Once again we have an ultra-competitive Western Conference, where 48 wins might not be enough to to get into the playoffs, and a handful of teams have a legitimate shot at the top spot. Here’s my forecast, along with my picks against the Vegas Win-Totals Lines. Regular readers know I’ve had pretty good success with these historically, and particularly recently, going 10-1-1 the last two seasons. But I found only two lines to bet this season, because I demand a lot of edge, and I just don’t see it this year. Sometimes the bookies are pretty good.
[edit: I'm now betting THREE Western Conference lines, going over on the TWolves.] Continue reading
I’ll give you all I’ve got to give
If you say you love me too
I may not have a lot to give
But what I’ve got I’ll give to you
I don’t care too much for money
For money can’t buy me love
— Lennon and McCartney
Everyone is on pins and needles waiting for the Kevin Love trade to come down. I don’t get it. I simply don’t buy the prevailing media narrative that the Wolves have to make this deal before the season starts. That the offers the Wolves are seeing right now are the best they will get, and that they will lose leverage the longer they wait. Continue reading
I’m guessing this was just Mark Jackson experimenting in the preseason — hoping that’s what it was — but this loss was a simple case of playing the wrong lineup in the fourth quarter. It’s really as simple as that. Continue reading
Anyone who tells you they know exactly how the West is going to shake out this season is deluded. This is probably the most wide open the top of the West has been in over 20 years. I give 5 different teams a legitimate chance (10% or better) to finish with the best record. It’s Open Season.
So when I tell you my pick for the top team in the West, you should understand that I’m only giving that team about a 20-25% chance of actually finishing on top. That just happens to be a higher percentage than I’m assigning any of the others.
What might be more interesting to you are my picks against the Vegas Win-Total lines. I’ve had a pretty good record with these historically, including last year, when I went 5-1. These lines are among the very few all year that the Vegas bookies can get egregiously wrong. Mainly because the preseason enthusiasms of the fans can have an outsized effect on them, but also because of the difficulty the experts have in forecasting the effects of new rosters and new coaches.
In reverse order (because, drama), here are my picks for the top 6 seeds in the West: Continue reading
Posted in Around the NBA, Golden State Warriors, Predictions, Previews, Wagers
Tagged Clippers, Grizzlies, Rockets, Spurs, Stephen Curry, Thunder, Warriors
Here’s my look at the first round of the Western Conference playoffs: Continue reading
Marcus Thompson has just written a very nice profile of Bob Myers, who was recently announced as the new GM of the Golden State Warriors.
It is hard to take issue with such a positive piece about such a nice man. And Bob Myers is by all accounts a very nice man. But I do take issue with it.
Because Bob Myers is a lie.
Bob Myers is NOT the GM of the Golden State Warriors.
Can’t believe that I’m going to be missing two (one?) of the most dramatic games in Finals history… but c’est la vie. One does not live by basketball alone, as the Thaiblonde will attest.
One of the more intriguing aspects of these Finals is that both of these teams are playing Nellieball. In particular the Mavs, who are built almost exactly like the 2003 team that Nellie might have won a title with, if Dirk hadn’t gotten injured in the Conference Finals. That team featured Nash and Van Exel in the backcourt along with Finley, and Bradley and Lafrentz at the 5 next to Dirk. In addition to Finley, Nellie had 4 quintessential Nellieball defensive wings at his disposal: Bell, Griffin, Abdul-Wahad and Najera. Continue reading