rebound in his Warriors career.

Jim Barnett: “That’s the way to kick it out!”

Poor Jim.  He must have felt like tearing his eyes from their sockets in the last few games.

I know I did.

David Lee:  Top 5 in scoring, top 5 in rebounding for power forwards. Soft. Overpaid. Just ask Lauridsen.

Out-played Dirk Nowitzki one on one.  How many games in a row is that now?

He got in foul trouble last night, but still managed a great game.  And the foul trouble was the fault of his coach.  Allow me to explain:

Goose Eggs:  Biedrins was -6 to start the second quarter in the Clippers game. Why? Was it his fault? Or was it because he was forced to play against a Clippers small-ball unit featuring Reggie Evans at center and Bobby Simmons at the four?

Look, virtually every non-scoring defensive center in the league is going to get torn up playing against small ball teams.  There is literally no one for them to guard, nothing that they can do. I’ve said it before:  Jackson is killing the Warriors second quarter unit by trying to play Biedrins with it.

He’s also killing the Warriors first unit.  By getting them hurt, and getting them in foul trouble.  Ekpe Udoh is simply not strong enough to hold off the top front lines in the league for 30 minutes.  How many indications of that do you need?  He’s getting hurt, and he’s getting in foul trouble.  And his foul trouble is getting David Lee in foul trouble.

If you want to play Ekpe Udoh 30+ minutes, and if you want to play him big crunch time minutes, then you should be minimizing his early minutes against the monsters, and maximizing his early minutes on the second team.

It was a great decision to completely hold Biedrins out of the Mavericks game.  There are many games in which he simply shouldn’t play.  But games against the Clippers are not those games.  The Clippers are an ideal opponent for Biedrins.

Why?  Because Blake Griffin can’t shoot, has no low-post game, and for that reason struggles badly against bigger players.  Biedrins should have been guarding Griffin to start the first and third quarters, which Jackson might have known if he had bothered to watch TWolves games this year. The great Rick Adelman has dominated Blake Griffin with Darko Milicic. Yes, dominated. With Darko.

Biedrins starts the first and third quarters, no foul trouble.  And maybe no Udoh back trouble either.  Biedrins doesn’t stink up the second quarter, one of the most talented small ball reserve units in the NBA takes over.

It ain’t rocket science.  And it ain’t desire, effort, playing with force, showing up to compete, being aggressive, making no excuses, or any of the other arrant nonsense that has been spewing out of Mark Jackson’s mouth lately either.

It’s coaching.

Dorell Wright:  Maybe this guy can play a little basketball, after all.

It is highly mysterious to me that he is not worthy of being played in the fourth quarter, particularly on nights when he has it going to the tune  of 20 points on 7-10, 4-7 from three, 5 rbs, 2 stls, 1 block.

Flow coach?

Mark Jackson made the terrible mistake — or was it panic? — of putting Dominic McGuire in to play alongside Lee and Udoh in the fourth quarter. At a time when the Clippers were playing small-ball with Griffin and Reggie Evans on the front line.

Idiotic. The Warriors offense completely froze up, just as it has every single time Jackson has started the game with this lineup.

Those are Dorell Wright’s minutes.

Klay Thompson:  I noticed a lot more force and edge to Thompson’s play in the last two games, on both sides of the ball.  On offense, I love it when he takes the ball hard to the hoop.  Last night he even finished one with a slam.

Who is he going to find it easier to beat off the dribble, shooting guards or small forwards?

He’s also picked up his defense — team defense, at any rate.  We’ve seen some aggressive steals.  And in the Mavs game, his most hard-nosed rebounding of the year.  He can get up among the trees, when he wants to.

He can play shooting guard.  But he’s a natural small forward.

Point-forward.

Charles Jenkins:  Ouch.  His play last night reminded me that if Stephen Curry hadn’t gotten injured, Joe Lacob would be going with him and Ish Smith at the back-up point.

Final Thought:  Just how talented is this Warriors team?  Talented enough to blow out the (admittedly tired) defending world champs. Talented enough to spank the Clippers in their own building.

Without Stephen Curry, who if he were healthy just might be their most important player.

Does it make you wonder what if?  What if the Warriors had management who were willing to let them play the style in which they can excel?  What if they had a veteran coach? What if Joe Lacob had actually supported this team with some veteran role players instead of hunting his big deal?

What if the corpse of Andris Biedrins had been amnestied, and Tyson Chandler — whom Mike D’Antoni recently called the best center in the league — had been “overpaid?”

What if pigs could fly?