The Soreness Element: 2012-13 Golden State Warriors Preview

Posted on October 28, 2012 by feltbot| 96 Comments

There’s a soreness element….  – Bob Myers

I’m going out of town this weekend, and just realized I won’t have time for my typical preseason Warriors forecast. This might upset me more if I felt like I had something useful to say about this upcoming season. But I actually don’t.

Joe Lacob has created a team that is utterly hostage to the ankle situations of Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry. Everything about this season is currently up in the air, starting with who will play, and ending with what style of basketball they will play. (Assuming of course, that the Warriors’ style of play will be influenced by the players they have available. That has never been a given for Joe Lacob’s amateur coaches.) What could I possibly say at this point about the 2012-13 Warriors that isn’t rampant speculation? Nothing.

So I’ll just let a few numbers do the talking for me. These three numbers, to be precise:

52.5

60.5

36.5

These three numbers express the future of this season’s Golden State Warriors far more eloquently than I can. Do you know what they are?

Jump for the cold, hard math:            Continue reading →

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Posted in Golden State Warriors, Predictions, Previews

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2012-2013 NBA Western Conference Rankings

Posted on October 22, 2012 by feltbot| 65 Comments

I’ve been waiting for Bogot long enough. With the start of the NBA season around the corner, it’s time for me to once again start putting my opinions on the line.

What follows are my regular season rankings for the Western Conference. Please note that my playoff rankings might differ considerably by the end of the season. My opinion of the Lakers is the most obvious example. If they manage to reach the end of the season with a healthy and rested (and somewhat deeper) roster, I will rank them higher for the playoffs.

Along with my ranking, I’m going to offer opinions of the Las Vegas regular-season win total lines for some teams. But when I offer a win total opinion in this post, that does NOT mean that I am going to bet this line. (I need a substantial perceived edge to bet. I’ll let you know which lines I’m betting in a later post.) Today’s opinions are just another way of stating which teams I think are over/undervalued headed into the regular season.                        Continue reading →

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Posted in Around the NBA, Golden State Warriors, Predictions

More 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts

Posted on October 15, 2012 by feltbot| 80 Comments

This is Part Two of my 2012-2013 Sleepers and Busts review. In Part One, I discussed Jrue Holiday, Dorell Wright, Kawhi Leonard, Monta Ellis, David Lee and Derrick Favors (Sleepers); and Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, Anthony Davis, OJ Mayo, John Wall and Jeremy Lin (Busts).

It’s mid-training camp now, and we have an actual idea who’s in shape, who’s injured, and how the position battles are shaping up. I’ve kicked into my serious draft preparation, because this is the sweet spot for holding your draft — the moment where a little work can give you a serious informational edge over your rivals.

I’ve reviewed the rosters and depth charts of every NBA team, and assembled a list below of players that I think are undervalued or overvalued relative to their rankings on Basketball Monster (the best ranking service I know). That is how I think of Sleepers and Busts — in terms of value. You may think you have identified a breakout candidate, but guess what? If the ranking services like Yahoo and CBS agree with you, then your breakout candidate will not be undervalued in your draft. In fact, he could very well be overvalued!

My picks might seem unconventional as a result. I like to think against the grain, because that’s the only way you can crush your draft.

Jump for fantasy value!                   Continue reading →

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Why Brandon Rush Must Start

Posted on October 11, 2012 by feltbot| 43 Comments

We’ve heard a lot in the press lately about the raging battle for the Warriors’ starting small forward role. It appears to be a two-way battle between last year’s standout reserve guard Brandon Rush, and the promising rookie lottery pick, Harrison Barnes. Aging all-star Richard Jefferson is apparently not in the running, despite the fact that he’s been the starting small forward on some pretty good teams every single year of his career.

Today’s news adds some fuel to the fire, as Barnes is slotted to start tonight’s exhibition against Maccabi Haifa, after Rush started the first two preseason games.

I’m not buying the hype on Barnes starting though. Jackson probably does want to get a look at Barnes playing with the first unit. But it is Maccabi Haifa. And the argument against Harrison Barnes starting for the Warriors this season is simply too strong. But that’s not the right way to put it. Here’s a better way:

If they want to win this season, the Golden State Warriors absolutely must start Brandon Rush.

Why? Jump for a two word answer.                          Continue reading →

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First Look: Warriors 83 Jazz 80 — Preseason

Posted on October 9, 2012 by feltbot| 37 Comments

Had a great time at the Warriors game tonight, courtesy of my poker buddy Micah Brown and his killer halfcourt season tickets. Thanks Micah!

Jump for a few of my observations:                       Continue reading →

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Feltbot’s 2012-2013 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts, Part One

Posted on September 23, 2012 by feltbot| 206 Comments

I normally like to wait until mid-training camp before drafting my fantasy basketball teams.  That gives me time to accumulate a little more information about which players are healthy and in shape to start the season, and which players might have increasing or decreasing roles with their teams. But many people are already starting to draft, and since I have nothing pleasant to discuss on the Warriors front, I’ll drop a few pre-training camp thoughts on the upcoming fantasy season.                                Continue reading →

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball

Cue the Bogosity: Andrew Bogut to Miss the Start of Training Camp

Posted on August 19, 2012 by feltbot| 269 Comments

OK, in a follow-up interview reported by Matt Steinmetz, Bogut has now all but admitted that he won’t by ready by training camp. As predicted by exactly how many Warriors writers?

One. One who was willing to do the research, tell the truth, and take the heat.  Continue reading →

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Waiting for Bogot

Posted on August 6, 2012 by feltbot| 180 Comments

“Saved from what?”

                                   – Estragon, Waiting for Godot

Well, we’ve certainly had some solid indications that Joe Lacob is finally finished tanking the Warriors, haven’t we?                 Continue reading →

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Posted in Golden State Warriors, Joe Lacob

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The Truth about Andrew Bogut

Posted on July 23, 2012 by feltbot| 260 Comments

“Training over. Good news on ankle: swelling is getting close to being all gone. Bad News: The less swelling the more achy.” — @AndrewMBogut

When I saw this tweet of Andrew Bogut’s last night, I knew that it was finally time to write this post. I’ve been contemplating writing it for some months. Ever since, in fact, Bogut gave that little interview near the end of last season to that Warriors shill, the interview that was supposed to be about how he’d just gotten out of his walking boot, and all was progressing well. But the interview didn’t go down that way. Before it ended, the naturally loquacious Bogut let slip that the temperature in his ankle was 10 degrees higher than normal. When I heard that, my eyebrows shot up. 10 degrees? Like, 108? I really wanted to hear more about this, but the shill quickly got the discussion back on course. This was, after all, not an actual interview. It was advertising, for the people that paid the shill’s wages, and meant to generate excitement and sell season tickets, not explore the truth.

Didn’t matter. Within a week, we all found out the truth about that 108 degree ankle: Bogut was scheduled for another surgery.               Continue reading →

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Notes on the Summer League

Posted on July 14, 2012 by feltbot| 184 Comments

OK, I watched most of the last two summer league games. And that will suffice for me. I have a limited appetite for wretched basketball, which is why I don’t watch college freshmen contend for NCAA titles. And my curiosity concerning the Warriors draftees has been sated.

Here are my notes on the players likely to make the Warriors roster: Continue reading →

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