Tag Archives: Grizzlies

Feltbot’s 2014-15 Western Conference Forecast

Once again we have an ultra-competitive Western Conference, where 48 wins might not be enough to to get into the playoffs, and a handful of teams have a legitimate shot at the top spot. Here’s my forecast, along with my picks against the Vegas Win-Totals Lines. Regular readers know I’ve had pretty good success with these historically, and particularly recently, going 10-1-1 the last two seasons. But I found only two lines to bet this season, because I demand a lot of edge, and I just don’t see it this year. Sometimes the bookies are pretty good.

[edit: I'm now betting THREE Western Conference lines, going over on the TWolves.]             Continue reading

Best in the West: Feltbot’s 2013-14 Western Conference Forecast — Part One

Anyone who tells you they know exactly how the West is going to shake out this season is deluded. This is probably the most wide open the top of the West has been in over 20 years. I give 5 different teams a legitimate chance (10% or better) to finish with the best record. It’s Open Season.

So when I tell you my pick for the top team in the West, you should understand that I’m only giving that team about a 20-25% chance of actually finishing on top. That just happens to be a higher percentage than I’m assigning any of the others.

What might be more interesting to you are my picks against the Vegas Win-Total lines. I’ve had a pretty good record with these historically, including last year, when I went 5-1. These lines are among the very few all year that the Vegas bookies can get egregiously wrong. Mainly because the preseason enthusiasms of the fans can have an outsized effect on them, but also because of the difficulty the experts have in forecasting the effects of new rosters and new coaches.

In reverse order (because, drama), here are my picks for the top 6 seeds in the West:  Continue reading

2013 NBA Playoffs Western Conference First Round Preview

Here’s my look at the first round of the Western Conference playoffs:  Continue reading

2012 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Round Two + Lakers vs Nuggets and Clippers vs Grizzlies Game Seven: Predictions

What’s the deal with the second round starting in the East before the first is finished in the West? Doesn’t seem right, particularly since it forced me to my keyboard on a sunny Saturday morning.

Confession: I didn’t watch a single Eastern conference first round playoff game, even though I had money wagered (Celtics ftw). Actually, I guess I did watch parts of a couple Celtics’ 4th quarters against the Hawks. And I did manage to come up with another firm betting rule for myself in the process: Rule 916: Never Bet on a Team that has Josh Smith.           Continue reading

Previews: Grizzlies v. Thunder, Game 7 + Heat v. Bulls, Game 1

Grizzlies v. Thunder, Game 7

This one has played out almost exactly as I believed it would.  The key to game 7 will be the officiating, as Jeff van Gundy slyly hinted in the last game when he said this regarding the Grizzlies’ physical defense of Kevin Durant: “I’m curious to see whether those bumps will be fouls in Oklahoma City.”                      Continue reading

NBA Playoffs Game 3 Previews: Lakers v. Mavs; Thunder v. Grizzlies; Bulls v. Hawks; Heat v. Celtics

Feltbot’s got action in every series in round 2, but after the first two games hit the books, only one series is really making him sweat.  Jump for the 411.

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NBA Playoffs Round 2 Preview: Lakers v. Mavs, Bulls v. Hawks, Celtics v. Heat, Thunder v. Grizzlies

One of the most intriguing NBA playoffs in recent memory didn’t disappoint in the first round.  Shockingly, the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs fell to the #8 Grizzlies.  But I don’t buy into the idea that this means the Grizzlies are now a better team than the Spurs.  Ginobili was playing with one arm, and Tim Duncan was probably only 80% coming off his late season ankle sprain. These sorts of unlucky injuries can mean everything in a playoff series. Remember Lebron on one arm?

The Atlanta Hawks also shocked the Orlando Magic.  Which shows conclusively that how a team plays down the stretch in the regular season means almost nothing.  Was there a worse team than the Hawks in the last month of the season?  I remember the Celtics were also horrible last year in March and April. And of course, the Lakers were 3-7 coming into these playoffs.

Round 2 begins tomorrow, and with it the promise of more intriguing matchups. Jump for the 411.                                                Continue reading